12 News/Emerson Poll: Foulkes leads McKee by double-digits in RI gov primary

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) — Helena Foulkes has opened up a 20-point lead over incumbent Dan McKee in the Democratic primary for governor, with just three months left before the first ballots are cast, an exclusive 12 News/Emerson College poll released Tuesday shows.

The survey of 565 likely Democratic primary voters finds Foulkes at 40% and McKee at 20%, with 37% undecided and 3% saying they support someone else. The 12 News/Emerson poll is the third survey in the last two months showing McKee down by double-digits.

“The race for governor hasn’t moved in six months,” 12 News political analyst Joe Fleming said. “Helena Foulkes is still holding a commanding lead. McKee has done nothing that’s moved the needle to close that gap. And he’s running out of time very quickly.”

McKee — who is seeking to extend his tenure as governor to 10 years — is viewed unfavorably by 60% of all voters and favorably by only 21%. McKee’s numbers are better but still negative among likely primary voters, 50% of whom view him unfavorably. Among registered Democrats only, McKee’s unfavorable rating is 43%.

A key challenge for McKee: he is underwater by 14 points among undecided primary voters, with 26% viewing him favorably, 26% viewing him neutrally, and 40% viewing him unfavorably.

“If you’re being viewed unfavorably by the undecided voters, how are you going to get their votes?” Fleming said. “He’s had the last five or six months as the governor who’s out there all the time to try to move the numbers — the numbers have never moved.”

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Foulkes, a former CVS executive who placed a close second to McKee after a late surge in the 2022 primary, remains less of a known quantity to voters despite her lead in the primary. Her numbers among all voters are slightly negative, with 27% viewing her favorably and 29% viewing her unfavorably, but over 40% of voters either view her neutrally or have never heard of her.

Unlike McKee, however, Foulkes is viewed positively by likely primary voters, at 35% favorable and 23% unfavorable, though even among that group 42% express no opinion about her. Her numbers are similar among registered Democrats.

Fleming noted Foulkes has a significant financial advantage to reach voters who haven’t formed an opinion yet, with $3.6 million in cash on hand compared with McKee’s $1.4 million. “She can spend it over the next three and a half months,” he said.

Less than three hours before release of the 12 News/Emerson poll, the McKee campaign announced that it had conducted its own survey last week. But the campaign didn’t reveal whether McKee was behind or ahead, and the governor told 12 News on Tuesday, “I don’t have those numbers.”

McKee’s campaign poll tested a variety of attacks on Foulkes, and his campaign released a memo arguing that the attacks would shift some voters against her. The Foulkes campaign did not immediately respond.

The 12 News/Emerson poll was conducted May 14-16 and surveyed 1,000 likely Rhode Island voters using text-to-web and online panel interviews. The overall credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, is plus or minus 3 percentage points, rising to 4.1 points for the Democratic primary subset.

McKee, Foulkes both lead November election

Yet the 12 News/Emerson poll also shows that if McKee finds a way to turn around his campaign and defeat Foulkes in the primary, he is in position to win another four years as governor.

Among all 1,000 likely voters surveyed, McKee leads a hypothetical November election matchup with 33%, against 22% each for the Republican nominee and independent Ken Block, while 17% are undecided and 6% are supporting someone else.

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Foulkes fares even better in the general election matchup, with 39% support, followed by the Republican nominee at 21% and Block at 19%, with 18% undecided. Two Republicans, Aaron Guckian and Elaine Pelino, are vying for the GOP nomination.

Block, a Barrington businessman who ran for governor as a third-party candidate in 2010 and a Republican candidate in 2014, pulls votes from across the political spectrum. In a race against McKee, Block wins 16% of Republicans, 14% of Democrats and 30% of independents.

“Ken Block is going to divide Republican votes,” Fleming said. “So if he’s dividing the Republican vote, it’s going to be very difficult for a Republican or an independent to win the race over whoever the Democratic nominee is.”

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Block is better known than Guckian, who was the 2022 GOP nominee for lieutenant governor. Among all voters, Block is viewed favorably by 19% and unfavorably by 23%, with the rest neutral or unfamiliar. Guckian is viewed favorably by 10% and unfavorably by 15%, but nearly half of voters have never heard of him.

Most voters on the fence in AG primary

The 12 News/Emerson poll also tested the Democratic primary for attorney general, which is an open contest since incumbent Peter Neronha is term-limited.

The race is wide open.

The survey shows former R.I. Cannabis Control Commission chair Kim Ahern and Warwick state Rep. Joe Solomon Jr. tied at 9% each, trailed slightly by former Neronha policy chief Keith Hoffmann and Barrington state Rep. Jason Knight, both of whom are at 5%. But almost three out of four voters — 72% — are undecided.

Fleming said all the candidates need to continue raising money to get their message out to voters.

“What could help in this election is the Democratic Party endorsement,” Fleming said. “A lot of times an endorsement doesn’t mean that much, but right here you have four candidates running, and none of them are well known at all. If you have the party endorsement, that might pick you up 4% or 5% of the vote.”

More results from the poll will be released tonight on 12 News at 10 and 11 p.m.

Alexandra Leslie contributed to this report.

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