Poll: Potential Biden versus Trump race tight in Pennsylvania

A potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump has the current occupant of the White House slightly in front in Pennsylvania, a new poll shows.

In the latest edition of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll, which was released today, Biden holds a razor-thin margin over Trump among registered voters.

The poll shows that, if asked to pick today between the two, 43% would opt for Biden and 42% would select Trump. The 1-point gap is well within the poll’s margin of error.

In the last poll, released in October, Biden held a lead of 42% to 40% over Trump.

Biden and Trump are expected to be the nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties and square off in a rematch of the 2020 presidential election.

When the field is expanded to include others who are expected to be on the ballot as third-party candidates, Biden’s lead widens.

After adding Jill Stein and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the question, 42% of registered voters picked Biden and 37% selected Trump.

Kennedy came in third (8%), followed by someone else (7%) and don’t know (5%). Stein finished last at 2%.

The poll showed Biden’s favorability ratings are higher than Trump’s, but neither candidate appears to be particularly well-liked.

More than half (53%) of respondents gave Trump a strongly unfavorable rating, while just under half (45%) gave that rating to Biden.

A total of 41% rated Biden either strongly favorable or somewhat favorable. Trump was rated strongly or somewhat favorable by 39% of registered voters.

One factor in Trump’s low favorability rating is likely his response to the 2020 election, which he lost to Biden.

When asked if his actions following the election represent a serious crime, 59% of respondents said yes. A total of 36% said no, and 5% said they didn’t know.

Biden’s low numbers appear to be tied to people’s feelings about his job performance.

More than half (51%) of respondents rated his job performance as poor, and 16% said he has only done a fair job. Just 33% rated his performance as excellent or good.

When respondents were asked about individual traits of Biden and Trump, the results were a mixed bag.

More people think that Biden understands the concerns of the average American better than Trump, coming in at 40% to 39%. Biden also came out ahead when it comes to whether his views reflect respondents’ views on abortion and same-sex marriage (48% to 36%).

The current president also did better when it comes to questions about judgment and honesty.

A total of 45% said Biden has the character and good judgment needed to be president, outpacing the 32% who said the same about Trump.

And 44% said Biden is the more honest candidate. Only 27% said Trump is more honest.

Trump outpaced Biden in other areas, in particular the economy and the military.

A total of 47% respondents said Trump is more prepared to handle the economy, while only 37% said Biden is better equipped.

And 43% said Trump is the better pick when it comes to handling the job of commander in chief, while 40% said Biden is the better option.

Age continues to be a major concern for registered voters, particularly in regards to Biden.

A total of 84% of voters said Biden, 81, is too old to serve another term, while 48% said Trump, 77, is too old.

Of those who think one or the other candidate is too old to serve another term, 43% said they think both men are too old.

How the poll was conducted

Included in the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll is a detailed explanation of how the survey was conducted:

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted Jan. 17-28. The interviews were conducted at the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs.

The poll was designed and administered by the staff of the Center for Opinion Research. The data included in this release represent the responses of 1,006 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 450 Democrats, 414 Republicans and 142 independents.

The sample of registered voters was obtained from Aristotle. All sampled respondents were notified by mail about the survey. Interviews were completed over the phone and online depending on each respondent’s preference.

Survey results were weighted (age, gender, education, geography and party registration) using an algorithm to reflect the known distribution of those characteristics among state voters. Estimates for age, geography and party registration are based on active voters within the Pennsylvania Department of State’s voter registration data.

The sample error for this survey is 3.6 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered.