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Trump’s slight lead in Pennsylvania could give him Electoral College win; Biden a drag on Harris

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Trump’s slight lead in Pennsylvania could give him Electoral College win; Biden a drag on Harris


The United States presidential election will be held next Tuesday, with results coming in Wednesday AEDT. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.6–47.5, a slight gain for Trump since Monday, when Harris led by 48.6–47.4. Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9.

The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

In Silver’s averages, Trump has a 0.6-point lead in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), up from 0.3 on Monday. Trump has slightly larger leads of one to two points in North Carolina (16), Georgia (16) and Arizona (11). Harris is narrowly ahead by 0.1 point in Nevada (six) and about one point ahead in Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (ten).

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If current polls are exactly right, Trump wins the Electoral College by 281–257. Not making Pennsylvania’s popular governor Josh Shapiro her running mate could be Harris’ biggest mistake.

In Silver’s model, Trump has a 54% chance to win the Electoral College, slightly higher than 53% on Monday. There’s a 29% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 51% win probability.

Without a major event, there isn’t likely to be much change in the polls before the election, but a polling error where one candidate overperforms their polls could still occur. Silver’s model gives Trump a 22% probability of sweeping the seven swing states and Harris a 12.5% probability.

I wrote about the US election for The Poll Bludger yesterday, and also covered three Canadian provincial elections and Japan’s conservative LDP, which has governed almost continuously since 1955, losing its majority at an election last Sunday.

Biden a drag on Harris and favourability ratings

Joe Biden remains unpopular with a net -16.5 approval in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate, with 55.8% disapproving and 39.3% approving. As Harris is the incumbent party’s candidate, an unpopular president is a key reason for Trump’s edge.

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Biden’s remarks on Tuesday, in which he seemed to call Trump supporters “garbage”, resembled Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” in the 2016 presidential campaign. This won’t help Harris.

Biden is almost 82, Trump is 78 and Harris is 60. Trump’s age should be a factor in this election that favours Harris, but Silver said on October 19 that Democrats spent so much time defending Biden before he withdrew on July 21 that it’s now difficult for them to attack Trump’s age without seeming hypocritical.

Harris’ net favourability in the FiveThirtyEight national aggregate is -1.5, with 47.8% unfavourable and 46.3% favourable. Her net favourability peaked at +1 in late September. Trump’s net favourability is -8.5 with 52.1% unfavourable and 43.6% favourable; his ratings have improved a little in the last two weeks.

While Harris is more likeable than Trump, that’s not reflected in head to head polls. Silver said on October 23 that Trump’s campaign is promoting him as not-nice, but on your side, and as someone who will get things done. They argue Harris’ campaign lacks clear policies.

Harris’ running mate Tim Walz is at +2.6 net favourable, while Trump’s running mate JD Vance is at -6.9 net favourable. In the past few weeks, Vance’s ratings have improved slightly while Walz’s have dropped back.

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Congressional elections

I last wrote about the elections for the House of Representatives and Senate that will be held concurrently with the presidential election on October 14. The House has 435 single-member seats that are apportioned to states on a population basis, while there are two senators for each of the 50 states.

The House only has a two-year term, so the last House election was at the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans won the House by 222–213 over Democrats. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 46.2–46.1 lead over Republicans, a drop for Democrats from a 47.1–45.9 Democratic lead on October 14.

Senators have six-year terms, with one-third up for election every two years. Democrats and aligned independents currently have a 51–49 Senate majority, but they are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including seats in three states Trump won easily in both 2016 and 2020: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

West Virginia is a certain Republican gain after the retirement of former Democratic (now independent) Senator Joe Manchin at this election. Republicans have taken a 5.4-point lead in Montana in the FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate, while Democrats are just 1.6 points ahead in Ohio.

Republicans are being challenged by independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska, and he trails Republican Deb Fischer by 2.3 points. Democrats did not contest to avoid splitting the vote. In Democratic-held Wisconsin, Democrats lead by 2.1 points, while other incumbents are ahead by at least three points.

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If Republicans gain West Virginia and Montana, but lose Nebraska to Osborn, and no other seats change hands, Republicans would have a 50–49 lead in the Senate. If Harris wins the presidency, Osborn would be the decisive vote as a Senate tie can be broken by the vice president, who would be Walz. This is the rosiest plausible scenario for Democrats.

The FiveThirtyEight congressional forecasts give Republicans a 53% chance of retaining control of the House, so it’s effectively a toss-up like the presidency. But Republicans have an 89% chance to gain control of the Senate.



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Pennsylvania

Federal government sues Pennsylvania, others over SNAP data

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Federal government sues Pennsylvania, others over SNAP data


(WHTM) — Pennsylvania is one of four states facing a lawsuit from the federal government over SNAP applicant data.

The U.S. Department of Justice filed suit against Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Michigan, and Minnesota. They are seeking the last five years of SNAP applicant data in the respective states.

The DOJ alleges that the four states refused to turn over data to the U.S. Department of Agriculture “so that USDA could ensure that states are properly administering and enforcing their determinations of residents’ eligibility.”

“The American people deserve a government that is transparent about how it spends their hard-earned tax dollars,” said Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. “These four states are thwarting USDA’s efforts to ensure that the billions of dollars in SNAP benefits they distribute every year are not lost to fraud.”

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“Stopping the rampant theft of taxpayer money demands a whole-of-government response, including strong participation at the state level,” said Assistant Attorney General Colin M. McDonald of the Justice Department’s National Fraud Enforcement Division. “These states are happy to take hundreds of millions of federal tax dollars—much of which is exploited by fraudsters—but want zero transparency over how those tax dollars are spent.”

