The UConn Huskies have emerged from its poor showing in Maui last month to look the part of a Final Four contender yet again as we draw closer to the full swing of Big East play. 

The Huskies are off an impressive win at Madison Square Garden against Gonzaga and return to Stoors to face a Xavier team that is going to be short-handed on Wednesday night. The Musketeers will be without leading scorer Zach Freemantle, who suffered an injury over the weekend in a tight loss against Cincinnati. 

What’s the drop-off for the Musketeers? Let’s break it down with our betting preview. 

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 147.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Xavier

Dayvion McKnight: With Freemantle out, a lot of the pressure will turn to McKnight, the team’s lead guard. The senior is a dead-eye three-point shooter, hitting 45% of his shots while leading the team in assist rate, but he’ll need to create more for himself to offset the loss of Freemantle, who can play both inside and out. 

Connecticut

Liam McNeeley: The freshman has done a bit of everything in his first 11 games with the program, second in scoring and rebounding with nearly 14 points and more than six rebounds per game while providing sturdy defense on the wing. In UConn’s motion-based offense, McNeeley has slid in nicely as someone who can create his own shot, evident in getting to the free throw line 12 times against Gonzaga over the weekend. 

The market has rightly moved against Xavier on the news that Freemantle will be out indefinitely, and the numbers are quite jarring at the impact he has on the roster. 

When Freemantle is off the floor, the offense stays fairly stagnant, scoring about two points less per 100 possessions, but the defense falls off a cliff. Xavier goes from allowing 89.9 points per 100 possessions to 118, which is the difference between ranking 10th in that metric and 336th, per Hoop-Explorer.

The Musketeers won’t slow down the UConn offense without Freemantle on the floor as the Huskies are the best two-point shooting team in the country, which can be maximized without the team having its power forward that can play both along the perimeter and shut down the paint. 

However, with a limited drop-off on offense, can the likes of McKnight and Ryan Conwell get the fast-paced Xavier offense going to do some scoring in what may be a blowout loss? 

Since Sean Miller returned to the program in 2023, the average score of the Xavier-UConn games has been just shy of 155 points and I believe this total is over-adjusted for the loss of Freemantle, who didn’t play in either game last season. 

KenPom projects this total at 150, and we have shown that the Xavier offense hasn’t fallen off that much this season with Freemantle off the floor, so I’ll play against the idea and back the over in what should be a high-scoring affair. 

PICK: OVER 147.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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