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Opinion: Lies, damned lies, and CT crime statistics

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Opinion: Lies, damned lies, and CT crime statistics


The quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics,” is most often credited to British statesman Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881). I remembered this quote after reading a recent newspaper article, where the reporter attempted to make a convincing argument that crime is down in Connecticut by citing statistics and interviewing a University of New Haven professor (who previously served as a Democrat member of the Connecticut House of Representatives from 1986 until 2011).

The article poo-pooed the polling numbers cited by Ben Proto, the current Connecticut Republican party chairman, who stated it is “…one of the top three or four issues…” that citizens are most concerned about. But the Pew Research Center reported that in 2022, “Around six-in-ten registered voters (61%) say violent crime is very important when making their decision about who to vote for in this year’s congressional elections.”

Greg Dillon

This is the same argument often used to quash debate about today’s economy. “Inflation? Nonsense, we’ve always had inflation! Higher fuel prices? Gas prices are going down! Grocery costs? Food has always been expensive!” The problem is — just like with crime — no reasonable, clear- minded person actually believes it. We believe what we experience, what we see, what we hear.

The murkiness of recent crime statistics is due to several things. Here is one such thing reported by The Marshall Project:

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“The uncertainty largely stems from the fact that 2021’s data was more incomplete than any in recent memory. Comprehensive FBI data depends on law enforcement agencies’ (there are about 18,000 in the U.S.) voluntary submissions. This year about 7,000 police agencies, covering about 35% of the U.S. population, were missing.”

Two of the largest police departments in the country — New York City and Los Angeles — failed to report their crime stats. Furthermore, according to the article: “Some entire states, including California and Florida, sent virtually no data.”

Sean Kennedy and Mark Morgan (a former Assistant FBI Director) published an article in The Washington Examiner in 2024 titled “Bad Data From The FBI Mislead About Crime:”

“In reality, violent crime is up substantially from 2019 levels. In big cities, murder is still elevated — up 23% since 2019 across all 70 cities tracked by the MCCA (Major Cities Chiefs Association) and up 18% according to a 32-city analysis by the nonprofit organization Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ). For aggravated assaults, CCJ’s 25-city sample found those up 8%, while the MCCA larger sample of cities reported a 26% increase over the same period.”

With regard to Connecticut, the statistics cannot be trusted because of the way in which crime is (or isn’t) reported. I am in touch with many police officers all over the state who have confirmed this. Many victims of car break-ins don’t bother reporting the crimes if their vehicles weren’t heavily damaged or if nothing of significant value was stolen. Further, when thieves target numerous vehicles in a parking lot, a commercial garage, or a residential street, often only one complaint number is issued for the incident. This means 20 cars may have been burglarized, and it is statistically reported as a single incident. This tamps down the numbers for that city or town.

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The same applies to shoplifting. Many chain stores and franchises have policies in place that prohibit store employees from intervening in shoplifting and theft incidents. Does that mean retail theft is down? Of course not. Just the reporting of the thefts is down. This statistic becomes meaningless when it is reported by law enforcement, since it does not reflect actual crime or accurate crime reporting.

This same game is played routinely with motor vehicle offenses. Who in their right mind thinks there are fewer dangerous drivers on the road today than ever? When we look at the number of traffic tickets issued and arrests made for impaired driving, speeding, or reckless operation, the numbers don’t reflect that. Why? Because according to the CT Data Collaborative: “In 2022, a total of 313,346 traffic stops were conducted by police departments in Connecticut. This represents a 39% decrease in traffic stops compared to 2019.”

When you reduce traffic stops by almost 40 percent, you obviously decrease the number of infractions issued and arrests made. This does not mean the number of violations themselves has decreased, just the recording and reporting of those violations have.

Consider the numerous street takeovers we have all witnessed throughout our state. The most recent one was in September on 2024, involving more than 100 motorcycles. According to the New Haven Independent, these vehicles were: “…performing various stunts and blocking all travel lanes on I‑95 Southbound in the New Haven, West Haven, Orange, Milford, and Stratford area.”

It gets better. When police attempted to stop a pickup truck that was leading the pack while filming the stunts, the article reported:

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“Simultaneously, a number of motorcycles began to surround the Trooper’s cruiser, intentionally interfering with the Trooper’s efforts to stop the GMC and at times almost striking the cruiser. The operator of the GMC failed to stop and continued to travel Southbound on I-95 at a high rate of speed. To avoid a potential risk to the public and involved parties, the Trooper deactivated their cruiser’s emergency lights and siren and disengaged from the vehicle.”

The truck was eventually located and stopped in New York state and two men were arrested. In a single incident, more than 100 vehicles broke multiple traffic laws repeatedly throughout numerous towns, and zero tickets were issued. None of this will ever be reflected in any statistics.

