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NBA picks, best bets for Celtics-Heat: Why a Boston bounce back should be expected in Game 4

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With the 2021-22 NBA common season now within the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports activities can be offering each day picks during the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at the least one decide for each sport between now and the NBA Finals. All traces courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Featured Sport | Boston Celtics vs. Miami Warmth

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The Celtics have misplaced 4 video games this postseason. They gained the 4 video games that adopted these 4 losses by a mixed 69 factors. They have not misplaced consecutive video games that Jayson Tatum performed in since January. Boston’s resilience has been confirmed time and time once more this postseason. This unfold makes me a bit nervous contemplating how little we all know concerning the well being on either side, however we have simply seen the Celtics escape deficits too many instances this postseason to doubt them anymore. Miami, then again, hasn’t all the time had the simplest time placing opponents away. Philadelphia managed to tie their second-round sequence at two video games apiece after falling down 2-0. Even the Hawks had a little bit of struggle in them later within the first spherical, although Miami was coping with a number of accidents. Even for those who suppose the Warmth are going to win this sequence, you need to most likely count on them to take action with their two remaining dwelling video games. Given their desperation, Boston needs to be favored on this one. The decide: Celtics -6.5

The story from Sport 3 was all the factors Miami scored off of Boston’s turnovers, and sure, each a type of factors was wanted for the Warmth to win, however what has been drastically understated within the course of is how effectively these groups are scoring within the half court docket relative to our expectations. Miami’s half-court offense was a query mark all season, and Boston’s ball-handling limitations have been a problem all postseason. But the Warmth are scoring .98 factors per play within the half court docket towards Boston, and the Celtics have been even higher at 1.028. That Miami determine would’ve ranked fifth within the NBA in the course of the common season, and Boston could be first. There have been stretches of unsustainable taking pictures, however Miami is making simply 32 p.c of its 3’s within the sequence, and even after sinking 20 in Sport 2, Boston has hit solely round 40 p.c. It is beginning to really feel like these groups are simply going to have a better time offensively than we anticipated coming into this matchup. That may be due to accidents, however for now, offense is the play. The decide: Over 207.5

I’m so tempted to select Jimmy Butler below 25.5 factors simply contemplating his knee damage, however understanding him the ache is just going to make him extra highly effective. As an alternative, I am Jaylen Brown, whose seven turnovers sullied an in any other case masterful Sport 3 efficiency. The 40-point explosion most likely wasn’t sustainable, however Brown has taken between seven and 9 3’s in every of the three video games on this sequence. Given his misadventures as a ball-handler in Sport 3, I might think about Boston emphasizes his spot-up abilities in Sport 4. On the amount of 3-point pictures he is taken on this sequence, even an honest taking pictures sport ought to hit the over right here. The decide: Brown over 2.5 made 3’s.

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