Maine’s purple towns are the places to watch in this gubernatorial election

With simply over three weeks till the election, Steve Wong thinks his metropolis of Brewer will favor incumbent Gov. Janet Mills — however it’s going to be shut.

Wong, the co-owner of the Artistic Arts Middle studio who identifies as a conservative, mentioned he would like former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, however thinks Mills has captured folks’s consideration with so many commercials. That, and a way that town is leaning extra progressive general, regardless of a robust variety of conservatives who pontificate on social media and moderates who hold their playing cards near their chest.

Wong has crossed get together strains a number of occasions to assist mates in legislative races, however is cautious about speaking politics in his store.

“When it comes time to vote I present my assist on the polls. I don’t get too vocal,” he mentioned. “And being on this enterprise and every part, and coping with the general public — you flip half the folks off, and also you want slightly little bit of all people.”

That’s the way in which politics go in Brewer, a former mill city of about 7,600 registered voters throughout the Penobscot River from Bangor. Republicans have a slight edge with 36 p.c of the registered voters, with Democrats and unenrolled voters taking over a couple of third every. 

Whereas the Republican candidate has gained town within the final 4 presidential elections, three have been very shut: The 2008, 2012 and 2020 elections have been all determined by lower than 3 share factors. Its Maine Home illustration is break up between a Democrat and a Republican.

Whereas huge cities can outline an election’s end result, Maine’s purple cities — the place elections might be determined by a handful of votes and independents usually take up a large share of the citizens — can draw essentially the most hypothesis. Mills, a Democrat, is more and more the favourite within the governor’s race with latest polls giving her double-digit leads over LePage. However Democrats are cautious with financial headwinds anticipated to proceed. Communities like Brewer might resolve who takes the Blaine Home.

“For these races, turnout goes to be extraordinarily essential,” mentioned Robert Glover, an affiliate professor of political science on the College of Maine. “Certain, the larger inhabitants facilities matter, however it will likely be fascinating to see what’s being performed to prove these smaller communities.”

Glover, a former Brewer resident himself, mentioned town is an effective instance of communities that may lean conservative however resist extra polarizing candidates of all stripes. That’s evident in its assist of 2nd Congressional District Republican candidate Bruce Poliquin over his major challenger, Elizabeth Caruso, and the district’s assist of state Sen. Kim Rosen, R-Bucksport, over former state Rep. Larry Lockman, R-Bradley, he mentioned. 

It is usually obvious in its assist of Archie Verow, a Democrat who died in his third time period however who served Brewer on the municipal stage for many years. Glover described him as a “cautious Democrat” who didn’t all the time align with the extra progressive members of his get together.

Wong mentioned Mills has performed a number of issues he likes, however he’s primarily involved about spending in Augusta and what occurs when the COVID-19 federal help supplied to states is spent. He’s additionally involved in regards to the homeless challenges and substance abuse issues the state faces.

“LePage is aware of pull again on the purse strings,” he mentioned.

Locals describe Brewer as pleasant and close-knit, a metropolis within the midst of attempting to revitalize its tiny downtown and broaden a scenic riverwalk. Rep. Kevin O’Connell, D-Brewer, a former Brewer metropolis councilor and mayor who’s working for a second legislative time period, described it as a “small-town Americana” when he was rising up.

The group is fairly supportive and pleasant, however Brewer health coach Adam Clark was cautious of guessing who it would assist for governor, noting there are indicators supporting numerous candidates throughout city.

“Up right here, you get a mixture of each side,” he mentioned.

Glover mentioned Brewer is an instance of many small Maine communities that embody a extra centrist perspective, rejecting extra excessive candidates of both get together. It is usually a spot the place extra youthful folks priced out of city areas like Bangor might select to settle, altering the political dynamics marginally over time.

They’re additionally locations the place impartial voters might be essential, though Glover mentioned lots of them usually align ideologically with one get together however are annoyed by the dominating two-party system.

“This concept that there are these untapped impartial voters, that’s not normally the case,” he mentioned.

That could possibly be mentioned of a suburban Augusta city like Manchester, voting inhabitants 2,234 as of the June primaries. A bed room group for state staff with leisure alternatives afforded by Cobbosseecontee Lake, independents there make up 30 p.c of enrolled voters, in response to the Maine Secretary of State’s workplace, in comparison with 35 p.c Republicans and 30 p.c Democrats. 

Manchester supported former Democratic President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012; in each elections, Obama carried the city  by about 6 share factors. It then flipped to assist Republican Donald Trump for president in 2016, solely to lose to Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020. These races have been a lot nearer — the 2016 contest was determined by 2 share factors and even lower than that in 2020.

Such a slim margin was not a shock to city selectman Robert Gasper. A Manchester resident since 1976 and a Republican, he has seen the city’s impartial and unenrolled members rise over time, which he attributed to state staff not wanting to point out a political affiliation. 

“You all the time marvel how they’re going to vote, as a result of they’re those that can make a distinction when the time comes,” he mentioned.

The city shouldn’t be as politically energetic as neighbors Hallowell and Gardiner, mentioned Garry Hinkley, the chair of the Manchester Democrats committee and in addition a selectman. However he believes the race for governor in Manchester can be shut due to what he described as a steadiness of extra educated liberals and higher-income conservatives within the city.

Certainly, gubernatorial races in Manchester have been tight and have flipped over time: Republican Shawn Moody defeated Mills there by simply 12 votes. LePage had a way more comfy margin in 2014, defeating Democrat Mike Michaud by 507 votes.

For Manchester impartial Dave Worthing, all of it comes all the way down to which candidate can current their concepts in essentially the most affordable method. A life-long resident and energetic volunteer in the neighborhood, he mentioned spending on the state stage is essential to him, and he’s prone to assist Mills – however that doesn’t imply he’ll assist the following Democrat in 4 years. As to how his city will vote come November, he didn’t wish to guess.

“Everybody I’ve spoken with thinks it’s going to be shut,” Worthing mentioned. 

Caitlin Andrews covers state authorities and elections for The Maine Monitor. Attain her with different story concepts by e-mail: caitlin@themainemonitor.org.