What 'La Nada' Means For MA Spring, Summer Weather Patterns

MASSACHUSETTS — A change in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean may be coming soon, which means a welcome change from the El Niño pattern that has been influencing weather across New England for months.

The National Weather Service is predicting a transition to an ENSO-neutral pattern — also called La Nada, or “nothing” — soon, which means normal sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Pacific Ocean along the equator. La Nada patterns happen between a change from El Niño — the condition over the Pacific now that’s been in place since last June — and La Niña.

“In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance),” the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center said in an April 11 forecast discussion.

So what does that mean for weather across Massachusetts this spring and into early summer? According to the Climate Prediction Center, the region should see normal precipitation levels, and the possibility of slightly warmer temperatures.

If La Niña does happen by the end of summer, conditions will likely remain about average for precipitation with slightly warmer temperatures. La Niña could boost hurricane season in the fall.

MORE: ‘Extremely Active’ 2024 Hurricane Season Predicted: What To Know In MA

Even with the risk of hurricanes, there’s reason to look forward to La Niña. Communities across Massachusetts were devastated by flash floods during back-to-back heavy rain events last summer influenced by El Niño. In July, Boston, Worcester (falling short of the 2021 record by just over an inch) and Providence recorded their second-wettest July months ever. During one event in July, about 3 inches of rain fell in an hour in the Boston area, flooding Fenway Park and canceling that day’s game.

But if La Niña persists into winter, that’s a recipe for cold temperatures and plenty of snow.