Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts mild, snowy winter for Pennsylvania

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has been issuing weather predictions since 1792, and the forecast for the 2023-24 winter is calling for plenty of snow.

“Most areas of the United States that typically see snow should be prepared for crisp temperatures and oodles of fluffy white throughout the season,” almanac officials said as they prepare for the new edition to go on sale Tuesday . “Keep a shovel at the ready early, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, where snow will begin arriving in November with storms, showers and flurries continuing though the start of spring.”

The almanac’s weather map has a mild, snowy winter predicted for Pennsylvania’s neck of the woods, and predictions for summer 2024 are cool, dry conditions for a band including the Keystone State, southern Ohio, West Virginia and much of Virginia.

From weather phenomena to gardening tips, anecdotes and humor, the Old Farmer’s Almanac touches on much more than weather.

And just to be clear, the Old Farmer’s Almanac is not to be confused with the regular Farmer’s Almanac, which is basically the exact same type of publication, despite the two being completely separate, competing entities. The Farmer’s Almanac got its start a little later, in 1818.

The Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a colder, snowier winter than we saw last year, and gets pretty specific in its winter weather advisory, predicting an East Coast storm the second week of February and another the first week of March.

The real question is: how accurate are these almanac weather predictions, anyway?

Both almanacs claim an accuracy rate between 80%-95% in their weather forecasts. A University of Illinois study, however, found that the Farmer’s Almanac was roughly 52% accurate in its forecasts.

In general, long-range weather forecasting is pretty accurate up to a week in advance, according to data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. An eight-day forecast has about an 80% chance of being accurate. Once forecasting gets out beyond 10 days, however, the accuracy rate drops closer to 50% — essentially random chance.

So how do the almanac folks seem to know about the weather so far in advance? Well, if scientific peer review is what you’re seeking, you won’t find it in either book. Neither publisher has revealed how their weather forecasts are modeled.

To purchase the Old Farmer’s Almanac, visit Almanac.com. For the Farmer’s Almanac, see FarmersAlmanac.com.