Stomping Grounds: Recession? Menendez, Trump and Hoffman – New Jersey Globe

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state.  Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP.  Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made.  They will get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

More than half of Americans (incorrectly) think the country is in a recession.  Since you’re both advising candidates, how do you tell them to talk about the economy?

Dan Bryan: We’re in a tough atmosphere for incumbents. The economy is strong, but people don’t feel it. And anyone spending their time telling voters they’re wrong about the economy is in for a long campaign. So here’s how I’d advise a candidate (say, one running for reelection to a high office) to talk about the economy:

“Listen, by basic economic markers, we all know America’s economy is strong. Unemployment is down, GDP is up, the stock market is thriving, and people are making more money than they were just four years ago.

“But people don’t *feel* like the economy is strong, and I don’t blame them. It’s never been more expensive to raise a family in this country, and people know it because they live that reality every day. Imagine being a young family today, trying to buy a house in this market, at these interest rates. They’re trying to afford increased childcare and healthcare costs, and try to save for an unsure retirement. Working families are getting squeezed from every angle, and they know it.

“But here’s the difference between me and my opponent: I wake up every day fighting for those families, working to make their lives better. My administration is working to bring down college costs, help families buy their first home, and make childcare more affordable. We work day and night to deliver for working families, and help them afford to build their own American Dream. I’m running for reelection not because I think things are perfect, but because I know that job’s not done.

“Meanwhile, my opponent wakes up every single day disdainful of the middle class in America and desperate to cut taxes for the wealthy and corporations. Don’t take it from me, take it from him – he’s already promising tax cuts for his wealthy donors. He’ll make things worse for working families, and better for corporations and the ultra wealthy.

“While he wakes up every day sucking up to them, I’ll continue to wake up every day fighting for American working families.”

Alex Wilkes: I think Dan would agree with me in principle that if you’re explaining, you’re losing. A vast majority of the people answering pollsters’ questions probably can’t define what a recession is (I offer that as an explanation, not an insult, by the way).

But it’s a rose by any other name for most Americans. The bottom line is that most people recognize that their personal economic situation is worse under Joe Biden than it was four years ago. They understand it because they live it every day. It is truly breathtaking to go into a store and realize how little $100 gets you in groceries. I have 2 children – one born in 2020 and the other born last year. The very same infant formula I have used for both is $15 more expensive today than it was 4 years ago. These are real, appreciable differences that every voter can see in their own bank account. 

So Democrats can act like a schoolmarm and try to Merriam-Webster their way out of this mess, or they can – as other prominent Democrats, like David Axlerod, have done –acknowledge that “Bidenomics” and other attempts at obfuscation on this important issue have been an abysmal failure.

The star witness in the Menendez corruption trial claimed the three-term senator from New Jersey used to ring a bell to summon his wife.  Based on what you’ve read or heard, how is Bob Menendez doing?  

Alex: I just want to tell the young girl getting ridiculed for voting for Romney-Ryan in 2012 because of invented controversies like “binders full of women,” that I would ultimately be vindicated on just so many levels. It’s almost fifteen years later, and now the Democrats don’t just bully women into voting for them, they actually summon them like cattle!

I do, however, want to thank Bob Menendez for just an absolutely spectacular series of news cycles for Republicans here in New Jersey. Bisou bisou, mon amour!

Dan: In the words of Pete Campbell, not great, Bob!

It’s interesting how little chatter there is about this case. My guess – he’s going to lose reelection (if he follows through with it) and is, more or less, already out of public life in New Jersey. People have already moved on, regardless of the outcome of the case.

Donald Trump keeps talking about competing in New Jersey.  Is that real?

Dan: Absolutely. New Jersey is clearly his for the taking. All it’ll take is plenty of time, energy, and tens of millions of dollars spent here by the Trump campaign, and I think they have a real shot! (David – please forward this to the Trump campaign)

Alex: To be realistic, Joe Biden is going to go on an advertising blitz in the fall that will surely reshape the national conversation we are having right now, but I don’t think it’s at all far-fetched to say that Donald Trump will narrow Democrats’ margins in places that have traditionally been strongholds for the party. It may even make some states competitive. Looking at Ann Selzer’s latest Iowa poll, for example, it’s not a stretch to believe that Trump may be not just looking at a repeat performance in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, but that he also may come close to capturing elusive Minnesota.

For years, we’ve been warned about the Democrats’ strong performance with white, wealthy, college-educated voters, but their myopic focus on the coastal elite has come at a price. Traditional parts of the Democratic coalition like working class voters, and even percentages of black and Hispanic voters that should make them nervous, are leaving the party in droves. Is it any wonder when that same party drives up the costs of household goods for the people who can afford it the least and treats illegal immigrants better than veterans and first responders?

Trump may not win New Jersey, but if he narrows Biden’s margin of victory here slightly, that will have the potential for huge ramifications in the down-ballot races.

Governor Murphy’s latest — and possibly last — nomination to the New Jersey Supreme Court is John Hoffman, a former acting attorney general and now the counsel to Rutgers University.  He’s an independent with close ties to members of Gov. Chris Christie’s administration.  Is this an easy confirmation?

Alex: Most likely. Too bad for everyone else waiting for a divorce or custody hearing that Murphy and Scutari couldn’t find as agreeable of a solution on lower court nominees.

Dan: I’ve seen a few surprised X (sigh) reactions to this nomination by those that may be less familiar with New Jersey politics. So as a reminder, there is a tradition in New Jersey for Governors to alternate Supreme Court nominations between the Democratic and Republican parties, to maintain balance.

I don’t know much about Hoffman himself, but I’m glad Governor Murphy is committed to maintaining balance on the court.