AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Connecticut's state primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Connecticut Republicans will pick nominees in state primaries on Tuesday to challenge two longtime Democratic lawmakers, U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy and U.S. Rep. Jim Himes.

The leading GOP hopefuls for each seat won the party’s endorsement at state and district conventions but not by large enough margins to win the nominations outright.

In the U.S. Senate primary, Gerry Smith and Matt Corey will compete for the Republican nomination. Smith serves as first selectman for the town of Beacon Falls and is also an insurance agent and former small business owner. Corey is a bar owner and Navy veteran. He was the Republican nominee against Murphy in 2018 and also challenged Democratic U.S. Rep. John Larson in the 1st Congressional District in 2012, 2014 and 2016. In 2020, he was the Republican nominee for a state Senate seat. Smith received a majority of votes from delegates to the state convention in May, but Corey surpassed the 15% vote threshold required to force a primary. Democrats unanimously nominated Murphy at their state convention, avoiding the need for a primary.

In the 4th Congressional District, Republicans Bob MacGuffie and Michael Goldstein each hope to unseat eight-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Jim Himes. MacGuffie is a former insurance executive and tea party activist from the years of Barack Obama’s presidency. He received the party’s endorsement at the district convention in May by a narrow margin against Goldstein, an attorney and physician who ran unsuccessfully for the 4th District nomination in 2020 and 2022.

Neither seat is a top target for national Republicans hoping to win control of the Senate or maintain control of the House in November. Murphy won reelection in 2018 with 60% of the vote, while President Joe Biden carried the state in 2020 with 59%. Himes received 59% of the vote in his 2022 reelection bid, while district voters preferred Biden by almost two-to-one over Republican Donald Trump in 2020.

Connecticut voters will also decide a handful of state legislative races. Democrats have contested primaries in four state Senate districts and 11 state House districts, while Republicans will face off in one district in each chamber. All state legislative seats are up for election in 2024, although most are not holding primaries.

Elections in Connecticut are run at the town level instead of the county level. All 169 towns will hold Republican primaries because of the contested U.S. Senate race. With Murphy already renominated for his statewide seat, much of the state won’t have Democratic primaries.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Primary day

The Connecticut state primaries will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state Senate and state House.

Who gets to vote

Only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

Decision notes

The largest towns in Connecticut are Bridgeport, Stamford, New Haven, Hartford and Waterbury, each with populations exceeding 100,000. Bridgeport and Stamford are in the 4th Congressional District in southwestern Connecticut.

Corey’s and Goldstein’s previous campaigns offer some points of comparison for Tuesday’s contests. In the 2018 U.S. Senate Republican primary, Corey won the nomination with 77% of the vote, carrying all 169 towns along the way. He had 50-point margins or larger in 137 of the state’s 169 towns. In Goldstein’s previous run in the 4th District in 2022, he lost the districtwide vote with 40% of the vote. He carried only Easton, Greenwich and Oxford by narrow margins and lost the district’s 14 other towns, most notably Bridgeport and Stamford.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Connecticut are automatic if the vote if the vote margin less than 0.5% of the total votes cast, but not exceeding 2,000 votes. Recounts are also automatic in races where the margin is less than 20 votes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of October 2023, there were nearly 2.5 million registered voters in Connecticut. Of those, 36% were Democrats, 20% were Republicans and 42% were independent or unaffiliated.

In the 2022 midterms, turnout was 4% of registered voters in the Republican primary. There was no statewide Democratic contest in that election. Turnout in the 2018 Democratic primary was about 9% of registered voters.

In 2023, Connecticut adopted an early voting law that was first implemented in April’s presidential primaries. In those contests, 26% of Democratic primary voters and 17% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots before election day. By comparison, about 5% of Republican primary voters in the 2022 midterms and 6% of Democratic primary voters in 2018 cast their ballots before election day.

As of Wednesday, more than 6,100 ballots had been cast before primary day, about 54% in the Democratic primary and about 46% in the Republican primary.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 12:52 a.m. ET with more than 99% of total votes counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 84 days until the November general election.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.