J.D. Vance sweet-talks rural Pennsylvania voters at the RNC

JL: OK, so it appears polling will be freshened up soon in this campaign season. Can we count on intel from that to help us understand how much of an impact Vance’s selection may have?

CR: You’re right, I’m sure we’ll get some new indicators coming out soon. In the meantime, I talked to a couple of experts in the area, two political consultants, who both mostly work on Republican campaigns but who gave me different answers to these questions. Ray Zaborney, of Red Mavericks Media, told me that most people vote for the president, not the vice president, but he added that Vance is a good choice overall for this purpose. I’m quoting him now:

Ray Zaborney, Red Mavericks Media

“White working-class voters can relate and in the suburbs he’s a guy who can talk about his conversion on Trump — something many of them are potentially doing themselves.”

CR: But Sam Chen of the Liddel group sees Vance as being more of a reliable MAGA Republican — a populist — and he doesn’t think Vance really helps Trump in the state.

Sam Chen of The Liddel Group: 

“I don’t know that the Republicans that have won in the areas like the Lehigh Valley and the collar counties are these populist republicans; and then in Central Pennsylvania, that’s just going to be a conservative area. Republicans are going to win those seats regardless of what brand of the party they’re in.”

JL: So it sounds like we’ll have to wait and see, but Trump is white, Vance is white. What appeals do they need to make to engage people of color in Pennsylvania?

CR: That’s a good question. Trump has talked a big game about trying to attract Black voters here in Pennsylvania, but then he picks someone a lot like himself. Again, we don’t have polling on what voters in Pennsylvania think of Vance yet, but I can’t imagine there’s going to be much of an appeal there — maybe his talk about trying to bring jobs back to these states like Pennsylvania and so forth. However Black unemployment in our state is actually at one of its lowest right now. According to the nonpartisan Economic Policy Institute, the Black unemployment rate in Pennsylvania is about 5.7% compared to when Biden took office, when it was around 16.5%.

JL: Now that we are into our fourth and final day of the convention, it would seem surprising to me that no one has made a reference to Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, who was convicted of bribery this week. Has anyone mentioned him?

CR:  Actually, last night Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz made a joke about it. Here’s what he told the audience:

U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida:

“Under Biden-Harris, inflation has gotten so bad, you can no longer bribe Democrat senators with cash alone. You have to use gold bars just so the bribes hold value.” 

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