NBA Finals first look: What to watch in Warriors vs. Celtics

After three rounds of upsets, thrillers, blowouts and all the pieces in between, the NBA Finals are right here — and it is a sequence that may pin some acquainted faces in opposition to a gaggle with zero expertise on the league’s greatest stage.

The Golden State Warriors, led by three-time champions Stephen Curry, Draymond Inexperienced and Klay Thompson, are making their sixth Finals look up to now eight seasons. The Boston Celtics, in the meantime, are right here for the primary time since 2010.

Regardless of the offensive strengths of every group, this sequence might be a defensive clinic on each side. That is the primary Finals to characteristic the highest two groups in defensive effectivity since 1996, when the Chicago Bulls defeated the Seattle SuperSonics.

Can Jayson Tatum proceed knocking off future Corridor of Famers within the playoffs? Will Curry lastly seize that elusive NBA Finals MVP award? What are the largest X elements for every group?

Our NBA insiders are breaking down the keys to what must be an exhilarating sequence.

Observe: Collection odds offered by ESPN’s Basketball Energy Index (BPI) and Caesars Sportsbook.

Collection odds and stats:

How they bought right here:

For the primary time since 2019 and the sixth time up to now eight seasons, the Warriors are again within the NBA Finals.

However in contrast to their dynastic run that spanned from 2014 to 2019, this journey to the Finals wasn’t a given. Simply two years in the past, the Warriors had the worst report within the NBA. Final 12 months, they missed the playoffs after shedding each play-in video games.

Klay Thompson missed the primary half of this season as he recovered from consecutive ACL and Achilles tendon accidents; he made his debut in January after a 941-day layoff. However on the day he returned, Draymond Inexperienced went down with a again damage. Inexperienced returned two months later, however only one recreation afterward, Stephen Curry strained a foot and missed the final month of the common season.

The emergence of Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney allowed the Warriors to stay within the prime three within the Western Convention. Within the playoffs, they had been key contributors in getting the Warriors again to the NBA’s grandest stage.

X issue: The well being of Gary Payton II

The Warriors have barely performed with a completely wholesome roster. Andre Iguodala has missed the whole thing of the postseason thus far. Otto Porter Jr. missed three video games. Gary Payton II has been out since early within the second spherical. However these gamers might be reintegrated into group observe this week, and every may very well be an necessary addition to the Warriors’ title hopes.

Particularly Payton.

He emerged this season as a lockdown defender. Early on, he discovered himself rotational minutes by defending opponents’ finest gamers, whether or not it was a wing participant or an enormous; he even tallied a number of blocks on the Denver Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic within the common season and playoffs. The best way Payton has improved his offense has garnered him extra minutes from Steve Kerr.

Payton’s efficiency earned him a beginning spot within the Western Convention semifinals earlier than his elbow was fractured on a controversial play with the Memphis Grizzlies’ Dillon Brooks.

Payton’s protection might be essential for the Warriors within the Finals. Whereas Golden State is understood for its offense, the Warriors repeatedly preach how their protection kick-starts their scoring. Payton’s presence contained in the paint additionally provides the Warriors extra choices when trying to go small.

Earlier than his damage, Payton was averaging 6.1 factors on 72.7% discipline objective capturing, 3.0 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 15.9 minutes per recreation through the playoffs.

Largest weak spot: Turnover troubles

Heading into the convention finals, Kerr joked that he wasn’t mentioning turnovers to his group as a result of it has been its problem for the previous eight years. He does not have to inform his gamers anymore that they should hold these down.

As soon as once more, turnovers have been the Achilles’ heel for the Warriors this postseason. Golden State is averaging 14.8 turnovers per recreation within the playoffs (fifth worst of the 16 postseason groups) for 15.9 factors. That does not sound too unhealthy at face worth, however if you break down the Warriors’ wins and losses thus far, it’s miles extra telling.

Within the Warriors’ 4 losses within the playoffs, they’re averaging 16.3 turnovers for 20.8 factors — the third-most turnovers for the fifth-most factors allowed within the postseason. In wins, they lower that quantity to 14.2 turnovers for 14.3 factors (prime 10 in each classes).

The Warriors know that with their type of play — fast-paced with a lot of ball motion — turnovers are certain to occur. Those they’re targeted on reducing down are those that come off sloppy or lazy passes.

If the Warriors lower down on their turnovers, they are going to be far harder to beat. And if they’re overwhelmed, it will not be as a result of they gave the ball to their opponent.

— Kendra Andrews

Collection odds and stats:

How they bought right here:

In maybe probably the most extremely anticipated first-round matchup, the second-seeded Celtics confronted the seventh-seeded Brooklyn Nets. Probably, the sequence had the chance to go seven video games, with Boston’s dynamic duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum going in opposition to Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. As a substitute, Boston made fast work of the Nets in a sweep.

Boston adopted that up with seven-game thrillers within the convention semifinals and convention finals. After falling behind 3-2 of their sequence in opposition to the Milwaukee Bucks, the Celtics answered with back-to-back double-digit victories to move into the convention finals with momentum.

