Patriots outlook: NFL sources expecting franchise to finish in middle of the pack

Coming off the third-worst season of Bill Belichick’s 23-year tenure as head coach, the Patriots did surprisingly little this offseason to significantly upgrade their roster.

That might not matter as Belichick and the team try to improve upon last season’s 8-9 finish because the team’s biggest weakness wasn’t so much in personnel as it was coaching. With Matt Patricia and Joe Judge leading the offense, the system was predictable and simplistic.

Quarterback Mac Jones — coached by Judge and running plays called by Patricia — saw a dramatic decline from his rookie season (when offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was still on board in 2021) in nearly every statistical category. Patricia’s offensive line gave up a higher pressure rate despite quarterbacks attempting a lower average depth of target than in 2021.

Belichick attempted to fix the matter by hiring former Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to re-fill his old post. There have been positive returns this summer, but training camp and preseason can only reveal so much. And the last time the Patriots struggled to this degree came in 2020 with Cam Newton at quarterback. The next offseason, they drafted Jones, gave a record $163 million in guaranteed money to free agents and made the playoffs. Belichick brought back most of last year’s squad and made relatively minor replacements on the roster this spring.

Sources the Herald spoke to around the NFL aren’t overly optimistic about the Patriots’ chances this season, but most polled believe they’ll top the 7.5 projected win total set by oddsmakers.

“Middle of the road would be my gut feeling there,” an AFC scout said. “I’d predict they’ll finish 9-8, give or take.”

That might not be enough to sneak into the postseason in a loaded conference and division. There are 11 teams in the AFC with a higher projected win total than the Patriots, and the three other teams in the AFC East have a projected win total of 9.5 or higher.

On paper, the Patriots should be as good as or

better than they performed in 2022. O’Brien and offensive line coach Adrian Klemm have replaced Patricia and Judge, and Jones has a higher-upside arsenal of playmakers with JuJu Smith-Schuster replacing Jakobi Meyers, Mike Gesicki taking over for Jonnu Smith and Ezekiel Elliott in place of Damien Harris.

Plus, rookie wide receivers Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte look like potential impact players. The offense’s biggest weakness is still its offensive line. Guards Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu were injured all summer, and it’s anyone’s guess who will be starting at right tackle in Week 1. But they’re set to be better coached in 2023.

Defensively, the only significant loss is retired free safety Devin McCourty, and it’s a big one by way of leadership, communication and range. But the Patriots believe that a free safety-by-committee approach using Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers and Jalen Mills (among others) will confuse quarterbacks. The team also added three intriguing defenders through the draft in cornerback Christian Gonzalez, defensive end Keion White and linebacker/safety Marte Mapu. Gonzalez will be a Day 1 starter. White looked primed for a big role this summer, and Mapu is a bit of a mystery after spending most of training camp in a red non-contact jersey, but he might also be a starter in Week 1.

But the Patriots also will face the NFL’s toughest strength of schedule based on projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers in 2023 with non-divisional matchup against the Eagles, Cowboys, Chiefs and Chargers.

“I think they’ve got enough balance to sneak into the playoffs but I don’t see them making a real run at it,” an NFC scout said.

In order to make the playoffs, the Patriots will need to finish better than five of the 11 teams with higher projected win totals: the Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens, Jets, Chargers, Dolphins, Browns, Steelers and Broncos. There are certainly some flawed teams in that mix, but the Patriots are not without their own blemishes.

The team’s success will be largely dependent on how well Jones can bounce back from his 2022 dropoff and jell with O’Brien.

Jones had no problem beating out backup quarterback Bailey Zappe this summer. Teammates have expressed the utmost belief in Jones this entire summer.

“Oh, very confident,” wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster said on Jones on Monday. “Super, super high confidence with everything we did this offseason and finally to put it in an actual game and go out there and show the world what we can do.”

Still, there are people around the NFL who are skeptical of Jones’ ability.

“Middle of the road,” an AFC assistant general manager said of his expectations of the Patriots. “A lot of way more talented teams ahead of them, and their QB play is going to be an issue.”

