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Trump’s slight lead in Pennsylvania could give him Electoral College win; Biden a drag on Harris

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Trump’s slight lead in Pennsylvania could give him Electoral College win; Biden a drag on Harris


The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.5, a slight gain for Trump since Monday, when Harris led by 48.6–47.4. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

In Silver’s averages, Trump has a 0.6-point lead in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), up from 0.3 on Monday. Trump has slightly larger leads of one to two points in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11). Harris is narrowly ahead by 0.1 point in Nevada (six) and about one point ahead in Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (ten).

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If current polls are exactly right, Trump wins the Electoral College by 281–257. Not making Pennsylvania’s popular governor Josh Shapiro her running mate could be Harris’ biggest mistake.

In Silver’s model, Trump has a 54% chance to win the Electoral College, slightly higher than 53% on Monday. There’s a 29% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 51% win probability.

Without a major event, there isn’t likely to be much change in the polls before the election, but a polling error where one candidate overperforms their polls could still occur. Silver’s model gives Trump a 22% probability of sweeping the seven swing states and Harris a 12.5% probability.

I wrote about the US election for The Poll Bludger yesterday, and also covered three Canadian provincial elections and Japan’s conservative LDP, which has governed almost continuously since 1955, losing its majority at an election last Sunday.

Biden a drag on Harris and favourability ratings

Joe Biden remains unpopular with a net -16.5 approval in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate, with 55.8% disapproving and 39.3% approving. As Harris is the incumbent party’s candidate, an unpopular president is a key reason for Trump’s edge.

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Biden’s remarks on Tuesday, in which he seemed to call Trump supporters “garbage”, resembled Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” in the 2016 presidential campaign. This won’t help Harris.

Biden is almost 82, Trump is 78 and Harris is 60. Trump’s age should be a factor in this election that favours Harris, but Silver said on October 19 that Democrats spent so much time defending Biden before he withdrew on July 21 that it’s now difficult for them to attack Trump’s age without seeming hypocritical.

Harris’ net favourability in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate is -1.5, with 47.8% unfavourable and 46.3% favourable. Her net favourability peaked at +1 in late September. Trump’s net favourability is -8.5 with 52.1% unfavourable and 43.6% favourable; his ratings have improved a little in the last two weeks.

While Harris is more likeable than Trump, that’s not reflected in head to head polls. Silver said on October 23 that Trump’s campaign is promoting him as not-nice, but on your side, and as someone who will get things done. They argue Harris’ campaign lacks clear policies.

Harris’ running mate Tim Walz is at +2.6 net favourable, while Trump’s running mate JD Vance is at -6.9 net favourable. In the past few weeks, Vance’s ratings have improved slightly while Walz’s have dropped back.

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Congressional elections

I last wrote about the elections for the House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election on October 14. The House has 435 single-member seats that are apportioned to states on a population basis, while there are two senators for each of the 50 states.

The House only has a two-year term, so the last House election was at the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans won the House by 222–213 over Democrats. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 46.2–46.1 lead over Republicans, a drop for Democrats from a 47.1–45.9 Democratic lead on October 14.

Senators have six-year terms, with one-third up for election every two years. Democrats and aligned independents currently have a 51–49 Senate majority, but they are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including seats in three states Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

West Virginia is a certain Republican gain after the retirement of former Democratic (now independent) Senator Joe Manchin at this election. Republicans have taken a 5.4-point lead in Montana in the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate, while Democrats are just 1.6 points ahead in Ohio.

Republicans are being challenged by independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska, and he trails Republican Deb Fischer by 2.3 points. Democrats did not contest to avoid splitting the vote. In Democratic-held Wisconsin, Democrats lead by 2.1 points, while other incumbents are ahead by at least three points.

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If Republicans gain West Virginia and Montana, but lose Nebraska to Osborn, and no other seats change hands, Republicans would have a 50–49 lead in the Senate. If Harris wins the presidency, Osborn would be the decisive vote as a Senate tie can be broken by the vice president, who would be Walz. This is the rosiest plausible scenario for Democrats.

The FiveThirtyEight congressional forecasts give Republicans a 53% chance of retaining control of the House, so it’s effectively a toss-up like the presidency. But Republicans have an 89% chance to gain control of the Senate.



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Upside Down Trapezoid House Built by Renowned Loft Architect and His Students Hits the Market in Pennsylvania for $625K

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Upside Down Trapezoid House Built by Renowned Loft Architect and His Students Hits the Market in Pennsylvania for 5K


A stunning four-bedroom work of art designed by late Italian architect and loft pioneer Giuseppe “Beppe” Zambonini has just hit the market in Pennsylvania for $625,000—listing for the first time in more than two decades.

