Maine
Poll: Economy weighing heavily on Maine voters ahead of November election
Maine voters are split about whether their households are better off financially now than one year ago, according to a poll released this week by the University of New Hampshire.
And political affiliation appears to be a big reason why. Among Republicans, 86% said their economic outlook is worse, while only 15% of Democrats felt that way.
The survey of 821 residents conducted online Aug. 15-19 revealed that 49% of overall respondents felt worse about the economy, while 17% felt better and 34% said things were the same. The percentage of respondents who say they feel worse now is 8% smaller than this time last year.
UNH’s poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, reflects a deep partisan divide over the economy as the November presidential election draws closer.
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said Tuesday that he’s been conducting polls for more than 20 years, and views of the economy seem to increasingly be viewed through through a political lens.
“The out-of-power party thinks the world is going to hell in a handbasket, and the party that controls the White House has a much more positive outlook,” he said.
As with most presidential elections, the economy – and the candidates’ approach to it – will feature prominently in campaign appearances and debates.
Last week, UNH released a poll of Mainers that looked at the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Among those surveyed, 55% said they planned to vote for Harris, compared to 38% for Trump. Harris’ margin has more than doubled in Maine from July to August.
Smith said the poll of presidential preference in Maine was conducted not long after Harris officially became the nominee, so it likely reflected a higher level of enthusiasm among Democrats.
Nationally, the race remains close, and the outcome will likely come down to battleground states likes Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Maine has four Electoral College votes but is one of only two states that splits its Electoral College votes by congressional district (Nebraska is the other). In 2016 and again in 2020, the Democratic presidential candidate won both the 1st District and the state overall, earning three electoral votes, while Trump won the 2nd District and secured its one electoral vote.
Smith said the recent UNH poll of Mainers shows a stark disconnect between broader economic conditions, which show the country is improving and has generally done well coming out of the pandemic, and more specific factors like grocery prices. Nearly 60% of those surveyed said they have had difficulty affording basic necessities in the last 12 months. For those with an annual household income below $75,000, that increases to 69%.
Respondents cited housing, cost of living, and jobs/economy as the most important problems facing Maine.
And 55% of those polled said they think it’s either very likely or somewhat likely that the U.S. will enter a recession in the 12 months, even though economists largely agree that the country will avoid a recession, which is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product. A total of 96% of Republicans said they believe a recession is likely, compared to 39% of Democrats.
“The economy doesn’t pick friends or enemies,” Smith said. “But for Republicans, the number one issue is going to be the economy because it’s something they can blame on Democrats. And Democrats who may still feel the same pinch may be less likely to say it.”
Asked whether he expects the economic attitudes to shift between now and the election, Smith said it’s possible, but it likely wouldn’t matter because there is often a lag in consumer sentiment. For instance, if the federal reserve reduces interest rates – something Chairman Jerome Powell said was likely last week – it probably wouldn’t affect the race substantially, he said.
Many Maine municipalities will open cooling centers this week with the National Weather Service issuing a variety of heat advisories covering the next few days.
The Maine DEP also issued an air quality alert for Wednesday with ground-level ozone expected to reach levels that are unhealthy for sensitive groups.
All of York County, interior Cumberland and Androscoggin counties, and the southern half of Oxford County will fall under an extreme heat warning from 11 a.m. Wednesday to 8 p.m. Friday.
The warning calls for “dangerously hot conditions” that could feature heat index values of up to 110 degrees, with overnight lows only expected to fall into the 70s, according to the weather service’s office in Gray.
The rest of the state — save northern Aroostook, Piscataquis and Somerset counties — falls under a heat advisory from 11 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Wednesday. However, the weather service has also placed much of the state under an extreme heat watch for Thursday.
Heat index values, which measure how hot it feels to the human body when relative humidity is combined with the air temperature, are expected to reach up to 104 degrees during the heat advisory period, the weather service warns. They could reach 110 degrees Thursday, when the extreme heat watch is in effect.
Northern Oxford and Franklin counties, and central Somerset County, can expect a heat index value of up to 99 degrees Wednesday, according to the weather service.
The weather service advises people to drink plenty of fluids, stay in air-conditioned rooms when possible, avoid extended periods in the sun and check up on relatives and neighbors. It also warns not to leave young children and pets in unattended vehicles, as “car interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.”
Cooling Centers
The Maine Department of Environmental Protection has also issued an air quality alert from 10 a.m. to 11 p.m. on Wednesday along the coast from Kittery to Acadia National Park. The agency warns that ground-level ozone concentrations are expected to reach levels that are unhealthy for sensitive groups.
Ozone levels may reach “moderate levels” further inland, according to the Maine DEP, including in all of Androscoggin and Kennebec counties, as well as parts of Cumberland, Knox, Lincoln, Penobscot, Sagadahoc, Waldo, Washington and York counties.
Elevated ozone levels can pose a risk to children, older adults and people suffering from respiratory or heart diseases, according to the Maine DEP. Anyone exerting themselves outdoors may also experience health effects, which could include coughing, shortness of breath, throat irritation and mild chest pain.
Ozone levels were already climbing in southern New England on Tuesday, according to the Maine DEP, and winds are expected to bring those conditions to Maine on Wednesday.
The Maine DEP recommends that vulnerable populations avoid strenuous outdoor activities, keep windows closed, and circulate indoor air with fans or air conditioners. Those with asthma are also advised to keep quick-relief medication handy.
Particle pollution levels are also expected to be moderate across the state on Wednesday due to wildfire smoke, the Maine DEP said in its announcement Tuesday. Wildfires in Colorado, which have claimed the lives of three firefighters, had burned nearly 90,000 acres as of Tuesday, according to the Denver Post.
Maine could face up to $50 million in penalties next year due to errors in its payments for federal food benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
Newly released data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture find that Maine’s error rate last year was nearly 11%, the bulk of which were overpayments. That’s in line with the U.S. average. But starting in October of next year, states with error rates above 6% must cover a portion of the SNAP benefits.
Anna Korsen, executive director of Full Plates, Full Potential, said the overpayments aren’t fraud — they’re human error. She said this new cost-shifting policy enacted last year under the Trump administration further complicates the SNAP application process.
“Instead, we could make this program more accessible and more efficient,” Korsen said. “And that would reduce the number of errors and also ensure that Mainers who are eligible for SNAP have access to it.”
She’s urging Congress to delay or reverse the policy under the farm bill that’s currently under consideration.
Maine’s Department of Health and Human Services said it’s taking steps to reduce the error rate, including modernizing its systems and hiring an additional 40 eligibility specialists.
This story appears through a media partnership with Maine Public.
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