Maine’s Susan Collins-Graham Platner race expected to draw nearly $400M in ads

More than $200 million was spent in Maine’s U.S. Senate race in 2020, a historic figure that raised eyebrows and became a case study for advocates of campaign finance reform.

Six years later, as Democrats bank on progressive Graham Platner and Republicans look to defend five-term U.S. Sen. Susan Collins to keep hold of the Senate, that record is about to be obliterated in political advertising alone.

Overall ad spending in Maine this election cycle could reach almost $500 million, according to the latest projection from AdImpact. The amount is driven by a whopping new estimate of $384 million in the Collins-Platner race alone, making the contest the fourth-most expensive Senate race in the country behind Texas, Michigan and Georgia. The races for the 2nd Congressional District and governor could also see heavy spending.

The new estimate nearly doubles what AdImpact previously expected in Maine’s Senate race. It comes after contentious primary season spending and after Platner weathered a string of controversies in the fall and recent weeks to secure the Democratic nomination.

More than $150 million in ads through Election Day have already been booked in the race, about $100 million of it by Collins-aligned groups. But Democrats — who outspent Republicans in former Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon’s losing bid in 2020 — are sure to catch up as they push to take back Congress from President Donald Trump’s Republican Party.

“From record-setting races and surging party committee war chests to a competitive landscape that continues to expand, all indicators point to 2026 being the most expensive political advertising cycle in history,” AdImpact said in its report.

Nationwide, AdImpact expects $11.6 billion in ad spending this year, up from the 2023-2024 cycle’s record $11.2 billion. Political spending has exploded nationwide since the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2010 decision in Citizens United v Federal Election Commission.

Ads are also increasingly costly in Maine. A candidate’s 30-second spot in Portland cost an average of almost $250 in 2020, compared with $314 this year. But the rate for a 30-second ad from an issue group has nearly doubled, at almost $945 compared to $490 in 2020, according to AdImpact. Stations must give candidates priority and their lowest rates.

Month-by-month averages have fluctuated this year, but issue groups that have dominated the airwaves have seen costs rise each of the last three months, with the current average for 30 seconds of airtime almost $1,600.

Running on a message of overhauling the power structure in Washington, Platner has proven a solid fundraiser who effectively booted Gov. Janet Mills from the Senate race. Collins and her allies have offered ads touting the senator’s track record of bringing home federal investment and others targeting Platner’s background, from a Nazi-linked tattoo he’s since covered to offensive social media comments and alleged toxic behavior in past relationships.

Platner outraised Collins between January of last year and May, about $16 million to more than $12 million. Platner has almost $350,000 in ads booked from the day after he won the primary through Election Day. Platner’s bid has received a boost of almost $11 million combined in ads going after Collins from the nonprofit dark money groups Majority Forward, Unrig Our Economy and Duty and Honor.

The Collins campaign hasn’t booked nearly as many ads yet between this week and Election Day. But she has significant help from dark money political action committees such as One Nation and Pine Tree Results PAC, which have already been running ads and have booked more than $46 million million combined so far.

Pine Tree Results has seen at least $1 million in donations from the Lexington Fund-connected Republican legal activist Leonard Leo, and $2.5 million from Florida hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin. Nearly 100 billionaires and their spouses have donated almost $10 million collectively to Collins’ network since the beginning of last year, The Maine Monitor reported.

The Winning for Women Action Fund, a super PAC boosting Republican women, has booked $16 million in pro-Collins ads. Her campaign has also received more than $538,000 from at least 315 individual donors bundled through AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobbying group.

Collins’ campaign and allies make the case that Platner will likely pick up just as much if not more super PAC and dark money donations, including from billionaires. They also say while some wealthy donors give based on ideology, many are more focused on stable government, leading them to embrace the longtime lawmaker and chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.

Platner has rallied progressives around the argument that the money flowing into politics leads to votes that too often help donors, not working Mainers. His campaign on Friday pointed to his endorsement in May by the anti-corruption group End Citizens United, which accuses Collins of never meeting “a corporate PAC check she didn’t like.”

“We’re building a movement to get money out of politics and build a government that represents working people, not billionaires,” Platner said at the time.

American Promise, a Massachusetts-based nonprofit pressing for a constitutional amendment to empower states and Congress to regulate campaign fundraising and spending, has made progress, according to spokesperson Jenny Parker. Idaho in April became the 25th state to formally urge Congress to move on the issue.

“Fifty years of Supreme Court rulings mean voters don’t have a say over the rules,” she said. “Our solution is seeing very strong momentum, and it is across parties.”