Why my small town in Pennsylvania will decide the US election

As an old, blue-collar, industrial city, Erie represents a microcosm of the diversity of the state. Alongside its abandoned factories, the city is home to a Fortune 400 company, Erie Insurance, regional hospitals and colleges, and a fast-growing refugee population, with recent arrivals from Syria and Afghanistan. Past the city limits, you hit farmland and properties emblazoned with Trump signs.

While Harris’ ground game in Pennsylvania will be to run up the vote in urban centres like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh – targeting women, university-educated voters and black and minority voters – she also needs places like Erie.

With Walz in her pocket, Harris will try to claw back the white working-class voters – especially men – who historically voted Democrat but flipped for Trump in 2016. These voters are long aggrieved by a belief that trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement – a Bill Clinton-engineered pact that removed most tariffs on products and services passing between the US, Canada, and Mexico – destroyed their communities. Trump tapped into the pain of these voters with his “America First” protectionist pitch.

Whether Walz and Harris can enthuse working-class voters remains an open question. The decision by a powerful national union, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, to withhold its endorsement this election cycle portends the challenge ahead for the Harris-Walz ticket. With 1.3 million members – including everyone from truck drivers to warehouse workers – the transportation union has consistently backed Democratic candidates for nearly 30 years. In making its decision, the union released internal polling showing majority support for Trump among its membership.

While Trump has courted the vote of working Americans, he is also going after other historically Democratic constituencies. In Pennsylvania, this includes Hispanic communities which have grown as the demographics shifted in places like Lancaster and Allentown. At a rally in Johnstown on 30 August, Trump invited Puerto Rican rapper Anuel AA on stage: Anuel AA documented the event to his 38 million followers on Instagram wearing a MAGA hat.

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With polling averages showing Trump and Harris neck and neck in Pennsylvania, it will come down to the razor’s edge. In 2016, Trump won the state by only 44,000 votes, while in 2020, Biden won it by 80,000. If history is any indication, a crowd size that wouldn’t fill the MCG may determine the next president of the United States. To see which way that crowd is moving, keep your eyes on Erie County.

Sarah Smiles Persinger is a former Age and Herald journalist and an editor at the United States Studies Centre. She lived in Erie, Pennsylvania from 2012 to 2023.

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