The upside-down 1987 trapezoid-style dwelling in Dingmans Ferry boasts a barrel vaulted ceiling supported by eight interior columns and is surrounded by expansive windows and decks to soak in the tranquil views of nature.

Each of the rooms was designed, not as a traditional rectangle, but as a trapezoid, a technique that was meant to maximize the amount of natural light inside the home, ensuring that each window has ample opportunity to let the sun shine through.

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It was a design method that Beppe came up with while working in New York City, where he was renowned for his work creating stunning loft spaces with “theater set” walls. He then brought that technique to Pennsylvania, where he sought to design his own weekend retreat, using the hallmarks that had turned him into a legend of Big Apple architecture.

The result is a home that appears, from the outside, almost like a stack of unevenly placed shipping containers—but on the inside is a stunning, light-filled dwelling, with enormous windows that offer beautiful views of the surrounding area from every room.

A stunning four-bedroom work of art designed by late Italian architect and loft pioneer Giuseppe “Beppe” Zambonini has just hit the market in Pennsylvania for $625,000—listing for the first time in more than two decades.HomeTourVision
The upside-down 1987 trapezoid-style dwelling in Dingmans Ferry, PA, boasts a barrel vaulted ceiling supported by eight interior columns and is surrounded by expansive windows and decks to soak in the tranquil views of nature.HomeTourVision
The result is a home with enormous windows that offer beautiful views of the surrounding area from every room.HomeTourVision

“There are numerous instances in the construction where hallways, rooms, and decks are not perfectly rectangular but rather are all trapezoid in shape,” says listing agent Shaun Burger of Keller Williams Real Estate Milford.

Beppe purchased the 2.44-acre land on which the home now sits in the 1980s, before crafting a home that would be used full time by his wife and their daughter—but was close enough to New York City that he could join them on weekends.

The idyllic parcel is perched above Nyce Lake in a development that would later become known as Traces of Lattimore.

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“It is only 90 minutes away from Manhattan but is a world away in terms of peacefulness and nature,” Burger noted. “There are a lot of properties here being used as second homes, but it could also be used as a primary residence.”

The unique home—which was constructed by Beppe and a team of his best students from his design school, Open Atelier of Design—drew immediate attention from design aficionados, even featuring in a play entitled “The Upside Down House” in New York and a feature film called “A Picture of You.”

In a nod to this heritage, the garage door features a design by one of Beppe’s students resembling a theater curtain that a local artist created using shades of Chinese red, gray, and white.

Burger says that with so much cultural and architectural history, the property feels as much like a piece of art as it does a residential dwelling, one that the current owner has taken great care to preserve and maintain.

“The seller is very much into the arts and feels more of a custodian of the home,” Burger shares. “He is looking to pass it along to the next steward.”

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What makes the dwelling so unique is that only one column is exposed on each floor, which is highlighted by a different color in each room. In the home office, the column is red while the primary bedroom features a blue support, and a yellow column can be found in the dining room.

In the 40 years since the property was built, it has changed hands on only one occasion, in 2005—when it was sold by Beppe’s wife, Claudia, to the man who owns it now for $396,000.HomeTourVision
The property is located just 90 minutes from Manhattan.HomeTourVision
“There are a lot of windows and sitting areas, so when you are inside, you feel like you are outside,” the listing agent says.HomeTourVision

A third-floor loft boasts Zambonini’s signature theater set walls.

“The home itself is so unique, which is what originally attracted the seller,” he added. “There are so many Colonials, ranches, and cookie-cutter homes in the area, so it is infrequent to find a home like this where there has been so much thought put into it.”

In the 40 years since the property was built, it has changed hands on only one occasion, in 2005—when it was sold by Beppe’s wife, Claudia, to the man who owns it now for $396,000.

“I scrupulously maintained the original colors of the house, inside and out, and kept the kitchen and bathrooms as I found them,” the seller writes in the listing. “After 21 years, it is time for a new custodian to live in this significant work of art.”

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According to Burger, the property would be the perfect retreat for someone who likes their privacy but also enjoys entertaining guests, offering ample room across its 2,850-square-foot design.

“It has four bedrooms and four bathrooms so it would be a nice home for someone who loves to entertain,” Burger adds. “There is plenty of space for guests.”

What’s more, the property offers the best of both worlds—surrounded by nature, but with all the convenience of proximity to nearby cities and towns.

“There are a lot of windows and sitting areas, so when you are inside, you feel like you are outside,” the listing agent says. “Dingmans Ferry is very quaint and has lots of lakes, waterfalls, hiking trails, and skiing. It’s a naturally beautiful area.

