Patience over panic: Kristaps Porzingis and the Celtics struggles

The Celtics aren’t playing great basketball. Coincidence or not, this stretch has coincided with the return and reintegration of Kristaps Porzingis. In 23 games without the big man, Boston has a record of 19-4—with him in the lineup, that falls to a much less flattering 9-7 record.

This has put his value on trial, and opened the door to discussions about whether a move to the bench could be helpful for everyone involved. It’s not a crazy idea by any means, but it’s shortsighted and an oversimplification of why the team has struggled of late.

While Kristaps attempts to slide back into his role, there’s an adjustment period that the team naturally has to go through. That’s roughly 13 shots per game being taken from the collective and handed to one individual. It’s a shift that can impact that entire rotation, but it’s also not unfamiliar to the team—by now, they’re used to the cycle of Porzingis’ absence and return.

KP hasn’t been the same game-breaking player that we’ve come to know, but he’s not that far off. He isn’t hunting shots outside of the flow of the offense, and the coaching staff isn’t force-feeding him either.

This table shows a comparison in the volume and efficiency of Kristaps’ most used play types from the past two seasons. Across the board, the possessions per game have remained very similar, while the efficiency has taken a step back.

He’s shooting below the standard he established for himself during the championship run, but the accuracy should come around as he gets more comfortable and confident in his movements post-injury. Porzingis opened up about this after a win over the Nuggets, sharing his progress.

“80-85%. I still have a little bit to go.” Porzingis said. “I know that moment is coming when everything will start clicking, and I’ll play really high-level basketball.”

In theory, sending KP to the bench would allow him to face easier matchups and build his conditioning back up. On a similar note, he and the starters have a troubling -8.9 net rating. With that said, abandoning this unit so quickly is an overreaction and works against the purpose of the regular season.

It may require patience, but we’re talking about a starting lineup that had a +17.3 net rating over seven playoff games together. Long term, it’s more valuable to let them figure it out, rather than opt for a temporary fix.

It can’t be ignored that the Celtics are also getting hit by a wrecking ball of poor shooting luck in his minutes. Opponents are hitting 33.78% of their three-pointers with him on the bench, compared to a ridiculously efficient 41.78% when he’s on the court. To make matters worse, Boston is converting 37.21% of their own 3’s without KP, and just 32.95% with him.

Overall, there’s a -8.83% differential between team and opponent 3PT efficiency with Porzingis in the game. This is simply unsustainable, and it’s due for positive regression eventually.

Despite his individual offensive struggles, Porzingis has been elite as a rim protector. Among 255 players who have defended at least 75 shots within 6 feet of the basket, he has the best defensive field goal percentage in the NBA at 41.2%. Players are shooting 20.9% worse than expected when facing Kristaps at the rim.

Boston is intentional about which shooters they’re willing to leave open and when to funnel drives toward Porzingis. Teams are often avoiding these drives, and accepting open looks from mediocre shooters—recently, with great success. Both of these factors play into the stark difference in opponent 3PT%.

The numbers paint a disappointing picture, but from a glass-half-full perspective, there’s plenty of room for positive regression. Last season, the starting lineup shot 39.31% from beyond the arc and limited opponents to 36.75%. This year, they’ve struggled, shooting just 27.61% themselves, while opponents are converting at an absurd 46.55%.

Ultimately, the Celtics’ struggles seem more like a temporary blip, fueled by frustrating shooting luck and a slow return to form for Kristaps, rather than a reason to panic. The core of this team has already proven their ability to perform together at a high level, and sticking with the current configuration gives them the best chance to break out of the slump.

Allowing Porzingis to round into shape and cranking up the defensive intensity should help offset some of the shooting woes. As Porzingis eloquently put it, “with this kind of talent in this locker room, it’s impossible that we don’t start playing better basketball.” When water finds its level, the game will start to look easy again.