In opposition to the top-seeded Miami Warmth, the Celtics fell behind 2-1, however surged again to take a 3-2 lead into Sport 6. Miami defeated the Celtics behind an epic efficiency by Jimmy Butler to ship it to a Sport 7 on South Seashore.

There, the Celtics delivered the ultimate blow, advancing to their twenty second NBA Finals in franchise historical past looking for their NBA-record 18th title.

X issue: Lastly, some relaxation

The largest key for the Celtics heading into the NBA Finals is likely to be their three days off between Sport 7 in opposition to the Warmth and Sport 1 of the Finals.

Boston has endured grueling back-to-back sequence in opposition to the Bucks and Warmth, taking part in each different day since Could 7, after getting three days off following Sport 2 in opposition to Milwaukee.

Marcus Good has handled a quad damage and a sprained ankle within the playoffs. Robert Williams III missed time in April with proper meniscus surgical procedure and has skilled knee soreness because of a bone bruise suffered after a collision with Giannis Antetokounmpo in Sport 3 vs. the Bucks.

Tatum has averaged over 41 minutes per recreation over the previous two sequence. Brown and Al Horford are each over 38 per recreation. All three logged at the least 44 minutes in Sport 7 in opposition to the Warmth.

Merely put, the Celtics may use a couple of days off.

Golden State, in the meantime, hasn’t needed to play in a Sport 7 this postseason and dispatched the Dallas Mavericks in 5 video games. The Warriors will find yourself with every week off between video games as soon as the Finals begin Thursday evening.

Largest weak spot: Are the lights too brilliant?

Boston’s collective postseason inexperience revealed itself down the stretch in a number of video games over the previous two rounds.

After going 4-0 in video games that included clutch time (outlined by the NBA as a span within the remaining 5 minutes or extra time wherein the lead is inside 5 factors) in opposition to the Brooklyn Nets, Boston went 2-4 in such video games in opposition to the Bucks and Warmth. A type of video games was Sunday’s Sport 7, wherein a missed Jimmy Butler 3-pointer may have resulted in a historic collapse.

The Celtics have thrived this postseason when they’re able to soar out to large leads and smother opponents with their league-leading protection.

This Celtics roster enters the Finals with zero video games of Finals expertise, whereas Golden State has 123. Based on ESPN Stats & Data analysis, that is simply the third Finals in NBA historical past wherein one group has had 100-plus video games of expertise whereas the opposite group had zero, and the primary time since 1997 (Bulls 134, Utah Jazz 0).

Nonetheless, inexperience did not cease Boston from turning an under-.500 midseason report right into a Finals berth, turning into the primary group to do it for the reason that 1980-81 Rockets, per ESPN Stats and Data. It did not deter the Celtics from romping via the primary spherical or battling again in opposition to the Bucks or profitable a highway Sport 7 within the Jap Convention finals.

However these are the Warriors, who’re very a lot wanting like the Warriors. If the Celtics need title No. 18, they’re going to have to ensure their lack of Finals expertise does not turn out to be an element on the largest stage.

— Andrew Lopez

Collection key: How Golden State handles a switch-heavy protection

Golden State managed to succeed in the NBA Finals with out dealing with a group that likes to modify on protection. Not one of the Warriors’ three West opponents (Denver, Memphis or Dallas) had been within the prime half of the league in frequency of switching on-ball screens through the common season, per Second Spectrum monitoring. And whereas the Mavericks, specifically, began switching extra over the course of their sequence in opposition to the Warriors, Golden State nonetheless ranks ninth among the many 16 playoff groups in how usually opponents have switched in opposition to them (31.5% of the time) through the playoffs, based on Second Spectrum.

That is about to vary in an enormous approach. No different group switched extra incessantly than the Celtics through the common season, they usually rank second in frequency (44%) thus far through the playoffs.

In concept, switching most screens can take the Warriors out of the free-flowing offense they like to play. Consider how the Houston Rockets grounded Golden State’s offense down at instances within the 2018 convention finals, holding them under 95 factors in back-to-back wins in Video games 4 and 5. The Warriors had a mixed 32 assists in these video games, a slight uptick over what they averaged per recreation the earlier spherical in opposition to the New Orleans Pelicans (30.8).

Not like again in 2018, Golden State not has a singular isolation participant like Kevin Durant to hunt mismatches in opposition to a switch-heavy protection. Nonetheless, the Warriors have additionally confronted switches usually sufficient within the postseason to have developed a strong menu of choices in opposition to them, beginning with Curry’s skill to maneuver with out the ball and Inexperienced’s ability choosing aside defensive errors.

These traits had been on full show throughout Golden State’s closeout win over Dallas, which switched 63% of the Warriors’ on-ball screens in Sport 5 per Second Spectrum — probably the most of any Warriors playoff recreation. That did not stop them from handing out 36 assists, the second most in a recreation throughout these playoffs. Curry and Inexperienced had 9 apiece.

On the identical time, Golden State completed that in opposition to a group that hardly ever converted the course of the common season and playoffs. Now, the Warriors will face a well-drilled switching assault that does so from a place of power relatively than weak spot. How nicely they deal with switches will go a good distance towards figuring out the result of the Finals.

— Kevin Pelton