Connecticut
Opinion: Lies, damned lies, and CT crime statistics
The quote, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics,” is most often credited to British statesman Benjamin Disraeli (1804-1881). I remembered this quote after reading a recent newspaper article, where the reporter attempted to make a convincing argument that crime is down in Connecticut by citing statistics and interviewing a University of New Haven professor (who previously served as a Democrat member of the Connecticut House of Representatives from 1986 until 2011).
The article poo-pooed the polling numbers cited by Ben Proto, the current Connecticut Republican party chairman, who stated it is “…one of the top three or four issues…” that citizens are most concerned about. But the Pew Research Center reported that in 2022, “Around six-in-ten registered voters (61%) say violent crime is very important when making their decision about who to vote for in this year’s congressional elections.”
Greg DillonThis is the same argument often used to quash debate about today’s economy. “Inflation? Nonsense, we’ve always had inflation! Higher fuel prices? Gas prices are going down! Grocery costs? Food has always been expensive!” The problem is — just like with crime — no reasonable, clear- minded person actually believes it. We believe what we experience, what we see, what we hear.
The murkiness of recent crime statistics is due to several things. Here is one such thing reported by The Marshall Project:
“The uncertainty largely stems from the fact that 2021’s data was more incomplete than any in recent memory. Comprehensive FBI data depends on law enforcement agencies’ (there are about 18,000 in the U.S.) voluntary submissions. This year about 7,000 police agencies, covering about 35% of the U.S. population, were missing.”
Two of the largest police departments in the country — New York City and Los Angeles — failed to report their crime stats. Furthermore, according to the article: “Some entire states, including California and Florida, sent virtually no data.”
Sean Kennedy and Mark Morgan (a former Assistant FBI Director) published an article in The Washington Examiner in 2024 titled “Bad Data From The FBI Mislead About Crime:”
“In reality, violent crime is up substantially from 2019 levels. In big cities, murder is still elevated — up 23% since 2019 across all 70 cities tracked by the MCCA (Major Cities Chiefs Association) and up 18% according to a 32-city analysis by the nonprofit organization Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ). For aggravated assaults, CCJ’s 25-city sample found those up 8%, while the MCCA larger sample of cities reported a 26% increase over the same period.”
With regard to Connecticut, the statistics cannot be trusted because of the way in which crime is (or isn’t) reported. I am in touch with many police officers all over the state who have confirmed this. Many victims of car break-ins don’t bother reporting the crimes if their vehicles weren’t heavily damaged or if nothing of significant value was stolen. Further, when thieves target numerous vehicles in a parking lot, a commercial garage, or a residential street, often only one complaint number is issued for the incident. This means 20 cars may have been burglarized, and it is statistically reported as a single incident. This tamps down the numbers for that city or town.
The same applies to shoplifting. Many chain stores and franchises have policies in place that prohibit store employees from intervening in shoplifting and theft incidents. Does that mean retail theft is down? Of course not. Just the reporting of the thefts is down. This statistic becomes meaningless when it is reported by law enforcement, since it does not reflect actual crime or accurate crime reporting.
This same game is played routinely with motor vehicle offenses. Who in their right mind thinks there are fewer dangerous drivers on the road today than ever? When we look at the number of traffic tickets issued and arrests made for impaired driving, speeding, or reckless operation, the numbers don’t reflect that. Why? Because according to the CT Data Collaborative: “In 2022, a total of 313,346 traffic stops were conducted by police departments in Connecticut. This represents a 39% decrease in traffic stops compared to 2019.”
When you reduce traffic stops by almost 40 percent, you obviously decrease the number of infractions issued and arrests made. This does not mean the number of violations themselves has decreased, just the recording and reporting of those violations have.
Consider the numerous street takeovers we have all witnessed throughout our state. The most recent one was in September on 2024, involving more than 100 motorcycles. According to the New Haven Independent, these vehicles were: “…performing various stunts and blocking all travel lanes on I‑95 Southbound in the New Haven, West Haven, Orange, Milford, and Stratford area.”
It gets better. When police attempted to stop a pickup truck that was leading the pack while filming the stunts, the article reported:
“Simultaneously, a number of motorcycles began to surround the Trooper’s cruiser, intentionally interfering with the Trooper’s efforts to stop the GMC and at times almost striking the cruiser. The operator of the GMC failed to stop and continued to travel Southbound on I-95 at a high rate of speed. To avoid a potential risk to the public and involved parties, the Trooper deactivated their cruiser’s emergency lights and siren and disengaged from the vehicle.”
The truck was eventually located and stopped in New York state and two men were arrested. In a single incident, more than 100 vehicles broke multiple traffic laws repeatedly throughout numerous towns, and zero tickets were issued. None of this will ever be reflected in any statistics.
