Pennsylvania could decide election — and the economy could be key for Trump

Pennsylvania could be pivotal in November, if new polling suggesting a swing state split between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is on point.

A fresh seven-state survey from Emerson College Polling and the Hill shows the VP taking Michigan (50% to 47%), Georgia (49% to 48%) and Nevada (49% to 48%). 

Meanwhile, the former president is up in Wisconsin and North Carolina, 49% to 48% in both states. He also leads in Arizona, 50% to 47%.

If these results hold, Harris leads in the Electoral College, 263 to 256. That means Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes could decide it all — and right now, the Democrat and Republican are neck and neck at 48% each.

“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, before detailing Democratic advantages that the poll’s results divulge.

“Harris leads Trump among independents in each state, with the exception of Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%. There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020. In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women; however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020, according to exit polling.”

Though Democrats have their pockets of strength in this polling, there is significant weakness when it comes to the Biden-Harris economy, which voters in all seven states say is the most important issue, to varying degrees.

In Arizona and Nevada, more than 30% of the poll respondents make that claim. In Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, more than 40% say the same.

And in Pennsylvania, a steep 51% say pocketbook issues are what matter most to them, suggesting that the best closing argument for Team Trump may be in people’s bank statements and credit card balances.

The polling also shows that Trump’s “No taxes on tips” proposal — which Harris also endorses now — is wildly popular across the battlegrounds, with approval numbers ranging from 65% in Michigan to 74% in Arizona and Georgia. Pivotal Pennsylvania falls in the middle of this range at 68%.

In troubling news for Trump, the controversial Project 2025 proposal is hurting him even as he maintains he doesn’t support it.

In all seven states, between 35% and 39% of poll respondents say the so-called “presidential transition project” makes them less likely to support him.

And among independents, the damage is even worse, with between 39% and 46% of respondents across these battlegrounds saying Project 2025 may make them back away from the GOP ticket in November.