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The Department of Justice said 28 states promptly provided data and such indicated “there are billions of dollars per year in SNAP funds going to overpayments and fraud.”

The USDA has been seeking data for the past year or so, leading to a legal battle over concerns about how the data would be used.



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Pennsylvania

House Republicans stall activity, Pennsylvania Rep. Meuser calls tactics ‘foolish’ | Fox Business Video

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House Republicans stall activity, Pennsylvania Rep. Meuser calls tactics ‘foolish’ | Fox Business Video


House Speaker Mike Johnson sent representatives home early as hardline Republicans stalled floor activities, demanding action on the SAVE America Act. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, urging House Republicans to unify and avoid giving power to Democrats. Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) labels the stalling tactics ‘foolish,’ emphasizing the need for legislative progress and appropriations.



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Measles detected in two more counties in Pennsylvania as health department recommends early vaccination

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Measles detected in two more counties in Pennsylvania as health department recommends early vaccination


Pennsylvania health officials have now detected measles cases in York and Northumberland Counties as cases in Lancaster County, the center of an ongoing outbreak, continued to rise.

And the state health department is now recommending early measles vaccinations for infants beginning at 6 months in affected areas in an effort to protect them against the spread of the highly contagious disease, which is particularly risky for young children. The same precautions should be taken by families with infants traveling to these areas.

Six Pennsylvania counties have now seen measles cases since an outbreak was first confirmed in Lebanon County in April. In all, the state has reported 81 measles cases across eight counties in 2026, more than five times the cases reported in 2025.

State health officials said it was too early to tell how the latest cases in York and Northumberland Counties are connected to others in the region, but that contact tracing investigations are continuing. All cases were among people who had not received at least two doses of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) or whose vaccination status was unclear.

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As of Wednesday, six cases had been confirmed in Northumberland County, to the north of Dauphin County, and one case had been detected in York County, along Lancaster’s western border.

Lebanon County has reported 20 cases and Dauphin and Berks Counties have reported two cases each.

Lancaster County has seen 38 cases of measles since late April, with health officials confirming seven cases in the last two weeks. The area was at the center of a prior measles outbreak in January, when state health officials confirmed eight cases in Lancaster County and an additional four between Chester and Montgomery Counties.

Vaccination rates among kindergarteners have decreased across Pennsylvania in recent years, and some counties affected in the current outbreak have particularly low rates, including Lancaster, where about 88.5% of kindergarten students are vaccinated. Health experts say that 95% of a community must be vaccinated to prevent the spread of the disease.

Health officials have been conducting contact tracing to detect as many cases as possible. In the current outbreak, they have twice warned Lancaster residents that they could have been exposed to measles.

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Shoppers and employees at a local Kohl’s were potentially exposed to the virus over four days after a staffer tested positive in late May, LancasterOnline reported. And a person with measles visited the Lancaster County Courthouse on June 3.

But doctors in Lancaster County say they fear some measles cases are going unreported, either because patients don’t understand the importance of tracking measles cases or because they fear repercussions.

No cases have been confirmed in the Philadelphia region during this outbreak. But Delaware County health officials said last week that they had detected measles in two wastewater samples, indicating that someone with measles had used a bathroom connected to the county’s public water supply. It was unclear if that person lived in the county or was passing through.

Early vaccination recommended

On Wednesday, a statewide health alert urged physicians to accelerate vaccination schedules to protect children against measles. Officials had said they were considering the measure earlier this month as cases continued to rise.

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Measles can infect nine in 10 unvaccinated people who are exposed to it, and can linger in the air for up to two hours and incubate in patients for three weeks. The disease typically presents with a fever and a rash but can cause brain inflammation and pneumonia in serious cases.

Typically, children receive the first of two MMR vaccines at 1 year old, then a second between 4 and 6 years old.

But children as young as 6 months can receive an additional “dose zero” to protect them from the disease amid an outbreak. In its alert, the state health department said parents should vaccinate infants between 6 and 11 months with the “dose zero” if they live in affected areas or if they’re planning to travel there.

Those children should then receive additional MMR doses at 12 to 15 months and 4 to 6 years.

This “dose zero” is less effective than doses given at 1 year old, officials cautioned. But it’s 58% effective against measles when given at 6 to 8 months, and 83% effective when administered at 9 to 11 months.

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“Early MMR vaccination is safe and provides modest protection when measles is spreading,” officials wrote in the alert.

Children older than 12 months who haven’t been vaccinated should get an MMR dose immediately, and a second 28 days later, health officials said. Unvaccinated adults, or those without evidence of immunity, should also get two MMR doses.

And anyone who has received one dose of the MMR vaccine in the past should get a second at least 28 days after their first, officials said.

Usually, children who received a first dose at around 12 months wait to get their second dose until they’re 4 to 6 years old. But in an outbreak situation, those children should get their second doses early — at least 28 days after their first shot.

Adults born before 1957 are typically considered immune, but healthcare workers in that age group who don’t have lab evidence of immunity or prior infection should consider getting vaccinated, state officials said.

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Adults who received an inactivated measles vaccine between 1963 and 1967 are considered unvaccinated during an outbreak, and should also get two doses of the current MMR vaccine.

Pregnant people, people with severely weakened immune systems, and people who have a history of experiencing severe allergic reactions, like anaphylaxis, to a vaccine ingredient or to a previous dose of MMR cannot receive the vaccine.



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