Connecticut
Xavier vs. Connecticut (UCONN) Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 1-28-2024
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The Xavier Musketeers will face the Connecticut Huskies on Sunday at XL Center. Tip-off between the Big East foes is at noon ET.
Xavier (10-9 SU, 12-6 ATS, and 10-8 O/U) lost 85-78 to Creighton on Tuesday. The Musketeers are 4-4 in Big East play this season.
UConn (17-2 SU, 11-8 ATS, and 9-9-1 O/U) beat Villanova 66-65 last Saturday. The Huskies lead the conference with a 7-1 record.
Connecticut beat Xavier 80-75 on January 10. The Huskies shot 54.4 percent from the field and held the Musketeers to 35.9 percent. UConn missed half of its free-throw attempts and was outrebounded 42-30, helping Xavier stick around. Still, the Huskies never relented. They led by as many as 14 points and never trailed by more than one point.
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Can Xavier find its groove in Hartford?
Xavier’s three-game winning streak came to an end on the road at Creighton, as the Musketeers shot only 40.8 percent from the field. The Blue Jays knocked down 28 of their 57 field goals (49.1%), including 11 of their 28 three-point attempts (39.3%). Sophomore guard Desmond Claude led the Musketeers in scoring with 20 points on 7-for-23 shooting.
Xavier scores 76.8 points per game (113th) on 44.2 percent shooting (214th), including 35.1 percent from three-point distance (127th). It converts 73.4 percent of its free-throw attempts (99th) and averages 35.9 rebounds (50th), 16.8 assists (22nd), and 11.6 turnovers (135th) per game.
The Musketeers give up 71.7 points per game (178th) on 40.8 percent shooting (54th), including 32.2 percent from deep (117th), with 33.4 rebounds per game (273rd). Xavier averages 3.9 blocks (98th), 6.7 steals (142nd), and 17.4 fouls (216th) per game.
KenPom ranks Xavier 34th nationally. The Musketeers are 48th in offensive efficiency, 36th in defensive efficiency, and 60th in tempo (schedule-adjusted).
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Can UConn hold onto the #1 ranking?
Connecticut outlasted Villanova on the road last weekend despite shooting only 40 percent from the field, including 29 percent from long range. UConn had 21 fast break points and knocked down 18 of 24 free-throw attempts.
The Huskies give up 81.1 points per game (44th) on 49.4 percent shooting (15th), including 35.1 percent from three-point distance (124th). They convert 72.9 percent of their foul shots (115th) and average 34.8 rebounds (88th), 17.9 assists (13th), and 10.3 turnovers (41st) per game.
Connecticut gives up 64.6 points per game (31st), and its opponents shoot 39.9 percent (31st), including 33.1 percent from beyond the arc (178th), with 25.4 rebounds per game (2nd). UConn averages 5.4 blocks (14th), 6.3 steals (198th), and 17.0 fouls (170th) per game.
KenPom ranks Connecticut 7th in the nation. The Huskies are 3rd in offensive efficiency, 28th in defensive efficiency, and 331st in tempo (schedule-adjusted).
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Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
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Rating:
I’m placing a four-unit wager on Xavier, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games, to cover the spread on Sunday afternoon at UConn. The Huskies barely squeezed out a win in the last meeting between these teams despite a poor shooting performance by the Musketeers. It will take more than that to win and cover, as the Musketeers are desperate for a win after losing three straight games.
Connecticut will have its work cut defending the perimeter, as Xavier stars Quincy Olivari (42.9 3PT%) and Dayvion McKnight (38.1 3PT%) are threats from deep. On the other end of the court, Xavier’s interior defense will challenge UConn center Donovan Clingan all game. The Musketeers hold their opponents to 51.9 percent at the rim and block nearly 14 percent of their rim shot attempts.
Prediction: Xavier covers
Full-Game Total Pick
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Rating:
The first meeting between these teams went over, as they combined for 155 points. Xavier shot 36 percent overall in that game, but outrebounded the Huskies 42-30, collecting 20 offensive rebounds. While Clingan was unavailable in that game, I still expect the Musketeers (15th in total rebounds) to battle for offensive rebounds, earning crucial extra possessions. UConn is much slower tempo than Xavier, so second-chance opportunities will likely determine whether the over has a shot at cashing.
I predict a competitive, back-and-forth game between these Big East foes tomorrow. That will result in the sixth straight over in Musketeers games.
Prediction: Over