Pittsburg, PA
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-15-2024
We’ve made it through the regular season and for 18 teams, their year is over. For 14 teams with hopes of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, their dream lives on, at least for another week. Twelve of those teams play this weekend with the winner moving on and the loser going home for the offseason. In an AFC Wild Card Round matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers take the short trip to take on the Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh finished their regular season slate with a 17-10 road win over Baltimore last Saturday, covering the line as a three-point favorite. Buffalo downed Miami 21-14 on the road last Sunday, covering the line as a 2.5-point favorite. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Steelers own a 15-11 edge though the Bills rolled to a 38-3 home win in the most recent meeting on October 9, 2022. They have met in the postseason three times with the Steelers owning a 2-1 edge, though they haven’t met in the playoffs since 1996.
(This game has been moved to Monday at 4:30pmET due to weather conditions in Buffalo)
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Pittsburgh Steelers Looking to Maintain Late Season Charge
Pittsburgh won three straight to close the regular season and earned a playoff spot by beating Baltimore, coupled by Jacksonville losing to Tennessee. The Steelers finished the regular season 10-7 overall and look to earn the road upset here. Against Baltimore, Pittsburgh overcame wintry conditions and took advantage of the fact that the Ravens sat a majority of their starters to earn a victory. The Steelers led 7-0 after the opening quarter, were even at the half and after three quarters. Pittsburgh took the lead for good on the first play of the fourth quarter on a 71-yard touchdown pass to Diontae Johnson and went on to the victory. The Steelers owned a 289-224 edge in total offense, held a 16-13 advantage in first downs and controlled the clock by a 34:04 to 25:56 margin. Each team turned the ball over twice in the game.
TAE TIME @Juiceup__3
📺: #PITvsBUF 1/14 at 1 PM ET on CBS pic.twitter.com/E6eVZ9nz4M
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 8, 2024
The Steelers finished the regular season 25th in the league in passing offense as they average 186.1 yards per game through the air. The team is 13th in the league in rushing offense as they put up an average of 118.2 yards per contest. Pittsburgh is 28th in the league in scoring offense with 17.9 points per contest and 6th in scoring defense as they allow 19.1 points per game. Kenny Pickett is 201 of 324 passing for 2,070 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions on the year. He contributes 54 yards and a score on the ground. Mitch Trubisky is 67 of 107 for 632 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions in limited action. Mason Rudolph is 55 of 74 for 719 yards with three scores. Najee Harris leads the team on the ground with 255 carries for 1,035 yards plus eight scores. Jaylen Warren (149 carries, 784 yards, four TD) is the #2 back in the ground game this season. Diontae Johnson has 51 receptions totaling 717 yards and five scores on the season, putting him third on the team. George Pickens (63 catches, 1140 yards, five TD), Pat Freiermuth (32 grabs, 308 yards, two TD), Allen Robinson II (34 catches, 280 yards), Calvin Austin III (17 grabs, 180 yards, TD) and Warren (61 receptions, 370 yards) have been active as well. Chris Boswell has hit 27 of 28 extra point attempts and 29 of 31 field goal attempts this season with a long of 57 on the year.
Pittsburgh’s biggest injury is T.J. Watt (knee), who led the league with 19 sacks. He sprained his MCL against the Ravens and is out here.
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Buffalo Bills Shoot to Keep Rolling
Buffalo won their final five games in the regular season, all coming after their bye in week 13, and their triumph over Miami on the road last week gave them the AFC East crown for the fourth straight season. The Bills finished the regular season 11-6 and look to carry that momentum to the postseason. Against Miami, Buffalo had their struggles finishing drives but made the plays in all three phases of the game in crunch time to earn the victory. The Bills trailed 14-7 at the half and after three quarters before Deonte Harty’s franchise-record 96-yard punt return for a score tied the game early in the fourth quarter. Buffalo forced a three-and-out, then went down the field again, capped by a five-yard touchdown pass to Dawson Knox, to take the lead with 7:16 to play. The Bills’ defense held from there, forcing another three-and-out, followed by Taylor Rapp’s interception with 1:13 to play, which allowed them to run out the clock. Buffalo rolled up a massive 473-275 edge in total offense, picked up a 26-16 advantage in first downs and dominated time of possession by a 38:07 to 21:53 margin. Those numbers helped overshadow the fact that they turned the ball over three times while forcing two takeaways.
