Foulkes still holds 20-point lead over McKee, but gap is narrowing

• A new poll shows Helena Foulkes leading Gov. Dan McKee by 20 points in the Democratic primary for governor.
• McKee has narrowed the gap from a 34-point deficit in April, following a series of TV attack ads.
• The poll indicates McKee remains unpopular among likely Democratic primary voters, with 56% holding an unfavorable opinion of him.
• In a hypothetical general election, Foulkes holds a significant lead, while a McKee nomination could result in a close three-way race.

PROVIDENCE – Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes still leads Gov. Dan McKee by double-digits in the Democratic primary race for governor, but her whopping 34-point lead of last April has shrunk to 20 points in the wake of McKee’s TV attack ads, according to a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll.

The survey sampled 337 likely 2026 Democratic state primary voters, 145 likely Republican state primary voters and 664 likely general election voters between June 18 and June 23.

Among the key findings of the survey:

If the Democratic primary had been held while the survey was underway, 42% of likely primary voters would have chosen Foulkes and 22% would have chosen McKee, with restaurant owner Gregory Stevens and Wil Gregersen each getting 1%, the poll said. Thirty-one percent of respondents were undecided.

“Pluralities of moderates (46%), liberals (46%), and progressives (46%) support Foulkes, while two-thirds of socialists (66%) are undecided. McKee does best among those aged 65 and older (31%) but still trailsFoulkes (46%) among this group,” according to this poll.

McKee has narrowed the gap somewhat since the last UNH poll in April, when 45% of likely primary voters chose Foulkes and only 11% McKee.

Bottom line: Incumbent McKee, a former Cumberland mayor and lieutenant governor who has been governor since his predecessor Gina Raimondo quit mid-term in March 2021, “remains quite unpopular among likely Democratic primary voters: only 18% have a favorable opinion of him, 56% have an unfavorable opinion,” according to the poll released on Tuesday, June 30.

And then there’s this: In a hypothetical matchup between Foulkes, whoever emerges as the Republican nominee and independent Ken Block, the poll showed 38% of likely general election voters would vote for Foulkes, 22% would vote for the Republican nominee and 19% for Block.

If, however, McKee won the Democratic nomination, the potential matchup “would be very close,” with both McKee and Block getting 27% of the likely general election vote and the GOP nominee 23%; 2% would vote for another candidate. Twenty-one percent were undecided, according to the poll.

The poll is the latest in a string of bad news for the 74-year-old McKee, including his failure to clinch the endorsement of the state Democratic Party on June 20.

Depending on how you do the math, he fell three votes short of the endorsement, making him the first Democratic governor in Rhode Island to fail to win his party’s endorsement for a reelection bid since the modern primary system was created in 1948.

In the days since, Foulkes has racked up city and town Democratic committee endorsements, while McKee has only won endorsements from Pawtucket and North Providence Democrats. On Tuesday, June 30, he touted one more from the East Providence Democratic City Committee.

But McKee campaign spokeswoman Sophie Mestas hailed the poll as evidence that “the more Rhode Islanders learn about Helena Foulkes – a corporate executive who built her career on cutting healthcare access and fueling the opioid crisis – the more they want no part of her empty promises.

“More Rhode Islanders now view her unfavorably than favorably, and it’s not hard to see why,” Mestas said. “Rhode Islanders know the difference between a Governor who delivers for them and an executive who cashed in at their expense – and they’re choosing the Governor who’s always fought for working families.”

Her statement reflects disputed allegations in McKee’s TV ads about Foulkes’ record.

On the Republican front, those surveyed chose retired comedian Elaine Pelino, who has campaigned almost exclusively on Facebook (38%), over the state GOP’s endorsed candidate, Aaron Guckian (19%), an advance man and driver for former Gov. Donald Carcieri who most recently worked for the Rhode Island Dental Association.