“I envision the next buyer to be an artist who will totally appreciate this work of art. The area has highly rated public schools for someone who has children. I think it will be someone who will want a getaway where they can reconnect and recharge with nature and will not want to change or renovate the home.”

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Sweet Summer: 59 creameries unite dairy lovers with Pennsylvania farms on Ice Cream Trail

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Sweet Summer: 59 creameries unite dairy lovers with Pennsylvania farms on Ice Cream Trail


CENTER VALLEY, Pa. (WFMZ) — 59 creameries across the Commonwealth are serving up a sweet summer connecting dairy lovers with Pennsylvania farms.

June 4 kicked off the Ninth Annual Scooped Ice Cream Trail.

Ice cream lovers can register online and fill out a digital passport as they visit participating creameries. Each visit earns points towards various prizes.

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The owners of Batch Microcreamery in Center Valley tell 69 News they’re excited to be part of the trail for the third year in a row, attracting visitors locally and out-of-state.

“This is the third location of the ice cream trail that I’ve been on,” said Kamden Acevedo.

Acevedo is originally from Staten Island and said he’s motivated to try other locations on the trail throughout the state.

“I love ice cream. I’m going to try, I’m going to try my hardest honestly,” Acevedo stated.

Dana Reibman and her daughter are just happy for the sweet treat.

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“We’re all up for ice cream all the time. We come here probably about once a month because we like trying the different flavors. As you can see, she really enjoys the cookie monster flavor,” Reibman explained.

The ice cream trail continues through Sept. 7.



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PA law would restrict cellphones in schools. Pittsburgh already bans them

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PA law would restrict cellphones in schools. Pittsburgh already bans them


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  • Pennsylvania’s House of Representatives passed a bill requiring schools to create policies restricting student cellphone use.
  • Pittsburgh Public Schools already has a policy banning student cellphone use during the school day, which was approved in late 2025.
  • Under Pittsburgh’s policy, students must turn in their phones to school personnel for the duration of the school day.

If Pennsylvania sees statewide restrictions on cellphones in schools, would anything change in Pittsburgh?

It’s too early to say for sure.

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On June 1, the Pennsylvania House of Representatives passed legislation that would require school districts to adopt phone restrictions, leaving the details of the exact policy’s implementation up to individual districts, according to USA TODAY. Now, if cleared by the Senate — which already passed another version of the proposal with almost unanimous support — it will go to Gov. Josh Shapiro, who has repeatedly said he supports getting cellphones out of classrooms with a bell-to-bell ban.

“Here in Pennsylvania, Democrats and Republicans agree: We need to let our kids be kids again,” Shapiro said in a June 4 post to his X account.

But Pittsburgh’s already ahead of the curve when it comes to banning cellphones during school hours because of a school board policy approved in late 2025.

Here’s what to know.

Are cell phones banned in Pittsburgh schools?

Yes, cellphones are banned during the school day at Pittsburgh Public Schools.

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In December 2025, Pittsburgh Public Schools Board voted to ban the use of phones by students during the school day, Pittsburgh’s Action News 4.

Under the policy, the possession of phones by students is prohibited. While they may bring cellphones to school, the devices must be turned in to school personnel during the school day.

There are exceptions to the policy in cases where a student may need a phone for instructional activities, an Individualized Education Plan, a Section 504 Plan or for other reasons approved by a school administrator.

Why are schools banning cellphones?

Numerous states have already banned cellphones in schools, including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and others, according to ABC News.

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This year, Indiana and Kansas banned phones during the day, implementing policies that require students to keep their phones in inaccessible locations through the entire school day, USA TODAY reported.

Recently, Delaware, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Oklahoma, Utah, Virginia and Wyoming passed or updated less restrictive legislation on phones in schools, according to an analysis by the Becca Schmill Foundation, the Institute for Families and Technology, Smartphone-Free Childhood US and Jonathan Haidt’s The Anxious Generation.

Illinois, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania may follow suit.

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Do cellphone bans work?

Yes and no.

Cellphone bans keep kids off their devices, but they don’t appear to impact test scores, attendance, self-reported classroom attention or perceived online bullying, according to a study published in April by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Additionally, researchers found that during the first year of a cellphone ban, disciplinary incidents rose and students’ reported well-being fell, though the effects subsided as the years passed.

Still, there’s a push for bans nationally, with the U.S. surgeon general’s office warning on May 20 that “compulsive” screen use is linked to poor sleep, substance abuse, developmental disruptions and social, mental and behavioral issues. The office suggested that cellphone bans in schools are a way to help put excessive screen time in check.

Finch Walker is the Pittsburgh Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Contact Walker at FWalker@usatodayco.com. Instagram: @finchwalker_. X: @_finchwalker.





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