NJ weather: Unseasonably warm, summerlike temperatures

The Bottom Line

Thursday will be more like June than mid-May. And as our warmup peaks on Friday, it’s going to feel like a typical July day. The next couple of days will be nice and warm, with a touch of humidity even coming into play too.

Pollen levels are high. The UV index is high too.

The forecast contains one and only one chance of rain, at the start of the Mother’s Day weekend. There are some question marks about how raindrops and cloud cover will impact temperatures.

I am confident that Mother’s Day Sunday is trending dry and pleasant.

Thursday

Once again, we start the day with a little chill in the air. Not bad, but 40s are probably cold enough to reach for a jacket.

You know once 8 a.m. rolls around, thermometers will start to jump upward. Highs Thursday afternoon will reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. That is about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday. And decidedly above normal for mid-May.

Once again, weather will be dropdead gorgeous Thursday. Sunshine will dominate, with some fair-weather clouds appearing around midday. We will stay completely rain-free.

Thursday night looks comfortable — not too cold. Under clear skies, overnight lows will dip into the upper 50s on average.

Friday

With high temperatures in the lower 80s (away from the coast), Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week. Urban centers and inland southern NJ could soar to 85 or 86 degrees, akin to our warmest normal highs of the year in late July.

Once again, Friday should remain rain-free. Early sunshine will gradually give way to clouds through the afternoon.

Humidity levels will be on the rise too, as dew points peek into the 60s. I don’t think it’s going to feel “tropical” necessarily. But some stickiness in the air could make you sweat a bit.

Saturday

A weak disturbance is forecast to ride through New Jersey’s atmosphere during the first half of Saturday, presenting a chance for rain.

Best chance of wet weather still looks to be the Saturday morning hours, and especially in southern New Jersey. There is still a division amongst model guidance about whether the rain will be 1.) widespread, possibly lingering into the afternoon in South Jersey, or 2.) limited to showers south of I-195 only.

I am leaning toward a middle-ground scenario, with a quick hit of widespread showers drifting south. Followed by a dry (but cloudy) afternoon.

Temperatures are tricky too. If the day does turn out rainy, drizzly, and dismal, we won’t get out of the 60s. But if rain wraps up early enough and the sun comes out, there’s a chance for some 80s.

Again, I have settled in the middle-of-the-road for now, putting highs mainly in the 70s on Saturday.

Expect a mix of sun and clouds, with high temperatures settling in the lower 70s. Seasonably mild temperatures making for a very nice spring day.

The Extended Forecast

I am a little concerned that the extended forecast is trending mighty dry again. We ended April on a very wet note, erasing our drought concerns. But May has been leaning dry again. Those May flowers really need a good soaking soon, or else rainfall departures will start to fall behind again.

Next week, more days will feature temperatures in the 70s than anything else. There will be some ups and downs — specifically, Wednesday looks like a cooler day. No big storm systems or temperature shifts on the horizon.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.