LET’S GO, @tayynation1‼️
📺: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/DBOCwnG1ey
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 8, 2024
On the year, the Bills are eighth in the league in passing offense with an average of 244.4 yards per game and 7th in rushing with an average of 130.1 yards per contest. Buffalo is sixth in the league in scoring offense by putting up 26.5 points per contest and they are fourth in the league in scoring defense by allowing 18.3 points per game. Josh Allen is 385 of 579 passing for 4,306 yards with 29 touchdowns and 18 interceptions on the season. He is second on the team on the ground with 524 rushing yards and 15 scores. James Cook leads the run game with 237 carries for 1,122 yards and two scores. Latavius Murray (79 carries, 300 yards, three TD) and Ty Johnson (30 carries, 132 yards) have also seen work on the ground. Stefon Diggs is the team’s top receiver as he has hauled in 107 passes for 1,183 yards and eight touchdowns. Gabe Davis (45 catches, 746 yards, seven TD), Cook (44 receptions, 445 yards, four TD), Dalton Kincaid (73 grabs, 673 yards, two TD) and Khalil Shakir (39 grabs, 611 yards, two TD) are each over the 400-yard mark in receiving yards. Tyler Bass is 49 of 50 on extra point attempts and 24 of 29 on field goal attempts with a long of 54 this season.
Buffalo has several names to monitor going through the rest of the week on the injury report. Safety Taylor Rapp (calf), defensive ends Leonard Floyd (rest) and Von Miller (rest), cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) and wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) all didn’t practice Wednesday. Tackle Dion Dawkins (hand), running back Ty Johnson (concussion) and linebacker Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) were each limited. Watch for updates over the coming days for new information.
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These teams have some similarities when you look at them. Both teams fired their offensive coordinators during the season. Each side closed the season on a win streak with Pittsburgh winning three straight games while Buffalo won five in a row. The Steelers have their work cut out for them here, especially without Watt. He’s a disruptor and a force to be reckoned with that has to be accounted for on every play. Without him, the Steelers have to try and regroup defensively, which is a challenge. Rudolph has been solid after taking over the QB role down the stretch but he’s making his first postseason start here. Allen, through the good and the bad, has been here before. That, with the home field advantage of the Bills Mafia, helps Buffalo advance to the divisional round.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills -9.5
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Pittsburgh has stayed under the total in 11 of their 17 games on the year. Six of the Steelers’ eight road games this season have wound up under the number. Buffalo has seen the under go 11-6 in their 17 games on the year. The Bills have stayed under the total in five of their eight home games on the year, including five of their last six contests at Highmark Stadium. Weather could be a major factor with lake effect snow and winds upward of 20 miles per hour wreaking havoc. Those factors have driven the number down substantially and it might be a little too low here. Look for this game to wind up over the number.
Prediction: Over 35
Pittsburg, PA
Kozora: In 2027, Pittsburgh’s Wallet Will Open Wide For Its Offensive Line
Like the offseasons that have preceded it, 2027 will be about the quarterback. Do the Pittsburgh Steelers bank on Will Howard or Drew Allar as the future? Is the answer in the 2027 draft? Is there another door to open? Until there’s a long-term solution, it will always dominate the conversation.
Putting aside the obvious, the other top storyline centers on the men asked to protect the quarterback. Pittsburgh’s 2027 offseason will be defined by paying its offensive line, a good but expensive problem to have.
Even knowing Broderick Jones isn’t likely to receive a new deal, Omar Khan will have discussions with virtually everyone else. The 2023 draft class all could be in line for summer extensions: OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier and OG Mason McCormick. None will hit free agency until 2028, and Fautanu has the fifth-year option, but all three will be first-time eligible for a deal, and deserving of one. The longer teams wait, the more they pay.
McCormick might be the cheapest, but even that is a relative term. The guard market’s heated up the past two offseason cycles. His going rate could be $20 million per season.
Robert Hunt signed a five-year, $100 million deal with the Carolina Panthers in 2024. This past offseason, Will Fries inked a five-year, $87.72 million, that’s $17.5 mil per year, with the Minnesota Vikings.
Given the salary cap’s projected increase, McCormick could be looking at a similar figure. Perhaps a slightly shorter deal, a four-year extension with his final rookie year rolled into the agreement, but a big money pact all the same.
Although McCormick hasn’t received the fanfare of Frazier or Fautanu, he broke out in 2025. His run and pass blocking improved. He was durable and didn’t miss a single snap.
Frazier’s market has spiked. Thank Tyler Linderbaum for that. He didn’t just reset but shattered the center market this offseason, leaving the Baltimore Ravens for the Las Vegas Raiders on a three-year, $81 million deal. His $27 million APY blows away second place Creed Humphrey and his $18 million mark. Now, every center next to get paid will want to get near that figure.
Unless Frazier truly has an All-Pro seasons, he probably won’t surpass him. Something in the 20-million range, say $22 million per year, is realistic. Frazier’s been steady and solid in the middle, and Pittsburgh won’t want to start its pivot search again.
