Connecticut
Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 7-4-2024
A matchup between two of the top teams in the WNBA takes place on Independence Day when the Connecticut Sun (15-4, 2nd East) take on the Minnesota Lynx (14-5, 1st West). The Sun are coming off an 11-point road win over the Mercury, and the Lynx just lost by nine on the road against the Liberty. These teams met once this season already, with the Sun winning by one at home in overtime. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00 EST from the Target Center in Minneapolis, and can be found on Amazon Prime Video.
Let’s get into your favorite WNBA picks for tonight’s matchup between Connecticut and Minnesota.
Two Team Race in the East
The Eastern Conference of the WNBA has divided itself into two groups, there’s the Liberty and the Sun, and then there is everybody else. Connecticut is now 1.5-games behind New York for the top spot, but have a full 7.5-game lead over the third place team. They are second in the overall league standings, just a game ahead of Minnesota, highlighting the importance of this game. In their last outing, the Sun beat the Mercury behind 18 points from Brionna Jones.
Jones is a 6’3 forward who is one of five members of the Sun who averages double figures. She is scoring 13.2 PPG while adding 4.9 RPG on the inside. Their top scorer is DeWanna Bonner with 16.2 PPG, she is a 6’4 forward who adds another 6.1 RPG. Bonner can knock down the three, but the top shooter on the team is Tyasha Harris who makes 1.7 threes per game. Harris is a 5’10 guard averaging 11.3 PPG. The key to their team is Alyssa Thomas, she excels everywhere on the floor as the 6’2 forward leads the team with 9.5 RPG, 7.5 APG and 1.6 steals per game, while adding another 12.1 PPG.
The Sun rank 7th out of the 12 teams in the league in scoring by averaging 79.9 PPG, but they have the top defensive unit in the league by only allowing 73.1 PPG. The Sun play at a slow pace, and like to utilize their size on the inside to find shots, rather than launch quickly from deep. The Sun only shoot 17.1 threes per game, this ranks 11th in the league.
Top of the West
The Minnesota Lynx have the best record in the Western Conference, but their lead is narrowing. They are only one game ahead of the Seattle Storm in the standings, as Minnesota has now lost two of their last three games. Minnesota still sits in third in the overall league standings. The Lynx dropped their last game as they took on the top overall seed, the New York Liberty. In that game, Minnesota got 15 points and 10 rebounds from Napheesa Collier, but it was not enough to pull out the win.
Collier is a 6’1 forward putting up strong numbers this season, she leads the team with 20.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG and 2.2 steals per game. Collier has had a double-double in his last three games, including a huge 29-point, 11-rebound game in a loss to Dallas. Kayla McBride is the second scorer on the team, the 5’11 guard is getting 15.8 PPG and 3.7 APG. McBride is the top outside shooter on the team, making 3.1 threes per game on 43.3% shooting from deep. Alanna Smith is the only other Minnesota player averaging double figures, the 6’4 forward is averaging 11.9 PPG and 5.0 RPG.
Minnesota is fourth in the league in scoring at 83.0 PPG, and their defense ranks second by allowing just 74.4 PPG. The Lynx make 9.7 threes per game as a team, this is the third-best mark in the WNBA, and they have the best overall shooting percentage from the outside as they make 38.6% of their threes.
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Best Bets for Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx
Full-Game Side Bet
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The Lynx need to live and die by the three-pointer far more than Connecticut does, as the Sun’s style of play is more reliable on a day-to-day basis. Connecticut plays a slow game and pounds the ball inside to their several forwards who can all score around the rim, or grab offensive rebounds for second-chance putbacks. Connecticut has been consistent all season, they have had the same starting lineup for all 19 games, and each starter is averaging double figures. They share the ball well, while dominating the paint, and that type of play travels well. Minnesota lost the first game against Connecticut and only shot 4-21 from deep as the Sun’s defense was able to extend their defense and close out on shooters. The same will happen here as Connecticut is the best defensive team in the league and will keep this close enough to cover or win.
Take Connecticut with the points.
Prediction: Sun +2.5
Full-Game Total Pick
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These are the top two defenses in the WNBA in terms of points allowed per game. Connecticut plays at a slow pace by choice, as their lineup is littered with forwards who can score around the rim including Bonner, Thomas, and Jones. The Sun will not change their strategy, as their advantage in this game is in the post. The Lynx like to shoot from the outside, but they shot 19% from three the last time they played Connecticut. These two teams are also the best defenses in the league guarding the three point shot. Opponents only shoot 27.9% from deep when playing against Minnesota, and 29.3% against Connecticut. These teams will grind it out on the defensive end, as Connecticut takes their time offensively, leading to an under.
Take the under.
Prediction: Under