That same talent evaluator said he believes Jones has physical limitations that no coach can hide and that teams figured the Alabama product out. That is certainly possible. Jones’ struggles last season seemed to go beyond coaching, a somewhat poor supporting cast and a high ankle sprain. He was one of the NFL’s worst quarterbacks under pressure last season, and his turnover-worthy play rate rose from 2021.

He also had a tough stretch in the second half of his rookie season, so last year’s struggles weren’t a complete aberration.

“I think they’ll be competitive but ultimately miss the playoffs,” an AFC analytics analyst said. “They’re very thin at receiver, and I worry about how they’re gonna generate explosive plays through the air without (Tyquan) Thornton and his speed.”

Thornton, the Patriots’ 2022 second-round pick, will miss the first four weeks of the season on injured reserve. He was falling down the depth chart even before his mid-August injury, but the point still stands that he’s the only true speed threat in the offense. The Patriots are one injury away — and DeVante Parker is already limited in practice — from a rookie sixth-round pick seeing considerable snaps at wide receiver.

Parker was a big-play threat in 2022 and this summer, but most of those chunk gains came on down field contested catches, not long catch and runs. Out of the 14 receivers last season who averaged 15.4 yards per reception or more, Parker was 10th with just 3.4 yards after catch per reception.

“I think the defense will be very good for another season, and I think Gonzalez gives Belichick a prototypical CB1 for him to build the plane around,” the analytics analyst continued. “(Josh) Uche in a contract year should be motivated and put as good of a season as last year rushing the passer. Really excited to see what Belichick does with all the safeties on the roster, and if he gives a lot of big nickel or dime looks to get them all on the field.”

Gonzalez ran hot and cold at times this summer, but he’s a projected starter at cornerback — along with Jonathan Jones and Jack Jones — with all of the tools to be one of the top players at his position. At 6-foot-1, 205 pounds with a 4.38-second timed 40-yard dash, Gonzalez has prototypical size and speed for the position. But he only recently turned 21 years old, and the Patriots are set to go against some of the NFL’s premier wide receivers in Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Terry McLaurin, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Kadarius Toney, Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton. It won’t be perfect.

Uche ranked first last season in PFF’s pass-rushing productivity metric with 55 pressures on just 266 pass-rush snaps. He’s an undersized player who won’t contribute much as a run defender, but he can certainly pin his ears back and get after the quarterback. White only makes the Patriots’ pass-rush package more dangerous to go along with Uche, Matthew Judon, Deatrich Wise and Christian Barmore.

And it certainly seems to be the plan to flood the field with Dugger, Phillips, Peppers and Mills. And Mapu, who warms up with defensive backs but splits his time on the field between linebacker and safety, can be added into that mix. It’s difficult to remember a rookie garnering so many gushing comments from veteran teammates than the Sacramento State product.

“They’re in a weird spot,” an NFC analytics analyst said. “It’s the toughest division in football, and they’ve got a brutal opening stretch, but they’ve got the defensive talent to go .500 on either side of the bye. A few close wins would likely push them into the playoffs. They’re going to have to start drafting better to avoid falling into mediocrity, though.”

The Patriots’ drafting woes appeared to be behind them after selecting impact makers like Dugger, Uche, Onwenu, Mac Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson in 2020 and 2021. But the team traded running back Pierre Strong and cut quarterback Bailey Zappe this offseason. Both were fourth-round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. They cut three more players from the 10-man draft class and placed Thornton on injured reserve.

The Patriots’ 2023 draft class has impressed, however, and the team hasn’t parted ways with any of the 12 players selected. All but seventh-round pick Isaiah Bolden, who’s on IR with a concussion, made the 53-man roster. Kicker Chad Ryland and punter Bryce Baringer beat out veteran competition this summer. Fifth-round pick Atonio Mafi is the team’s top backup guard, and fourth-round pick Sidy Sow spent part of the summer as the team’s starting right tackle. That could continue into Week 1.

Teams around the NFL feared the Patriots not too long ago. But it’s been three mostly middling seasons since Tom Brady left in 2019. There is still confidence around the NFL for Belichick to pull things together this season. But expectations are set for somewhere around a .500 finish.