‘Classic Nor’easter’ forecast for RI. When will the snow start?

In recent days, the projected storm track has shifted northeast, meaning a bigger impact on Southern New England

• A winter storm watch has been extended to all of Southern New England for a coastal storm from Sunday into Monday.
• The storm could become a “classic Nor’easter,” potentially bringing 12 to 18 inches of snow to Rhode Island.
• Blizzard conditions, wind gusts over 50 mph, and power outages are possible, especially near the coast.
• The heaviest snowfall is expected Sunday night into Monday, with treacherous travel conditions possible.

The National Weather Service has extended its winter storm watch to include all of Southern New England, as a coastal storm Sunday into Monday could evolve into a “classic Nor’easter” and drop 12 to 18 inches of snow on Rhode Island.

As of early Saturday morning, Feb 21, forecasters say the highest snow totals are expected along and southeast of the Interstate 95 corridor “with slightly lower amounts farther inland,” the weather service says in its forecast discussion.

“Blizzard conditions are possible near the coast, as well as” Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, the weather service said.

“Whiteout conditions are possible and may make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening,” the winter storm watch says.

The wind could gust over 50 mph in much of southern Rhode Island and coastal southeastern Massachusetts, according to the weather service.

The high winds and wet snow increase the likelihood of power outages, the weather service says.

Likely storm track has shifted closer

Forecasters have been monitoring the potential track of the storm for several days. Lately, computer models have been coming into agreement on a closer track to the coast.

“Consensus in guidance shows a more classic Nor’easter track with low pressure emerging off Cape Hatteras Sunday evening, then rapidly deepening as it passes near the 40N/70W benchmark Monday afternoon,” the weather service says in its forecast discussion.

In trying to determine the impact of coastal winter storms, forecasters consider how close the storm will come to a benchmark about 80 miles southeast of Nantucket, at 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude.

When will the storm start?

“The area of highest snowfall and greatest impacts is still somewhat uncertain, but a widespread high-impact event appears more likely with the latest forecast cycle,” the forecast discussion says.

The snow should start sometime between Sunday afternoon and evening, with the peak snowfall Sunday night into Monday, before the snow tapers off Monday evening, the weather service says. There’s a chance the snow could hold off until Monday, it says.