Republicans’ chances of beating Dan McKee for Rhode Island governor—Poll

A new poll delivered red flags for Rhode Island Governor Dan McKee, a Democrat, ahead of his reelection bid next year.

Why It Matters

The poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire, suggests that a majority of Rhode Islanders are unhappy with McKee’s leadership ahead of the 2026 midterms, when Republicans could be eyeing the race as a potential opportunity to flip, despite the state’s long-standing record of being solidly Democratic.

Although the poll did not ask about specific head-to-head matchups for the election, the results could be troubling for Democrats in the state.

The state has not elected a Republican governor since 2006, though it did support independent former Governor Lincoln Chafee in 2011.

Newsweek reached out to McKee’s campaign via email for comment.

What to Know

Only 19 percent of Rhode Islanders approve of McKee’s job performance, while 71 percent disapprove of him, according to the survey of 653 Rhode Island residents from May 22 to May 26, 2025. The poll had a margin of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

It found that 74 percent of all Rhode Island voters—including 60 percent of Democrats—do not believe McKee deserves to be reelected; only 11 percent said they think he deserves to be reelected.

Thirty-two percent of respondents said they want to see Democrat Helena Foulkes, a businesswoman who challenged McKee in 2022, to run again, while 23 percent said they want Republican Ashley Kalus to jump into the race. Only 19 percent said they want to see former Governor Gina Raimondo, who served as Commerce secretary under former President Joe Biden, run.

At the same time, the poll found that President Donald Trump is also unpopular in the state. Only 37 percent of respondents gave him positive marks, compared to 61 percent who disapproved of his performance during his first few months back in the Oval Office.

Joe Powers, chairman of the Rhode Island Republican Party, described the poll as a “glaring reflection of the Governor’s failed leadership and the growing dissatisfaction among Rhode Islanders” in a statement to Newsweek, pointing to the closure of the Washington Bridge, pay raises for the governor’s cabinet and the sanctuary state designation as key issues the state is facing.

“The upcoming 2026 gubernatorial race, while traditionally leaning Democratic, is poised to be highly competitive. The Republican Party of Rhode Island is committed to presenting a viable alternative—one that prioritizes transparency, fiscal responsibility, and the genuine needs of our citizens,” he said.

While McKee remains unpopular, according to the poll, a Republican victory in the state may not be an easy feat, given the state’s Democratic lean. It backed Vice President Kamala Harris by nearly 14 points in 2024 and voted for Biden by more than 20 points in 2020.

On the presidential level, Rhode Island has not voted for a Republican since 1984.

McKee, who assumed office after Raimondo resigned to join the Biden administration, won his first full term in office in 2022, defeating Kalus by nearly 20 points.

What People Are Saying

WPRI political analyst Joe Fleming told the Providence-based news station: “The governor has some serious work to do over the next six months or so to show voters that he’s doing a good job and deserves reelection. If he can’t do that, I think you’ll see Democrats lining up to run for the office.”

McKee told WJAR in March: “I think that we’ve made a great deal of progress, keeping people safe during the COVID certainly was important, opening the businesses at that time. Keeping people safe when I shut down the bridge, the Washington Bridge, and now we’re actually in the process of rebuilding that bridge and have the money in place.”

What Happens Next

It remains to be seen whether McKee will face a primary challenge from fellow Democrats or which Republicans may enter the race. The primary is still more than a year away on September 8, 2026. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as being Solid Democratic, though Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifies it as Likely Democratic.