Pennsylvania’s special election next week will determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the state House, a glimpse of voter sentiment in the swing state that helped return President Donald Trump to the White House.

The death of Democratic state Rep. Matt Gergely has left the House deadlocked at 101-101 since January. A Democratic win on Tuesday would keep Speaker Joanna McClinton of Philadelphia as the chamber’s presiding officer, while a Republican flip would enable the GOP to pick a different speaker, control the voting schedule and install their own members as committee chairs.

The race pits Democrat Dan Goughnour, 39, a police officer who supervises detectives and serves on the school board in McKeesport, against Republican Chuck Davis, 66, a fire chief who also serves as president of the White Oak Borough Council. Libertarian Adam Kitta is also on the ballot.

Steelmaking towns once thrived in the district southeast of Pittsburgh at the confluence of the Monongahela and Youghiogheny rivers, but the the area known as the Mon Valley is now economically challenged.

In a visit to the district last month, Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said a win will show that Democrats are willing to fight for their values. Pennsylvania Democrats lost a U.S. Senate seat and all three row offices — treasurer, attorney general and auditor general — in the November election, along with giving Trump a slim majority of the state’s votes.

It would be a seismic upset for Republicans to flip it after the district went for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump in November, 58% to 42%. Gergely won it with 75% of the vote in a special election in 2023, and Republicans did not field a candidate against him last fall. In the 2022 gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Shapiro also won three-quarters of the district’s vote, swamping Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano of Franklin County.