Why a Juan Soto trade makes sense for the Red Sox — and why it doesn’t

NEW YORK — One among baseball’s preeminent superstars is now obtainable on the buying and selling block. As first reported by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Nationals are anticipated to entertain affords for star outfielder Juan Soto after he declined a 15-year, $440 million extension provide from the membership.

The Crimson Sox, as a workforce with one of many highest payrolls in baseball, is likely to be in play for Soto. A thinkpiece in The Athletic on Saturday famous that the Sox, as a workforce “in or close to a rivalry window – and with the suitable assets” must be in play for the two-time All-Star. However will they be? To make use of the worst adage ever and insult each Journalism 101 professor who has ever taught, solely time will inform.

However there’s instances to be made on either side of the talk.

WHY A SOTO TRADE MAKES SENSE

The Crimson Sox, who’ve a payroll round $212 million this season, are one of many few groups who can afford to make a run at signing somebody like Soto, together with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers and a small group of others. So subsequently, Boston is at all times within the combine when a high-paid participant turns into obtainable, even when Chaim Bloom hasn’t given out only one free-agent deal price greater than $14 million (Trevor Story’s $140 million deal) since taking up in Oct. 2019. Boston additionally might be a gorgeous commerce accomplice for Washington due to its much-improved farm system that’s extensively thought of one of many high 10 in baseball. The Sox have strong prospects who’re each main league prepared or shut (Brayan Bello, Triston Casas, Josh Winckowski and others) and blue-chippers within the decrease ranges of the minors (Marcelo Mayer, Nick Yorke, Miguel Bleis, and many others.)

The Sox have the cash to get an extension performed with a participant like Soto, who is ready to hit free company after 2024. And so they probably have the items — and it’ll take a lot of these items — to finish a commerce. A pursuit makes rather more sense if the Crimson Sox are planning on a future with out Xander Bogaerts, who is anticipated to decide out of his contract this winter, and Rafael Devers, who’s a free agent after 2023. It’s unsure that Boston shall be keen carry so many highly-paid gamers — together with no less than two making greater than $30-35 million per 12 months — on their roster. If Bogaerts and Devers go elsewhere, then Soto could possibly be Boston’s subsequent famous person. And keep in mind, the aggressive stability tax threshold is about to extend considerably, giving groups extra room to spend with out incurring penalties.

One different motive why a transfer for Soto would possibly make sense? Boston’s future within the outfield is sort of murky. Whereas the membership has loads of high-value infield prospects like Mayer, Casas and Yorke, thinks are much less spectacular on the subject of outfielders. Bleis is a middle fielder however is simply 18 and in rookie ball and Ceddanne Rafaela, the membership’s quickest riser this season, can play just a few completely different spots and could possibly be given an outfield spot. However past Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran — two gamers with loads of query marks themselves — it’s not just like the Crimson Sox have any plug-and-play choices for the subsequent two or three years within the outfield. Including Soto would remedy a kind of three spots in a heartbeat.

WHY IT DOESN’T

The argument towards a Soto transfer is fairly easy. If the Crimson Sox are going to spend lots of of tens of millions on a famous person or a number of stars, they could as properly do it with the gamers they know finest. It’s laborious to ascertain a world during which Boston lets a homegrown man like Devers stroll simply handy a clean examine to Soto. It’s additionally considerably laborious to ascertain the 2 of them in the identical lineup, contemplating the price. However the brand new CBT guidelines will change issues.

Additionally, a Soto mega-deal — which might probably require parting with a degree of prospect price that we’ve by no means seen earlier than — simply goes towards Bloom’s nature. He’s not as a lot of a prospect hoarder as many make him out to be and sure will strike in the suitable state of affairs, however the thought of giving up 4, 5 or 6 blue-chip gamers for one man — nearly as good as Soto is — simply doesn’t match his M.O. For a regime that prioritizes depth and fixed long-term constructing, locking so many assets (each financially and player-wise) into one participant simply doesn’t appear probably. Now, there’s at all times the chance that Bloom might look to make a serious strike as time goes on, particularly if the Crimson Sox stay in purgatory and his job safety turns into tenuous. However so long as he’s doing issues the way in which he’s recognized to do them, one of many greatest buys in baseball historical past doesn’t seem to be one thing he’d be excited to do.

The Crimson Sox might merely signal Devers and preserve all the prospects it will take to get Soto. Or they may wait till Soto hits free company after 2024 (assuming another person doesn’t commerce for him and lengthen him) and attempt to signal him then.

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