While we’re still throwing statistics around, here is another interesting one that may help explain why it is reported that violent crime is down. This stat courtesy of the Connecticut Office of Policy Management (OPM). “Nationally, crime continues to be under-reported, with only an estimated two in five (42%) violent victimizations reported to police in 2022.”

And if crime in Connecticut really is down, why does OPM report: “6% more criminal cases were added to the Geographical Area (GA) courts in 2023 compared to FY2022.”

Excerpts from a CT Office of Policy and Management report. Credit: CT Office of Policy and Management

I conducted an internet search of murder in Hartford. Here is what came up on the first page of my search: “Top stories of 2021: Hartford Has Deadliest Year Since 2003” (Hartford Courant); “At 35 Killings, Hartford 2022 Homicide Total Most in 19 Years” (CT Insider); Hartford Grapples with City’s 8th Homicide in 10 Days” (CT Insider, 2023). Do those headlines reflect a downward shift in violent crime?

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And if you think you are safer because you are lucky enough not to call Hartford home, this just happened to a 22-year-old kidnap victim in the shoreline community of Branford in September, according to Fox 61 News:

“The victim’s hair was lit on fire, his back was sliced with a knife, and he was shot several times with a BB gun, all over the course of three hours, according to police. There is also evidence that he was sexually assaulted, police said. When officers interviewed the victim at Yale New Haven Hospital, they said his eyes were swollen shut, his front teeth were missing, and he was being treated for lung damage.”

Fortunately, three people were arrested for this heinous brutality, one adult (from Hartford) and two juveniles.

Call me a skeptic, but it will take more than cherry-picking numbers from flawed statistics and conflicting data to convince me crime is down. Seeing is believing, and everything I watch on the news or read online tells me crime — in Connecticut and nationally — is on the rise.

(Note: I wrote this article on September 30; the FBI corrected their statistics on October 16, showing that violent crime has actually increased — not decreased — as it previously reported.)

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Greg Dillon was a 30-year career law enforcement officer who lives in Connecticut and is the author of The Thin Blue Lie: An Honest Cop vs. The FBI.



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Police investigating after Hartford ICE protest incidents

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Police investigating after Hartford ICE protest incidents


Hartford Police are investigating what led to a skirmish between protestors and possible federal employees during a protest outside a federal building on Thursday.  

The incident, captured on camera, occurred when protestors tried to prevent two vehicles from entering the Abraham A. Ribicoff building on Thursday evening.  

The vehicles, which Hartford officials believe were driven by federal employees, proceeded through the crowd.  

The mayor said a van struck one of the protestors in the process, and a separate person is captured on video smashing the back window of the van as it drove away.  

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Separately, also captured on video, an unidentified person, whom the mayor says believes is affiliated with the federal government, is seen spraying pepper spray at the protestors.   

“We will be investigating what appears to be a hit and run incident with pepper spray being used on attendees of the vigil last night,” Mayor Arunan Arulampalam (D-Hartford) said during a press conference Friday at City Hall.  

Arulamapalam said Hartford police will investigate all aspects of the incident, including the driver who allegedly struck the protestor, the individual spraying what appeared to be pepper spray, and the individual who was seen smashing the window. 

They have not identified the driver, the person who was struck, the person who damaged the vehicle, or the person who was pepper-sprayed.

The event was one of many around the country that served as a vigil for Renee Good, the woman shot and killed by ICE in Minneapolis on Wednesday, as well as a protest against ICE.  

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“What we saw last night was a peaceful vigil in the city of Hartford turned violent,” said Mayor Arunan Arulampalam, who said around 200 people were in attendance in total.

Debra Cohen, of Wethersfield, said she was at the vigil when she and others learned there was a potential federal van parked behind the Ribicoff building, and they were concerned ICE had someone detained in the vehicle.  

The Department of Homeland Security has not responded to NBC Connecticut’s request for comment. The agency has not said publicly whether the people were ICE agents or employees with any DHS agency, or whether the van was involved in immigration enforcement activities.  

Cohen said she and others went from Main Street to the back side of the building and hoped to block the van from leaving. 

She says people, whom she also believed were federal law enforcement, were “yelling at us to get back. To get back, to get back. We stood our ground. and that’s when the pepper spray came out.” 

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Cohen says that the individual then sprayed them from behind the gate.

“It wasn’t so much a taste as a burning that I’ve never felt before,” she said, describing the spray. “It was not only in my eyes, and I seriously couldn’t open my eyes or see anything. It was all on my face, on my lips, which was really, really bad.” 

Video also captured some protestors trying to stop a car in front of the van from leaving the Ribicoff parking lot.  

Both vehicles continue through the crowd, at which point police said the van struck one of the protestors.  

The protestor denied medical attention, according to the City.

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Gov. Ned Lamont, (D-Connecticut), said Friday he wants to wait for the investigation before making judgement, but he was critical of some of the protestors.  