Then there’s Fautanu. Flipping and likely staying at left tackle, he’s playing a premium position. Even if the thinking is antiquated, blindside protectors still get paid more than their right side counterparts. The Colts’ Bernard Raimann signed a four-year, $100 million contract in July, 2025. In January, Charles Cross went for an average of $26.1 million.
Fautanu will be looking for the same if not more. He’ll definitely want more than whatever Frazier commands at center. Fautanu could push for upwards of $30 million per year if his season is good enough.
There is a caveat. Fautanu’s fifth-year option is due next May, and it’s likely to get be exercised. If so, he’ll be the first by a homegrown Steeler since T.J. Watt. But that also could extend out the timeline of an extension by one season. Minkah Fitzpatrick and Watt had to wait one year from their option due dates to receive their extension. If Fautanu follows the same, his contract won’t come until 2028.
It would be rare for Pittsburgh to get a deal done with Fautanu two years out, but the longer the team waits, the more he’ll cost. And if he has a great year, Pittsburgh, under Omar Khan and Mike McCarthy, who have never been in charge of a fifth year option situation in Pittsburgh before, might think about things differently. Age is a factor, too. Fautanu was an older prospect coming out of school. If Pittsburgh waits until 2028, Fautanu will be 27-going-on-28. Hardly old but the sooner he plays out an extension, the better the odds are for the Steelers to get good return on the deal.
Either way, there will be at least some level of financial component to Fautanu next offseason. Either just his fifth-year option, an amount likely worth over $20 million, and the chance of a long-term pact.
Naturally, this all presumes McCormick, Frazier, and Fautanu stay healthy and play well this season. Health is unpredictable, but it’s reasonable to think all three will continue thriving on the field. Pittsburgh’s invested so much in its offensive line and deserves credit for it. Soon will come the time to keep the group together. The “retain” part of draft, develop, retain.
Fautanu and McCormick are shifting back to their college homes. Frazier has been nothing but excellent out of the gate. Pittsburgh won’t want to break the band up.
In average value, the deals could look like this:
Mason McCormick: $20 million per season
Zach Frazier: $22-23 million per season
Troy Fautanu: $28 million per season (potentially $30 million-plus if his timeline waits another season).
Big, big money.
They aren’t the only ones to think about. Dylan Cook might be one of the most interesting debates next year. He’s slated to become a restricted free agent that can pay him the first substantial money of his NFL career.
A refresher: teams can place a tender on a RFA: first, second, or original round. The other 31 teams can still submit a contract offer. If Pittsburgh declines to match, they lose the player but gain the pick corresponding to the tender.
Here’s 2027’s tender projections:
First Round: $8.735 million
Second Round: $6.261 million
Original Round: $3.822 million
Because Cook went undrafted, the original round tender would only give Pittsburgh the right of first refusal and the opportunity to match the contract. If not, they won’t receive a draft pick back.
That puts the team in an interesting position. Apply the original round tender and the team could save money. But it also opens themselves to teams submitting an offer for a still-young tackle without getting any compensation in return.
Applying the second round tender makes more sense. But it will cost more. Likely behind Max Iheanachor and Fautanu, he’ll be an expensive backup.
What’s the right answer? Hard to say. But paying for good offensive linemen is worth it, and the money “saved” by declining Broderick Jones’ fifth-year option can be applied to Cook.
There’s other names to consider. Spencer Anderson is in the final year of his rookie deal. Gennings Dunker appears to be the long-term hope, but what if Anderson wins the starting right guard job and holds onto it? It won’t be so easy to just let him walk. Brock Hoffman signed a one-year deal and will be a free agent next year. Will Pittsburgh re-sign him for depth? They could.
Then, there’s Jones. His future with the team looks bleak, but is there a scenario in which he returns? As Dave Bryan outlined on the podcast, Jones’ contract, in theory, could toll and roll over into 2027 if, and it’s a big if, he spends the entire 2026 season on Reserve/PUP due to his neck injury.
If not and he becomes a free agent, would Pittsburgh sign him back as a swing tackle? Probably not, but if Jones walks, and Cook gets poached on the tender, the team’s depth will have taken a big hit.
Pittsburgh’s 2027 offseason could be similar to 2014. That June, Maurkice Pouncey signed a five-year extension to become the NFL’s highest-paid center. Two months later, Marcus Gilbert signed his own five-year deal. It was part of an effort to keep the group intact.
This time around, Pittsburgh could pay three players and for substantially more money. Combined, Pouncey and Gilbert’s contracts amounted to about $74 million. Any one of Frazier’s, McCormick’s, or Fautanu’s deals could surpass that.
These aren’t complaints. Having talented draft picks to pay is welcome news for a team who has missed far too often. Only one selection of the 2020 class, EDGE Alex Highsmith, saw a multi-year second contract.
