Pennsylvania
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leading Trump Narrowly In Michigan And Wisconsin—But Tied In Pennsylvania
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris has razor-thin leads over former President Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, but the two candidates are tied in the crucial state of Pennsylvania, according to a new CBS/YouGov poll—reflecting a tight race in the key battleground states with just two months before the election.
US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at a Labor Day event at … [+]
Key Facts
Pennsylvania: Harris and Trump are tied here at 50% of likely voters according to CBS—similar to Trump’s 50%-49% lead over President Joe Biden in an April CBS poll, but a swing in Harris’ favor from July, when Trump was leading by four points in a July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey (the latest CBS poll had a margin of error of 3.4 points).
Michigan: Harris is up 50%-49%, CBS and YouGov found, well within the 3.6-point margin of error, and narrower than Harris’ five-point lead in a late August CNN/SSRS poll and her 11-point advantage in the July Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey.
Wisconsin: Harris had a 51%-49% lead in the CBS/YouGov poll, with a 4-point margin of error, a shift from her 50%-44% edge according to CNN and SSRS (though 14% of voters say they could change their minds), and on par with the two-point advantage she held here in July’s Bloomberg poll.
Arizona: Trump leads Harris by five points, 49% to 44%, according to a survey of likely voters by CNN/SSRS from Aug. 23 to 29, though 14% of Arizona voters said they might change their minds before November—Trump trailed Harris by two points, 49% to 47%, here in the Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey of registered voters taken just after President Joe Biden’s exit from the race.
Georgia: Harris is up by one point here, 48% to 47%, according to CNN/SSRS, within the 4.7-point margin of error, while 11% of likely voters surveyed suggested they could change their minds (she and Trump were tied here in July with 47% support each in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll).
Nevada: Another state with no clear leader, Harris leads by one point, 48% to 47%, and 13% of respondents told CNN/SSRS they’re not firmly committed to the candidates they prefer now, a slight decline from Harris’ two-point lead here in the July survey.
Big Number
2. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in North Carolina, 49% to 47%, among registered voters, according to a late August Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, reversing the 48% to 46% lead Trump held there in July. North Carolina is widely considered a battleground state this year following changes in the population over the past decade that have shifted it more toward the left.
Tangent
Harris is receiving more support from younger, non-white and female voters—demographics who showed indecision over their support for Biden before he dropped out—according to a recent New York Times survey, which noted Harris had support from 84% of Black voters in the polls, a higher share of support than Biden had before withdrawing from the race in July.
Key Background
Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, despite insisting he would continue his campaign amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his June 27 debate performance. He immediately endorsed Harris, she announced plans to seek the nomination and officially became the nominee in the first week of August when 99% of delegates voted for her in a virtual roll call. Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, polls consistently found Trump would beat him in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out (Forbes)
Trump’s Lead Over Biden And Harris Jumped After RNC, HarrisX/Forbes Poll Finds (Forbes)
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election (Forbes)