Lamont, speaking at a separate press conference at the Legislative Office Building, said protestors who obstruct law enforcement shift the focus.  

“ICE took an open window and shot somebody in the head and shot her dead, and she was an innocent mother of three,” he said. I don’t want anything to distract from that.”  

Lamont pointed to frequent comments from President Donald Trump claiming Democrats and liberal-leaning voters engage in violent protests around the country.  

“You’re doing just what President Trump says,” Lamont said. “There’s a demonstration here in Hartford, a couple of people do what they shouldn’t do. All of a sudden, that distracts. That’s just what he wants.” 

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Rep. Vincent Candelora, (R-Minority Leader), said he wanted to hear Lamont us strong language to tell protestors never to obstruct law enforcement.  

“I think we need to draw a hard line on people stepping into traffic and trying to obstruct that traffic,” he said. “We saw what happened in Minnesota, and we don’t want that to happen in Connecticut.”  

Candelora also believes that both sides need to tone down their rhetoric, objecting to how Democrats have talked about ICE and to how Vice President J.D. Vance and others in the Trump administration characterized Good.  

“I don’t like the use of the word terrorist to describe the victim as much as I didn’t like that word used to describe ICE,” he said. “I think that word has been cheapened, and we should be dialing back that rhetoric.”  

Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut), also speaking at the press conference in the LOB, said he wants an independent review of Good’s death, suggesting a task force of local, state, and federal law enforcement officials.  

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He also supported Hartford’s efforts to investigate the conduct of federal agents.  

“There are state laws that apply; state authorities are not without jurisdiction,” he said. “They have authority.”  

Blumenthal separately wants more information on how ICE trains new employees, noting the agency has been hiring at a rapid rate as Trump looks to deliver on his campaign promise of ramped-up deportations.  

Blumenthal is the ranking Democrat on the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, which released a report last month about the conduct of ICE agents.  

Specifically, the report details the claims of 22 U.S. citizens who claim they were assaulted, and some detained, by ICE agents.  

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New Connecticut economic data: “It takes job seekers longer”

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New Connecticut economic data: “It takes job seekers longer”


The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in December, capping what economists say was the weakest year for job creation since 2009, aside from 2020.

Data from October shows about 73,000 job openings in Connecticut, according to the Connecticut Business and Industry Association. The state’s unemployment rate stands at about 4%, which is historically low.

Here is the topline information from Connecticut’s October and November jobs report released this week, according to the state’s Labor Department (data was delayed due to the government shutdown):

  • Overall, Connecticut job growth is +1,800 from November 2024 to November 2025.
  • Private sector payrolls were up 1,900 in November after a 900 decline in October.
  • Health Care & Social Assistance is up 1,700 in November and recovered September losses.
  • Construction is at the highest level since August 2008, a trend expected to continue with infrastructure and housing initiatives.
  • Retail continues a slow downward trajectory. The sector was up 200 jobs in November, not enough to offset September and October losses.
  • Initial unemployment claims are just under 30,000, slightly higher than last year at this time when they were around 25,000.

In a press release, Connecticut Department of Labor Commissioner Danté Bartolomeo said: “After several years of strong job growth that created a job seekers’ market, the economy is now more competitive—it takes job seekers longer to find employment than it has in the recent past.”

Experts say the experience of finding a job can be very different for job seekers.

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Dustin Nord, director of the CBIA Foundation for Economic Growth and Opportunity, said the state may be seeing what economists call frictional unemployment.

“We’re not seeing huge changes in hiring and quits,” Nord said, adding that it’s possible people who are losing positions are not necessarily seeing positions open in the field that they’re losing their job from.

Although unemployment remains relatively low, Nord said recent trends raise concerns about the direction of the labor market.

“There’s not that many people on the sidelines, but I’d say the trends are definitely not moving in the right direction,” Nord said.

Connecticut faces longer‑term workforce challenges. The state’s labor force has declined by about 19,600 people since January, according to the new data.

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“Federal immigration policies may impact these numbers. Connecticut employers rely on an immigrant workforce to offset retirements in Connecticut’s aging workforce and the state’s low birthrate; 23% of Connecticut workers are born outside of the U.S.,” the state’s Department of Labor said.

Connecticut’s labor force participation rate of 64% is higher than the national rate of 62.5%, the Department of Labor said.

The CBIA said since the COVID‑19 pandemic, Connecticut’s labor force has grown just 0.2%, compared with 4.3% growth nationwide.

That gap is occurring even as wages rise. Average weekly earnings in Connecticut are up 5.4% since November 2024, outpacing inflation.

Still, the CBIA says those gains reinforce the need to address affordability across the state.

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“If we take the right steps, especially over the next six months, to try to find ways to make it more affordable,” Nord said. “I think there’s no reason we can’t continue to see, at least steady economic activity in the state.”