Ditto with the 2021 group – TE Pat Freiermuth. The 2022 class had none. Opening up the wallet for these names is what a team wants. But it’s a storyline and projection that hasn’t been discussed much, and one worth getting in front of.
It’s also relevant for national talking heads like Colin Cowherd who criticize the team for spending so much on defense. Those scales will tip back if these deals get done.
McCormick. Fautanu. Frazier. Cook. Anderson. Jones. Hoffman. All offensive line decisions to work through.
Answers will come in time. There’s an entire season to play, and what we expect now versus next year’s reality are often different things. But the last time we did this, we noted George Pickens’ future would come into focus in the 2025 offseason. It did by Pittsburgh trading him to Dallas.
General managers have to be forward-thinking, especially with these large contracts that will impact the cap. Having a quarterback on a cheap contract will help, and Pittsburgh should have the money to sign whoever they want.
Next offseason will be a busy one. Quarterback will grab the national headlines, but the offensive line will be where the money, and important decisions, will be made.
Pittsburg, PA
Pirates Shockingly Place Carmen Mlodzinski on Restricted List
PITTSBURGH — The Pittsburgh Pirates made a recent move to their rotation, which has resulted in a surprising move from one player.
The Pirates announced that they placed right-handed pitcher Carmen Mlodzinski on the restricted list and recalled right-handed pitcher Cam Sanders from Triple-A Indianapolis ahead of their series finale vs. the Minnesota Twins at PNC Park on May 31.
A player going on the restricted list means that they either left the team without a valid reason, or could be announcing retirement, but may consider returning in the near future to play later on.
It is a shocking decision, as there was no indication something like this was happening and makes a big change to the Pirates pitching staff moving forward.
Why Pirates May Have Placed Mlodzinski on Restricted List
This case with Mlodzinski is likely the former, although not confirmed, as he was in the clubhouse ahead of the game, so something may have happened closer to first pitch.
Pirates manager Don Kelly announced postgame in the 10-9 win on May 30 that Mlodzinski would follow right-handed starting pitcher Braxton Ashcraft in the series finale.
Mlodzinski was a part of the Pirates starting rotation for the first two months of the season, but Jared Jones recently came off the injured list and took his role in the rotation, with the Pirates sending Mlodzinski back to the bullpen.
He said following the decision that he would talk with his agency and those close to him, so he may have decided to depart the team after this.
“Obviously just excited to have Jared back with us,” Mlodzinski said. “I can honestly say I’m just still communicating with the organization and the people in my corner, whether that’s my family or my agency, about what is next. I really don’t have any comments after that.”
How This Changes Pirates Pitching Staff
Mlodzinski has been an effective relief pitcher with the Pirates, with a 2.63 ERA over 140.1 innings pitched and 94 appearances.
The Pirates had plans for Mlodzinski as a bulk reliever, but someone that can also fill any role, including in high-leverage situations and as a middle reliever, something the team has seriously needed.
His departure hurts a Pirates bullpen that has really looked for consistent arms that can get outs, preserve leads and give the team a chance to make a comeback late.
Sanders has struggled in his time in MLB with the Pirates, with a 9.26 ERA over 11 appearances, a .300 batting average allowed and a 2.20 WHIP.
The Pirates can make a few decisions on Mlodzinski, who could technically still comeback, but it looks like they will trade him at this point.
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Pittsburg, PA
I Need a Pridefest Buddy – Pittsburgh Lesbian Correspondents
Amidst over 70 Pride festivals in Pennsylvania, I stand alone as none of my friends want to go. Not the big Pittsburgh Pride, not the small community park festivals.
This feels upside down. I’m a lesbian blogger and have no Pride friends?
I respect personal decisions, but this is a year to show up. Show up even just for an hour. Buy something, throw some coin in a basket. Our community might crumble. Showing up for Pride is not the same ask as door knocking or phone banking. Connect with people without saying a word. Remind yourself who we are. Send a message. Insert more little sayings. You get my point.
I decided to skip tabling this year. My energy is low. If I go to Pride, I want to just be one of the folx.
I wouldn’t actually mind going solo, but I have no vehicle. Gertie is still not running. Should I Uber? How long might I have to wait for a drive home?
Tomorrow, May 31 is Ross Township. I might Uber there.
Saturday, June 6 is New Castle Pride in Lawrence County.
Sunday June 7 is Pittsburgh and Connellsville. I can walk to Pittsburgh.
Saturday June 13 is tough – Indiana, Oil City, Mt. Lebo, Scottdale
Sunday, June 14 is Vandergrift and Freeport
Saturday June 20 is Millvale
Sunday June 28 is Forest Hills, Dormont, and Hazelwood
Monday June 29 is Aspinwall/Fox Chapel
Showing up in Lawrence, Fayette, Indiana, Venango, Westmoreland, Armstrong counties feels important.
What do you think?
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