Exclusive poll: Harris, Trump tied in Pennsylvania as election day approaches

With days before Tuesday’s Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, one of several key swing states that could determine the winner, a new exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll shows.

Harris and Trump are tied with 49% of the vote each, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted from Oct. 27 to 30 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

A poll of 300 likely voters in Erie County, which could indicate which way the state trends, was also tied 48% to 48%. Northampton County, another Pennsylvania bellwether, leaned slightly towards Trump, with 50% saying they supported him, to Harris’ 48%. The results of the county polls are within the margin of error of 5.65 percentage points. 

Together, David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said, the county and statewide data show Pennsylvania is “truly a toss up.” 

“We have all the results within the margin of error … it’s basically a statistical tie,” Paleologos said.

Pennsylvania holds 19 electoral votes – the most out of the swing states. Both candidates have campaigned in the state this week. Trump held a rally in Allentown on Tuesday, while Harris visited Harrisburg on Wednesday.

More: Harris, Trump deadlocked in battleground Michigan, new exclusive poll shows

Biden won Pennsylvania by a razor-thin margin of one percentage point in 2020. He flipped both Erie and Northampton County, which Trump had won in 2016.

The state is part of the “blue wall,” a group of states that voted blue in recent federal elections, until Trump won three of them – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – in 2016.

Undecided and third-party voters

Most voters in Pennsylvania have already decided who to support, but with the race as tight as it is, the small percentage of undecideds could sway the results of the election in the state – and the country. 

So could third-party candidates. In Pennsylvania, there are two options outside of Trump and Harris on the ballot – Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver. They each notched 1% or less support in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll. 

But if the election in Pennsylvania is as close as polls suggest it could be, a candidate with .5% could tip the scale for Harris or Trump, Paleologos said. 

Jason Danner, 38, is among the few still undecided voters left in Pennsylvania. 

While Danner said he believes that Trump was a good president, he has concerns that Trump uses “divisive” and “undemocratic” rhetoric and “seems to not respect the Constitution.” On the other hand, he’s worried that Harris would continue the policies of Biden.

A registered Democrat, when Danner ultimately gets into the voting booth, he said he’s “most likely” going to vote for Harris. But he’ll just do so begrudgingly.

“I voted my whole life,” he said. “This is almost the first election where I’m like, I don’t even want to vote because I’ve become so apathetic to our political climate.”

Sean Doyle said he plans to vote, but will leave the presidential box blank. After casting a vote for Biden last election cycle, Doyle said he can’t accept that Harris wasn’t chosen in a primary process.

“We needed an honest primary, and that was taken from us,” he said. “I can’t abide voting for the candidate whose party thinks it’s OK to snub the voters like that.”

A veteran who served for 12 years, Doyle said his politics most align with the Libertarian Party, but feels that casting a third-party vote would be a waste of his ballot. In 2020, he decided at the last minute against supporting Trump after he “remembered all the things that he said negatively about veterans.”

While he favors Democrats’ economic policy, he feels increasingly “disillusioned” with the party.

“I’ve been seeing less and less and less when it comes to anything that actually helps me,” he said.

The gender gap

Nationally, Harris is leading decisively among women and Trump has garnered a similar edge with men.

And in Pennsylvania, that gender gap is “very pronounced,” Paleologos said. 

Trump is up by 20 points among men in Pennsylvania, 57% to 37%, while Harris has an 18% hold on women over Trump, 57% to 39%. That’s compared to Trump’s 16-point advantage among men nationally and Harris 17-point advantage among women.

“Where the rubber hits the road is in the married couple’s household,” Paleologos said. “It’s the married women and married men who are struggling with this election because they’re talking about it under their roof.”

Kathleen Keshgegian, 42, said women’s rights are central to why she already cast her ballot for Harris. “I have two daughters, and that’s my big issue,” she said. 

“I have terminated a pregnancy, and if I didn’t have that option, I think my life would be totally different, and most likely not a good way,” said Keshgegian, a stay-at-home mom of three kids, aged 11, 8, and 6, who lives in Oreland, a Philadelphia suburb.

Although Keshgegian voted in 2020 for President Biden because she felt he was the best choice, she “would prefer someone younger, more in tune with a change in the government, as opposed to the same old white men,” she said. She feels more connected to Harris, who she finds more relatable and compassionate and less divisive.

Keshgegian said Trump may be able to bring down prices, and she understands people may vote for him for that reason. But she can’t abide by what she sees as his other characteristics. “He’s rude, he’s sexist. I’m pretty sure he’s a criminal,” she said.

“I’d rather have less money in my pocket than have someone with his ideals.”

That calculus weighs differently for others. 

Luanne McDonald, from Lancaster, Pennsylvania, said she has “mixed emotions” about the election and views both Trump and Harris as “terrible” candidates. A self-described independent, McDonald doesn’t agree with Trump’s stances on abortion or women’s rights, but believes Harris is “weak and wishy-washy.” 

She voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and plans to again on Nov. 5.  When it comes to the issues that matter most to her – the economy and law and order – McDonald said she feels Trump will do a better job.  

“I could buy a Babka at my Whole Foods when he was president, I can’t afford it now,” McDonald, a former nurse, said, referring to a traditional Jewish sweet bread. “I’ve never felt poor until now.”

Unsurprisingly, more than 70% of people who viewed current economic conditions as poor said they supported Trump. Harris outperformed Trump with those who believed the economy was in fair, good or excellent shape. 

Eric Huhn, 62, plans to vote Republican, from Trump all the way to the bottom of the ticket.

The owner of a house painting and wallpaper business in Chalfont, about 30 miles north of Philadelphia, Huhn said economic issues are his top priority. “Being self-employed, nothing affects me more than what the government does to the economy,” he said.

He believes the Republican platform can deliver.

Cheaper energy “will help bring down cost of goods, less regulation will also help encourage growth to business,” he said. “I like Republicans for their more conservative viewpoints about spending and limited government.”

Trevor Borchelt, from Berks County, Pa., describes himself as a Reagan-era Republican, who believes in fiscal conservatism and moral responsibility. But he said the party has lost sight of those ideals under Trump and plans to vote for Harris on Election Day, citing “democracy” as his biggest concern.

“I don’t disagree with some of Trump’s policies,” Borchelt, 44, said, noting the former president’s tax and pro-manufacturing policies. “But if you don’t pass the bar of accepting the results of an election, [you] don’t get to be involved in a democratic election.”  

Trump is facing multiple criminal trials for efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and has refused to say that he would accept the outcome of the 2024 race.

Borchelt has never cast a ballot for Trump – in 2016 he voted for Libertarian Party candidate Barry Johnson and in 2020 he supported Biden. This year, he said, he hopes that Trump will lose, and politics will return to “honest debates about real issues, instead of all the name calling and the violence and ugliness.”

“I’m kind of fed up,” he said.