Nord said those steps include addressing costs tied to housing, energy and childcare.

Overall, the data suggests Connecticut’s job growth has been largely stagnant. Looking ahead, what happens in 2026 will depend both on state‑level policy decisions and broader national economic trends.

Patrick Flaherty, director of research at the Connecticut Department of Labor, said in a review of the data that recent numbers suggest the pace of growth could continue, but at a slower rate.

“The November increase suggests modest job growth that Connecticut’s labor market has shown could continue into 2026, although at a slower pace, as long as the nation avoids a downturn,” Flaherty said.

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See the state report here. Read the CBIA’s analysis here.



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Opinion: Three things CT must do to up its food game

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Opinion: Three things CT must do to up its food game


If you grew up in North Carolina, you don’t just eat fast food — you inherit it. The first time I walked into a Connecticut drive-thru, I realized something that shocked my younger self: I missed home because I missed the food. Connecticut may pride itself on being the Pizza Capital of the United States, but for anyone raised in the South, that crown doesn’t solve the state’s biggest problem — it lacks the fast-food culture that keeps everyday meals fun, comforting and quick. 

Before Nutmeggers fire their ovens to defend New Haven, let me acknowledge the obvious: Connecticut has world-class pizza. The state is so proud of it that the governor’s office issued a press release doubling down on the title, even noting that there are 1,376 pizza restaurants statewide and 63 in New Haven alone.

And yes, the pies are incredible. Many are handmade, cooked in old ovens and worth the wait. 

But that’s the point: You have to wait. A lot. 

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Most weekends, you’ll stand in line at Pepe’s longer than it takes to drive from New Britain to Hartford. Connecticut pizza may be extraordinary, but it’s not fast food. And it can’t replace what the South does best: comfort meals you can get in minutes. 

As a North Carolina native now living in Connecticut, here are three things this state needs to truly level up its food game: 

  1. A legendary fast-food chain — ideally Bojangles.

Southerners don’t go to Bojangles. We return to it. It’s fried chicken that tastes like home, biscuits you can’t replicate, and seasoned fries that make road trips worth it. 

Max Frazier

Connecticut may not realize it, but people here miss it too. Some residents literally drive from Connecticut to North Carolina just for Bojangles, as shown in this Reddit thread from transplanted Southerners longing for a “Bojangles fix.” Another Reddit post raves about trying Bojangles for the first time. 

Even YouTube creators have jumped in, praising the chain with videos like this review of its famous chicken and biscuits. 

There’s also a full breakdown of the chain’s significance in “The Untold Truth of Bojangles,” which you can read here. For an outside perspective, a Connecticut-based writer included Bojangles in a ranking of the best Southern chains.

And recently, Bojangles made business news when reports suggested the company is up for sale — a reminder of how culturally important it is to its fans.

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Bottom line: Bojangles has more than 800 locations across 17 states, a loyal fan base and a flavor profile the Northeast simply doesn’t match. 

  1. More variety. The South’s fast-food universe is huge.

A writer who lived in both New England and the South described the contrast clearly in this Business Insider piece: “The fast-food options are seemingly endless in the South.”

North Carolina has Cook Out, Zaxby’s, Biscuitville, Smithfield’s Chicken ’N Bar-B-Q, and more. Connecticut has far fewer regional chains, meaning fewer signature flavors and fewer low-cost comfort foods. It’s not just about fried chicken — it’s about choice. 

  1. A stronger culture of quick, flavorful meals.

Fast food in N.C. isn’t just food — it’s rhythm. It’s grabbing a Cajun Filet Biscuit before school, hitting Cook Out after a late game or stopping at Bojangles on road trips because you know exactly what that first bite will taste like. Connecticut leans heavily on sit-down meals and pizza culture. Great traditions, but not always practical for families, students or workers looking for fast, inexpensive meals on the go. 

The Counterargument: But Connecticut Has Pizza. 

True — Connecticut has some of the best pizza in the country, and locals love it fiercely. But pizza isn’t filling the same role Bojangles does in North Carolina. It’s not a drive-thru meal; it’s not a cultural touchstone, and it doesn’t come with a sweet tea strong enough to fix a bad day. Pizza can be phenomenal while still leaving a gap in the food landscape. 

The Solution 

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It’s time for Connecticut to welcome a major Southern chain, ideally Bojangles, and embrace the culture that comes with it. Even a single location would bring new flavors, new customers, new jobs and maybe even a new sense of identity around quick comfort food. Connecticut doesn’t have to stop loving pizza. But it can expand its palate — and its drive-thru options. 

Because here’s the truth that no Connecticut resident wants to hear from a Southerner: Your pizza is amazing. But you have no idea how good life can be with a Bo-Berry Biscuit. 

Max Frazier is a sophomore, a Blue Devils basketball player and a proud North Carolinian studying communication at Central Connecticut State University. 

 

 

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