In must-win Pennsylvania, could a Harris-Shapiro ticket trump Trump-Vance?

WASHINGTON – No doubt, if you are Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump, Pennsylvania is a must-win in 2024. It’s been that way for decades, but while Democrats have won every presidential contest in the state since Bill Clinton in 1992, Trump turned that conventional wisdom on its head in 2016, flipping the state red. 

And while Joe Biden wrestled the state back to blue in 2020, it happened at the same time Republicans made inroads elsewhere, ousting the Democratic treasurer and auditor general. In every case, the Philadelphia region often proves most crucial, with its giant voter base, and so-called “collar counties” with voters who can often be unpredictable come Election Day. 

In a recent segment on “The Final 5,” I talked with NOTUS reporter Evan McMorris-Santoro about how Philadelphia-area Democrats are handling the transition atop the ticket, and how support for President Biden is translating to support for Vice President Kamala Harris. McMorris-Santoro, who has been following the political pulse in Philadelphia, shared insights on how this change is being received, plus how Gov. Josh Shapiro has emerged as a potential running mate.

“It’s very confusing for them right now, because they had a whole plan before before Harris came in right that Scranton Joe goes to those suburban counties when he got on the ticket in 2020 the whole the whole pitch was, ‘Look, I can get Democrats. Also, I can get these, maybe Republican voters. These white suburban voters. They’re going to vote for me because I’m a white guy. There’s one of the things they talked about, and obviously in Pennsylvania. You know him being a native of Scranton,” said McMorris-Santoro.

Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold, has long been a key area for Joe Biden due to his deep ties with the region’s political machine, led by his close friend and former Congressman Bob Brady. But McMorris-Santoro found that many Democrats, particularly those who had been struggling to rally enthusiasm for Biden among younger and black voters, were invigorated by the shift to Harris. This change was seen as a much-needed boost to the party’s base.

“We have seen such a shift in the way base Democrats talk about the ticket since Harris has sort of become the likely nominee, I mean, even among those those uncommitted voters, those voters who really really were angry about the war in Gaza, and trying to maybe even damage Biden’s candidacy because of it….we’ve seen shifts even among them towards Harris, so that that they feel like there’s something more they can trust with Harris. It’s a confusing situation, because she doesn’t sound that much different than Biden on this issue.”

However, there are concerns about how Harris will perform outside urban centers. Biden’s appeal to suburban voters, especially those in the surrounding counties of Philadelphia, was a significant factor in previous elections. These areas, which have seen Republican gains, are crucial for either party to clinch the Keystone State.

One potential strategy to mitigate this concern is for Harris to choose Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her vice-presidential nominee. Shapiro, who like Harris, served as state attorney general, won his governorship by a wide margin and could help secure the suburban vote that Biden was able to attract. He also hails from the Democratic stronghold of Montgomery County, just outside of Philadelphia.  

“They say you get that you bring back all the things that Biden had, and you sort of can like sew Pennsylvania up very neatly. But it is a thing where, on the one hand, they’re extremely excited about this base activation, which is obviously a huge problem Democrats had,” says McMorris-Santoro.

Despite the excitement among base Democrats, there are challenges ahead. Some voters, particularly on the left flank of the party, are dissatisfied with how the White House has handled certain issues, including the situation in the Middle East. McMorris-Santoro noted that these voters are showing a shift in attitude towards Harris, who they perceive as a fresh start, despite her policies aligning closely with Biden’s.

Bob Brady, while expressing his disappointment over Biden’s departure, has rallied behind Harris, echoing Biden’s sentiment to “get past it.” This unification suggests a growing Democratic enthusiasm that had been missing earlier in the cycle.

With just under 100 days until election day, the transition from Biden to Harris has injected new energy into the Democratic campaign. As McMorris-Santoro observed, the next few weeks will be critical in determining how, or even if, this momentum translates into votes, especially in pivotal regions like Pennsylvania.

**For more details, check out Evan McMorris-Santoro’s full report on NOTUS.