July 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Trails Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Tied in Wisconsin – Emerson Polling

Majority of Democrats in Swing States Say Harris Should be Nominated at DNC 

New Emerson College Polling/The Hill polling in five swing states finds Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four states, and tied in Wisconsin. In Arizona, 49% support Trump and 44% support Harris. In Georgia, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Michigan, 46% support Trump and 45% Harris. In Pennsylvania, 48% support Trump and 46% Harris. In Wisconsin, 47% support Harris and Trump respectively. 

Support for Harris surpassed Biden’s support from earlier this month in all five states; in Arizona, by four points (Biden’s 40% to Harris’ 44%), Georgia by five points (41% to 46%), Michigan by three points (42% to 45%), Pennsylvania by three points (43% to 46%), and Wisconsin by four points (43% to 47%). 

“Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the fallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back in March.”

“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month.”

Regarding Vice President Harris’ selection of a running mate, a plurality of Arizona voters prefer Senator Mark Kelly (36%), 27% of Michigan voters prefer Gretchen Whitmer, 40% of Pennsylvania voters support Josh Shapiro, while 14% of Wisconsin voters support Bernie Sanders and 12% Pete Buttigieg. 

• Among just Democratic voters, in Arizona 42% prefer their Senator Mark Kelly, in Pennsylvania, 57% prefer their Governor Josh Shapiro and in Michigan 36% prefer their Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Georgia and Wisconsin saw Democrats split among candidates with no one having more than around 20%.

A majority of Democratic voters in each state think Kamala Harris should be nominated at the Democratic National Convention this August. 

In the four U.S. Senate Elections, the Democratic candidate continues to lead the Republican candidate.

• Arizona: Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake, 46% to 42%.
• Michigan: Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers, 45% to 41%.
• Pennsylvania: Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick, 48% to 44%.
• Wisconsin: Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 49% to 43%. 

Harris favorability

• AZ: 45% favorable; 53% unfavorable
• GA: 47% favorable; 51% unfavorable
• MI: 47% favorable; 50% unfavorable
• PA: 47% favorable; 51% unfavorable
• WI: 49% favorable; 50% unfavorable

Trump favorability

• AZ: 49% favorable; 51% unfavorable
• GA: 49% favorable; 50% unfavorable
• MI: 48% favorable; 51% unfavorable
• PA: 46% favorable, 53% unfavorable
• WI: 47% favorable; 53% unfavorable

Biden approval 

• AZ: 35% approve, 57% disapprove
• GA: 40% approve, 51% disapprove
• MI: 39% approve, 53% disapprove
• PA: 37% approve, 55% disapprove
• WI: 39% approve, 50% disapprove

Gubernatorial approval

• Katie Hobbs:  37% approve, 42% disapprove
• Brian Kemp: 49% approve, 29% disapprove
• Gretchen Whitmer: 49% approve, 42% disapprove 
• Josh Shapiro: 49% approve, 31% disapprove
• Tony Evers: 44% approve, 44% disapprove

Gender divide:

Male voters

• AZ: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)
• GA: Trump +10 (52% to 42%)
• MI: Trump +16 (54% to 38%)
• PA: Trump +15 (55% to 40%)
• WI: Trump +13 (54% to 41%)

Women voters

• AZ: Harris +1 (46% to 45%)
• GA: Harris +4 (48% to 44%)
• MI: Harris +12 (52% to 40%)
• PA: Harris +9 (51% to 42%)
• WI: Harris +12 (54% to 42%)

Top issues:

• AZ: 30% immigration, 25% economy, 12% housing affordability

• GA: 41% economy, 10% immigration, 10% housing affordability
• MI: 42% economy, 11% immigration, 11% housing affordability
• PA: 50% economy, 9% threats to democracy, 7% immigration
• WI: 42% economy, 10% threats to democracy, 10% housing affordability, 10% immigration

Methodology

The sample size for Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan is n=800 per state. The credibility interval for each state is +/-3.4%. The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=850, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=845, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data. 

The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between July 22-23, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Emerson College & Nexstar Media.

It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.

FULL RESULTS