Stomping Grounds: Menendez Pardon, Trump Endorsement, Sweeney ad, Dem Governors – New Jersey Globe

New Jerseyans aren’t always civil, but it’s still possible for a liberal Democrat and a conservative Republican to have a rational and pleasant conversation about politics in the state. Dan Bryan is a former senior advisor to Gov. Phil Murphy and is now the owner of his own public affairs firm, and Alex Wilkes is an attorney and former executive director of America Rising PAC who advises Republican candidates in New Jersey and across the nation, including the New Jersey GOP. Dan and Alex are both experienced strategists who are currently in the room where high-level decisions are made. They get together weekly with New Jersey Globe editor David Wildstein to discuss politics and issues.

U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham told the New Jersey Globe’s Joey Fox that he hasn’t had any discussions about a pardon for Bob Menendez, either with the former senator or with the White House.  Graham and Menendez are friends, and Graham has close ties to the Trump administration.  What does that tell you about the speculation that Trump might pardon Menendez?

Alex Wilkes: I don’t speculate about what President Trump may or may not do because if I were good at it, I’d have as much money as the Murphys and scenic views of the Navesink. I also think that Senator Graham isn’t always the easiest to pinpoint either. It was a surprise, even understanding their friendship, when he showed up last time in Newark to testify. Those, however, were different times and different crimes. Wrongly or rightly, I think it’s safe to say that public opinion at the time – not to mention the jury’s ultimate verdict – reflected an attitude of “eh, it’s a gray area, but not too bad by New Jersey standards.” The problem with what the evidence showed this time is that it was just so cut and dry. You could watch 10 seconds of News12 at a diner or doctor’s office and understand that Menendez had traded his influence for gold bars and new cars.

In terms of a pardon, I think that would have to fit within the general theme of the “Weaponization of Justice” – basically, that the government went after people with flimsy arguments out of political retribution (oddly enough, the first Menendez trial may have fallen into this category given how strongly Republicans believed that President Obama and Eric Holder had done this, and their latent dislike of Menendez). Someone like Mayor Eric Adams better fits this bill. He spoke out against the unruly and dangerous Biden immigration policies and then got jammed up by the Biden DOJ on airline upgrades. I would think that Senator Graham has a long list of favors for the President and the new administration, and I just don’t think Gold Bar Bob makes the cut. He can always contribute to the commissary account, though!

Dan Bryan: I am out of the predictions business in general, and especially with anything having to do with President Trump. But if I were Senator Menendez, I wouldn’t be holding my breath. I don’t think a pardon of a Senate Democrat convicted of corruption would go over well with the MAGA base.

Jack Ciattarelli spent about fifteen minutes sitting with President Donald Trump on Friday night, and Bill Spadea had a quick, standing conversation with him on Saturday. Acknowledging that neither of you are speaking directly to the President, what’s your take on the impact of a Trump endorsement in the governor’s race, and what would you tell Trump do to if you were advising him?

Dan: I think a Trump endorsement of Ciattarelli effectively ends the Republican primary, and an endorsement of Spadea (though I hear it’s unlikely) would make it a real race.

I don’t know what President Trump has to gain by wading into the primary. If he stays out, Ciattarelli probably wins, and the Republicans have a strong general election candidate without a Trump endorsement weighing him down. If he endorses, and his numbers continue to sink in New Jersey, Ciattarelli probably suffers for it a bit in the general. If they’re smart, they stay out of it.

Alex: I think a President Trump endorsement for Jack Ciattarelli effectively ends the race, one for Bill Spadea brings it close to a draw, advantage still to Jack*, and, finally, that no endorsement benefits Jack.

*I say this because you need to have money to communicate that endorsement, particularly with no line and an uncertain turnout universe. As popular as the President is, you simply cannot count on voters to know who Bill Spadea is or even that there’s an election going on.

I will further nuance my comments by adding, “what kind of endorsement are we talking here?” Is it a post on Truth social? Is it robocalls? Is it one or two big rallies? Do his related PACs put money behind it? If the President opts for the Cadillac plan of all of the above, then the race is a real nailbiter.

Steve Sweeney has a new TV ad pledging a $400 tax rebate for millions of middle-class New Jerseyans.  What do you think of the idea — and the ad?

Alex:

I think that promise carries about as much weight as the tax breaks Democrats promised in 2023 and conveniently could not deliver right after Election Day. Do I like the idea of cutting taxes? Of course I do. We get absolutely hosed here with little to no return on our investment. Nearly 70% of Newark elementary school students can’t read, and over 80% aren’t meeting math standards in a state with some of the highest taxes in the country. We have a mass transit system that does not function. And these lunatics in Trenton and paid Tesla dealership protestors want to tell me and my family we don’t pay our fair share? GTFO.

But, I’m not representative of the Democratic base. I mean some of these nutjobs want to use money we don’t have to pay for things like free healthcare for illegal immigrants. I don’t think any level of taxation would actually satisfy these people because they do not believe in fundamental western concepts like private property and individualism. Maybe there are still some sane members of the Democratic Party voting in this election, but it must be a lonely place.

Dan: The former Senate President, much like Congressman Gottheimer, has firmly picked the lane of affordability through tax cuts. The ad is solid, and I can see it appealing to a certain type of moderate Democratic voter.

But I do think it contains too narrow a view of affordability. I don’t hear people talk about taxes (even property taxes!) when they complain about affordability in our state. They talk about how expensive the housing market is, how expensive groceries have gotten, how expensive college tuition is, how expensive daycare is…and on and on. The real drivers of unaffordability in New Jersey can be attacked through smart, consistent state investment, rather than slashing revenues and programs that people rely on.

In other words, tax relief and efficient government are good, but not sufficient. We need to show that Democrats can address the real cost drivers that make life unaffordable for families.

In a press release this week, the Democratic Governors Association said, “Jack Ciattarelli Has Always Been a Never-Trumper.”  What’s their endgame in the primary?

Dan: November’s general election will be extremely competitive. Any advantage Democrats can get will matter.

I find it hard to believe that it’s a half-hearted attempt to affect the Republican primary, which is all but wrapped up. My guess is they’re looking to affect enthusiasm for Ciattarelli among the base, keeping them home for the primary and making it less likely they vote for him in the general. If so, it’s a smart play.

Alex: Many people, trips to Mar-a-Lago, phone calls to Bedminster, and events you never even see coming could influence President Trump to weigh in on this race. A press release from the DGA ain’t it.