While we’re still throwing statistics around, here is another interesting one that may help explain why it is reported that violent crime is down. This stat courtesy of the Connecticut Office of Policy Management (OPM). “Nationally, crime continues to be under-reported, with only an estimated two in five (42%) violent victimizations reported to police in 2022.”
And if crime in Connecticut really is down, why does OPM report: “6% more criminal cases were added to the Geographical Area (GA) courts in 2023 compared to FY2022.”
I conducted an internet search of murder in Hartford. Here is what came up on the first page of my search: “Top stories of 2021: Hartford Has Deadliest Year Since 2003” (Hartford Courant); “At 35 Killings, Hartford 2022 Homicide Total Most in 19 Years” (CT Insider); Hartford Grapples with City’s 8th Homicide in 10 Days” (CT Insider, 2023). Do those headlines reflect a downward shift in violent crime?
And if you think you are safer because you are lucky enough not to call Hartford home, this just happened to a 22-year-old kidnap victim in the shoreline community of Branford in September, according to Fox 61 News:
“The victim’s hair was lit on fire, his back was sliced with a knife, and he was shot several times with a BB gun, all over the course of three hours, according to police. There is also evidence that he was sexually assaulted, police said. When officers interviewed the victim at Yale New Haven Hospital, they said his eyes were swollen shut, his front teeth were missing, and he was being treated for lung damage.”
Fortunately, three people were arrested for this heinous brutality, one adult (from Hartford) and two juveniles.
Call me a skeptic, but it will take more than cherry-picking numbers from flawed statistics and conflicting data to convince me crime is down. Seeing is believing, and everything I watch on the news or read online tells me crime — in Connecticut and nationally — is on the rise.
(Note: I wrote this article on September 30; the FBI corrected their statistics on October 16, showing that violent crime has actually increased — not decreased — as it previously reported.)
Greg Dillon was a 30-year career law enforcement officer who lives in Connecticut and is the author of The Thin Blue Lie: An Honest Cop vs. The FBI.
Connecticut
The Great Westport Sandwich Contest kicks off with event at Old Mill Grocery
The Westport Weston Chamber of Commerce held a kick-off event at Old Mill Grocery on Monday for The Great Westport Sandwich Contest.
The contest runs throughout March with 21 restaurants, delis and markets competing in 10 categories to be crowned the best sandwich maker.
Residents can vote in the following categories: Best chicken, best steak, best vegetarian, best combo, best club, best NY deli, best pressed sandwich, best breakfast sandwich, best wrap, and best fish/seafood sandwich.
After people sample sandwiches, they can vote for their favorites in each category on the chamber’s website. They will also be placed into a drawing to win a free sandwich from one of the 10 winners.
“Of course, the goal is to have people come to Westport and check out restaurants, our markets and our delis. This is a great promotion. I mean it is a competition, but mostly it’s to bring people to the restaurants. It also gives a great community activity because they are the ones who get to vote who makes the best one,” says Matthew Mandell, the chamber’s executive director.
Winners will be announced in April and receive a plaque.
The chamber has held similar contests to determine what establishment has the best pizza, burger, soup and salad.
Connecticut
Lawmakers again push to restore Shore Line East service to 2019 levels
Connecticut lawmakers are again looking to restore Shore Line East rail service to its pre‑pandemic levels, a proposal that could add about 90 more trains per week.
Lawmakers are also weighing a separate cost‑saving proposal to shift the line from electric rail cars back to diesel.
The plan comes as ridership remains well below 2019 numbers, though state data shows those numbers have begun to climb.
The Department of Transportation provided the General Assembly’s transportation committee with the following data:
- 132 trains per week today versus 222 trains per week in 2019, according to the CTDOT commissioner.
- In 2019, most weekday SLE trains traveled between New Haven Union Station and Old Saybrook. This allowed SLE to operate with only five train sets in the morning and four train sets in the afternoon.
- It should be noted that 2019 SLE service levels were very different due to constrained infrastructure; 2019 service levels had a reduced number of SLE trains serving New London (13 trains per day Monday through Friday, as opposed to 20 today), while other stations had increased service (36 trains per day Monday through Friday, as opposed to 20 today).
“2019 levels beyond Old Saybrook to New London would require more crews and more train sets than were used in 2019, requiring significantly more financial resources,” the department wrote in its written testimony.
The department said the governor’s FY2027 budget does not include funding for a full restoration. In other words, even if the legislature requires additional trains, the funds are not included in the current financial plan.
Governor Lamont said on Monday to remember that the state subsidizes the line more than any other rail right now.
“There’s not as much demand as there are for some of the other rail services in other parts of the state, so that’s the balance we’re trying to get right,” Lamont said.
At a public hearing on Monday, concerns about the line’s reliability and schedule were a central focus in the testimony.
“We’re making the line less attractive, some would say. The schedules are very, very difficult to manage,” said Sen. Christine Cohen of Guilford, the co-chair of the committee.
