Two Things People Are Getting Wrong About Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Fit In Boston

While the veracity of the rumors involving Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Boston Celtics continue to be debated, there are a couple of very important people are missing about all of this should this trade come to pass. 

Boston’s style of play will not change, and simply swapping Jaylen Brown for Antetokounmpo doesn’t change the trajectory of the team so significantly that Brad Stevens’ work will be done. 

For some reason, there is a school of thought that acquiring Antetokounmpo, a noted non-shooter, would materially change Boston’s offensive strategy. It won’t. It doesn’t mean things won’t be a little different, but this notion that Antetokounmpo will force Mazzulla to scrap his approach and try something new is false. 

The Bucks have routinely been in the top five in three-point attempts beginning in the 2018-19 season, Antetokounmpo’s first MVP run. Beginning in that season, they have ranked second, fourth, eighth, fifth, fourth, fifth, 18th, and 10th. The last two seasons when they dropped out of the top were coached by Doc Rivers. 

According to PBPStats.com, Antetokounmpo has assisted on more three-pointers than two-pointers in each of the past two seasons, with a low of 209 three created in in the 2023 season, and a high of 290 created the following year. Over his career, he has assisted on 2,325 three-pointers. That’s almost as many as Jaylen Brown and Derrick White have made combined (2,437) over their entire careers. 

It should be no surprise that Antetokounmpo is a three-point generating machine. His drives are massively effective, and they generally require a lot of defensive help. That opens up passing lanes to shooters, which Antetokounmpo finds regularly. 

If anything, we could see Boston’s three-point volume go up. Brown’s closest season generating that kind of three-point volume was this past season when he created 196 over 71 games. By contrast, Antetokounmpo created 135 over 36 games. So anyone pushing for the Antetokounmpo trade thinking it will force Mazzulla’s hand to change strategies is sorely mistaken. “Mazzulla-ball” will probably take off under these circumstances. 

Which brings us to the work Stevens will have to do once they theoretically acquire Antetokounmpo. 

Giannis flirted with some volume three-point shooting a few years ago, averaging 4.7 attempts in 2020, his second MVP season, and 3.6 in each of the next two, but he’s a career 28.5% shooter from deep who peaked at 34.7% in his rookie season. Mazzulla is willing to go with one non-shooter on the floor, but generally not two. 

So where does that leave Neemias Queta? 

How would the Celtics build an offense with Queta, a non-shooter, and Antetokounmpo on the floor at the same time? The drives that Antetokounmpo is known for would be clogged with defenders who already know to build a wall to prevent him from getting to the rim. What worked in Milwaukee was playing Brook Lopez at center and having him stretch the floor. Boston doesn’t have that element right now. The closest thing they had to that, Nikola Vucevic, never got his footing in his short stint in Boston and seems to be done here. 

A straight swap of Antetokounmpo and Brown will obviously upgrade a top 15 player to a top five player, but Brown led the NBA in two-point attempts per game last season with 16. At his peak, Antetokounmpo averaged 17 or 18 two-point attempts per game, but Brown’s three-point shooting does add an element of floor spacing that Antetokounmpo doesn’t. A straight swap of those two players creates a bit of a fit issue with the current starting center that would have to be addressed. 

This also doesn’t solve Boston’s need for a third scorer and some punch off the bench. Stevens will still have to use his mid-level exception to find that no matter which of the two stars is in Boston to start the season. 

We can debate whether Antetokounmpo or Brown make Boston more of a favorite next season, but that debate is leading people down some wrong paths. Giannis isn’t some cure for the three-point-heavy Celtics offense. In fact, it might be more appropriate to call him Gasoline Antetokounmpo for what he might do for the shooting volume. And any notion that everything is fixed with Antetokounmpo in the fold is wrong. Stevens will have to solve some fit issues and still address needs that exist today.