So you’re saying there’s a chance? Despite an abysmal start to the 2026 season, the Boston Red Sox remain in the mix for a playoff spot. At least according to FanGraphs, who gives the club a 27.1% chance of reaching the postseason.

Boston’s likely path to October means winning the wild card. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 26.1% chance of winning an American League wild card. The team currently sits threes games back of the third and final wild card, despite a record of 25-33.

Don’t look for a division title this year in Beantown. FanGraphs gives the Red Sox a 1% chance of winning the AL East. Which makes sense, since the team currently sits in last place, 11.5 games behind the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.

But SI’s Tom Verducci and Will Laws thinks Boston has a much tougher chance of making the playoffs. In their deep dive of the postseason, the pair came up with what they call the “Line of Doom.” According to their research, a team that starts “no better than 23–31 and your season is almost over only one-third of the way through the schedule.” Here’s why.

“In the wild card era (since 1995), only one team made the postseason starting with less than 22 wins in the first 54 games, the 2005 Astros (20–34). Of the 231 teams to start 23–31 or worse, only seven made the playoffs—once every 33 times,” Verducci and Laws note.

“Since the postseason field expanded in 2022, 31 teams began 23–31 or worse. Only one, the 2024 Mets (22–32), made the playoffs. That leaves such slow starters with a 1 in 31 chance—virtually the same as the larger sample size,” the pair add.

“The fact is one-third of the season does a good job separating pretenders from contenders. And as the calendar flips to June, understand that the playoff spots won’t change very much. In the four seasons with 12 playoff spots up for grabs, teams in playoff position when May ended kept a playoff spot 73% of the time—35 of 48 teams,” Verducci and Laws conclude.

So what does this have to do with the Red Sox, you ask? It’s Boston’s record after 54 games: 23-31. The “Line of Doom.”

More MLB: Red Sox Legend Backs ‘Worried’ John Henry

Steel City Underground presents post-game takeaways in our Steelers Offseason Recall series, revisiting key moments from the 2025 season and how they shaped the year that followed.

AFC North football rarely looks pretty, and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Week 6 matchup against the Cleveland Browns at Acrisure Stadium followed that familiar formula. What started as a defensive slugfest on a torn-up field eventually turned into another frustrating afternoon for Cleveland as Pittsburgh pulled away for a 23-9 victory.

The win improved the Steelers to 4-1 and extended their remarkable regular season home winning streak against the Browns to 22 games. More importantly, it reinforced an early-season identity centered around disruptive defense, efficient quarterback play, and winning the battle in the trenches.

Looking back, these were the biggest surprises from Pittsburgh’s victory.

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Jalen Ramsey stole the show from Watt and Garrett

Nobody expected Jalen Ramsey to leave Week 6 with more sacks than T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett combined, but that’s exactly what happened.

Ramsey entered the game after missing practice time earlier in the week and proceeded to deliver one of the more unexpected stat lines of the season. The veteran defensive back recorded two sacks and six combined tackles while frequently helping confuse Cleveland’s protection schemes.

Meanwhile, Watt recorded half a sack while Garrett failed to register one entirely.

Ramsey even admitted afterward that the performance surprised him. His production highlighted an emerging trend within Pittsburgh’s defense: pressure was coming from everywhere.

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The Steelers defense overwhelmed Cleveland’s offense

While Ramsey grabbed headlines, the collective defensive effort suffocated Cleveland for most of the afternoon.

The Steelers finished with six sacks as Nick Herbig led the team with two sacks while Ramsey added two of his own. Derrick Harmon, Watt, and Alex Highsmith also got involved as Pittsburgh repeatedly collapsed the pocket around rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel.

Gabriel never looked comfortable. The rookie completed 29 of 59 passes for 221 yards and struggled once Cleveland became one-dimensional after falling behind. He finished with a passer rating of 66.3 while absorbing constant punishment.

Pittsburgh didn’t rely solely on edge pressure either. Defensive backs blitzed, interior rushers collapsed protection, and disguised looks forced Cleveland into mistakes.

Perhaps equally impressive was how the Steelers handled Browns rookie running back Quinshon Judkins. Entering the matchup, Judkins had averaged 4.6 yards per carry and looked like one of Cleveland’s few consistent offensive weapons. Pittsburgh erased that advantage, holding him to a season-low 36 rushing yards on 12 carries while limiting him to 3.0 yards per attempt.

Through five games played after their bye week, the Steelers had already amassed 20 sacks and were rapidly becoming one of football’s most disruptive defenses.

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Myles Garrett disappeared

The Browns needed a game-changing performance from Myles Garrett. Instead, Pittsburgh’s offensive line turned in one of its best performances of the season.

Garrett moved around the formation throughout the game, but he spent much of the afternoon lined up across from Broderick Jones. With occasional help early and more one-on-one opportunities later, Jones and company neutralized Cleveland’s biggest defensive weapon.

Garrett finished with only two combined tackles. He failed to record a solo tackle, sack, forced fumble, quarterback hit, or pass defended.

Keeping Garrett quiet fundamentally changed how Cleveland could attack Rodgers and allowed Pittsburgh’s offense to remain balanced throughout the afternoon.

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Rodgers stayed efficient and upright

Aaron Rodgers didn’t deliver a vintage statistical masterpiece: he simply controlled the game.

The veteran quarterback completed 21 of 30 passes for 235 yards while distributing the football efficiently and trusting Arthur Smith‘s offensive approach. Rodgers leaned heavily on his tight ends early before taking advantage of favorable matchups later in the game.

His biggest moments arrived in the second half. Rodgers connected with Connor Heyward for a touchdown strike before finding D.K. Metcalf for another score that helped create separation on the scoreboard.

Equally important, Rodgers stayed upright. For only the second time that season, Pittsburgh allowed zero sacks. Cleveland hit Rodgers only three times despite him attempting 30 passes.

Compare that with Dillon Gabriel, who absorbed six sacks and 16 total quarterback hits.

The offensive line, aided by extra blocking looks featuring Spencer Anderson, kept Cleveland’s front from controlling the game and allowed Rodgers to operate comfortably. Metcalf benefited from the protection, turning four receptions into 95 yards while the Steelers spread touches across Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, Roman Wilson, Darnell Washington, and Heyward.

Meanwhile, Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, and Kaleb Johnson combined for 89 rushing yards to maintain offensive balance. Pittsburgh averaged 5.8 yards per play and controlled possession despite both teams having the same number of drives.

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The officiating nearly stole the spotlight

Not everything about the victory came without frustration. Ron Torbert’s officiating crew inserted itself into the game repeatedly as Pittsburgh absorbed ten accepted penalties during an afternoon filled with questionable decisions.

Several pass interference rulings frustrated players and fans alike.

Jerry Jeudy appeared to drag Brandin Echols down by both shoulder pads on one play, yet the result went against Pittsburgh. Later, Browns cornerback Denzel Ward appeared to pin D.K. Metcalf’s arm without drawing a flag.

Even Watt found himself repeatedly flagged for alignment penalties despite checking positioning with officials beforehand, leading to visible frustration from Mike Tomlin on the sideline.

The most controversial moment arrived on special teams. Ke’Shawn Williams appeared to spark the crowd with a 47-yard punt return before an illegal blindside block penalty on Jabrill Peppers erased the play. The penalty not only wiped away field position but also backed Pittsburgh up an additional ten yards.

Despite the officiating frustrations, the Steelers remained composed, and by the end of the afternoon, that discipline, paired with suffocating defense and efficient offense, delivered another divisional win and continued building momentum heading into a critical AFC North stretch.