The current schedule for eastbound morning commuters is difficult. The train either arrives in New London just after 7 a.m. or after 9 a.m.
“So obviously not really … conducive to a typical workday,” Cohen said.
Cohen, who represents communities along the line, said she continues to reintroduce the bill to expand service year after year, pushing the state to do more with the line.
She thanked the department for the work it was able to do with the recent funding to establish a through train to Stamford.
“What do we need to do, and what are the challenges that you face in terms of expansion at this time?” Cohen asked.
Commissioner Garrett Eucalitto responded that the biggest hurdle is the cost of labor and access fees to Amtrak, which owns the territory.
“The cost to provide rail service is very expensive,” Eucalitto said.
He said CTDOT knows the current schedule is “not ideal,” but the economics of a work-from-home society are difficult.
“People expect 100% of the trains that they had in 2019, but they only want to take it two days a week,” Eucalitto said.
Asked about the eastbound schedule, the commissioner explained Shore Line East still operates on a model that sends trains toward New Haven in the morning rather than toward New London.
Changing that would require more equipment, more crews, and a second morning operations base, as well as negotiations with Amtrak, which owns the tracks.
Amtrak is “protecting their slots to be able to run increased Northeast Regional service as well as increased Acela service,” Eucallito said. “They’re going to look at us and question, ‘Well, how does that impact our need for Amtrak services?’ They’ll never give you an answer upfront, it’s always: ‘show us a proposal and then they’ll respond to it.’”
Cohen, who chairs the Transportation Committee, touted how a successful Shoreline East benefits the environment, development along the line, and reduces I-95 congestion.
“We need to start talking about how much money this costs us and think about all of the ancillary benefits,” Cohen said during the hearing.
Cohen said there is multi-state support for extending the line into Rhode Island.
“We will need some federal dollars. But as you say, there are other businesses up the line in New London,” Cohen said. “We’ve got Electric Boat. We’ve got Pfizer up that way. If we can get those employees on the transit line, we’re all the better for it.”
Rider advocates said the issue is familiar.
“I’d rather see solutions, and not things that are holding it back,” said Susan Feaster, founder of the Shore Line East Riders’ Advocacy Group.
She said she worries the line is facing a transit death spiral, with reduced service leading to lower ridership and falling fare revenue.
“They have to give us the money,” Feaster said. “It shouldn’t have to be profitable.”
Like other train lines across the country, Shore Line East relies on subsidies.
“We’re not asking for everything to be done overnight, but just incrementally,” Feaster said.
The line received $5 million two years ago, which increased service levels.
The proposal comes as the state reviews whether to return to diesel rail cars that are more than 30 years old.
The state says the switch would save about $9 million, but riders have said it would worsen the passenger experience.
NBC Connecticut asked Cohen whether she’ll ask DOT to reverse that proposal.
“I really want to,” Cohen said. “I appreciate what CTDOT was trying to do in terms of not cutting service as a result of trying to find savings elsewhere. This isn’t the way to do it.”
Connecticut
Iranian Yale scholar in Connecticut celebrates fall of regime, calls for free elections
HARTFORD, Conn. (WFSB) – Thousands of Connecticut families with ties to Iran are watching and waiting as their home country undergoes a historic change.
Among them is Ramin Ahmadi, a Yale doctor, human rights activist and founder of the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center. He has spent decades advocating for freedom in Iran from his home in Connecticut.
Ahmadi moved to the United States when he was 18. On Saturday morning, he learned of military strikes in Iran and the death of the country’s supreme leader.
Ahmadi said protests for democracy and human rights in Iran intensified in December, drawing millions of participants — including his own family and friends.
“The situation in Iran was a humanitarian emergency and it needed an intervention,” Ahmadi said.
He said he celebrated when he heard the news Saturday morning.
“I was celebrating along with all other Iranians inside and outside the country,” Ahmadi said. “I do regret that we cannot bring him to a trial for crimes that he has committed against humanity.”
Ahmadi said he spoke with his sister in Iran after she celebrated in the streets. She was later told to return home for her safety.
He shared a message she relayed from those around her.
“They said do not let our death be exploited because worse than that is having to live with the criminals who have done this to us for the rest of our lives,” Ahmadi said. “We do not want to do that.”
For those questioning whether the conflict was America’s to engage in, Ahmadi offered a direct response.
“We will all be affected,” he said. “And to those that tell you that the U.S. and Israel are beating the drums of war in Iran, one has to remind them that it was not like before this Iranian people were listening to Beethoven’s Symphony No. 9 in D minor. We had a war already declared on us by this regime. We were being slaughtered on a daily basis.”
Ahmadi said he believes the path forward begins with young military officers forcing out what remains of the regime, followed by free elections.
“Everyone’s life will be safer in the future and not just Iranians,” Ahmadi said.
Connecticut lawmakers are also responding to the U.S. strikes on Iran.
Copyright 2026 WFSB. All rights reserved.
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