Connecticut
Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 7-14-2024
A nationally televised matchup in the WNBA is set for Sunday afternoon when the Phoenix Mercury (12-11, 4th West) take on the Connecticut Sun (17-5, 2nd East). Phoenix just lost by nine on the road in Indiana, and Connecticut lost by three at home to New York. This will be the third matchup between these teams this season, as the Sun have won each of the first two games. Tipoff is set for 1:00 EST from Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut.
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Mercury’s Roster is Thin
The WNBA is approaching the long gap in their schedule, when the league takes a break for their players to play in the Olympics. Phoenix only has two games left until reaching that break, and the team could use the time to get healthy. The Mercury only had seven players healthy for their last game against Indiana, and lost Brittney Griner to an injury after she only played 11 minutes. Kahleah Copper did what she could with 36 points, but the team still lost to the Fever.
Copper is the top scorer on the team at 23.5 PPG, and adds another 4.4 RPG and 2.3 APG. She is a 6’1 guard and she took 25 shots in their last game, as Brittney Griner left the game with an injury, and Diana Taurasi was out with a lower leg injury. Natasha Cloud was also out, leaving the Mercury without three of their top four scorers. With all the injuries, the top scorer behind Copper is Sophie Cunningham, she is a 6’1 guard averaging 8.0 PPG, but she stepped up with 21 points against the Fever. The Mercury also got 10 points and seven rebounds from Mikiah Herbert Harrigan against Indiana and she is only averaging 3.2 PPG.
The Mercury are 4th in the league in scoring with 83.9 PPG, and their defense is 9th by allowing 85.2 PPG. Phoenix plays at a fast tempo, leading to more points on both ends of the floor. The Mercury are 5th in the league in made threes per game, but they will still be without their top shooter as Diana Taurasi will miss this game. Natasha Cloud is also out, and Brittney Griner is listed as day-to-day for this game.
Connecticut Holds on to Second
The Connecticut Sun have won three of their last four games, with their only loss coming to the best team in the league in the New York Liberty. Connecticut is second in the Eastern Conference, and second in the overall league standings which factor in for playoff position. They are two games behind the Liberty in the standings, and have a 1.5-game lead over the Lynx in third. In their last game, Connecticut was led by Dewanna Bonner with 22 points and nine rebounds in the loss to New York.
The Sun have five players averaging double figures in scoring, and all five are in the starting lineup. Bonner is the top scorer of all of them, she is a 6’4 forward getting 17.1 PPG and 6.3 RPG. Bonner has been on fire lately, as she has scored 22 or more in each of her last three games. Brionna Jones is a 6’3 forward and DiJonai Carrington is a 5’11 guard, and each of those players average exactly 13.0 PPG. Alyssa Thomas is their best all-around player, she is a 6’2 forward scoring 11.5 PPG, and she also leads the team with 9.4 RPG and 7.9 APG.
The Sun are 8th in the league in scoring with 79.3 PPG, but they also have to top defense in the league by only allowing 72.7 PPG. The Sun play at a much slower tempo than the Mercury, and rely on their interior defense to get stops in the paint. Connecticut does not shoot much from the outside, as they are only 10th in the league in made threes per game.
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Best Bets for Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun
Full-Game Side Bet
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Connecticut gets to play Phoenix at the perfect time, as the Mercury have five injuries listed on their report, and may only have six players for this game. Diana Taurasi is out, and Brittney Griner may also miss this game as she went down in their last outing. On top of this, important contributors Natasha Cloud and Sug Sutton will miss this game as well. This is bad news for Phoenix, as they must take on this Connecticut team that is at full strength. Their whole starting lineup averages 10 or more points per game, and they are all active for this game. Even if Griner plays, she may be slowed by her injury, and Connecticut will dominate the middle with their multiple forwards inside. Bonner, Thomas and Jones can all finish around the rim, and will take advantage of this thin Phoenix roster. Connecticut is the deeper team, and will run the Mercury off the floor on national television.
Take the Sun to cover.
Prediction: Connecticut to cover
Full-Game Total Pick
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There is a clash of styles in this game, Connecticut likes to play slow, and the Mercury push the pace. Connecticut has multiple forwards who can score on the inside, but also protect the paint on the defensive end. They play slow and utilize their advantages inside. Phoenix plays faster, but they are so limited by injuries that they will not be able to control the tempo. The Mercury could potentially start this game with only six available players, they will not be fresh enough to keep pushing the tempo on every possession. The only scorer left on Phoenix is Copper, but Connecticut knows this and will focus all their defensive energy on stopping the Mercury’s star guard. Connecticut wins the battle of tempo, and slows this game down forcing an under.
Take the under.
Prediction: Under