Boston Celtics in 6 games over the Dallas Mavericks: What to watch for in the NBA Finals

The Boston Celtics should win this year’s NBA Finals over the Dallas Mavericks.

Led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, they have the league’s best record.

The Celtics are the best 3-point shooting team in terms of makes and boast one of the top defenses led by two NBA All-Defensive selections in Derrick White and Jrue Holiday.

They just have one problem. Well, two – Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

Those two can break down any defense and close the close games like no others in the NBA.

I’m still predicting the Celtics to win in six games, but it should be a great series that begins Thursday in Boston at 5:30 p.m. (Arizona time), on ABC. Love the coaching matchup between Joe Mazzulla, the 35-year-old coaching wiz, and Jason Kidd, one of the all-time greats as an NBA player who is proving he also can coach at the highest level.

Here are five things to watch in the finals:

Pick-and-roll defense

Holiday, White, Brown and Tatum enable Boston to switch on the perimeter, but Holiday and Brown also take pride in guarding their man through the screen.

Interested in seeing who takes on the challenge of guarding Doncic and Irving. Thinking White checks Irving and Holiday guards Doncic when looking at the size Dallas has with P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr., but maybe Boston decides to put White on, say, Jones Jr. and has Brown guard Doncic.

However, the Mavs will target Kristaps Porzingis, who is returning from a right calf strain suffered in Game 4 of Boston’s first round series against Miami, and Al Horford, who struggles at times defending the pick-and-roll.

It’s tough enough guarding Doncic and Irving one-on-one, but if they’re able to play downhill with Porzingis and Horford being the last line of defense, uh oh. Boston must present consistent perimeter resistance whether it’s trapping Doncic or Irving, ball denial or just straight up man-to-man defense.

If the 3 isn’t falling

Boston not only led the NBA in 3-pointers made per game in the regular season at 16.5, but also in attempts at 42.5. They’re the only team in the league to hoist 40-plus.

Nothing has changed in the postseason. The Celtics once again are first in the playoffs in made 3s at 14.6 and launched ones at 39.8, but they failed to reach those numbers in their two postseason defeats.

Game 2 vs. Miami (L, 108-101) – 12-of-32 from 3.

Game 2 vs. Cleveland (L, 118-94) – 8-of-35 from 3.

The Mavericks were 18^th in defensive rating in the regular season at 114.9, as teams shot 36.8% against them from 3. They’ve improved those numbers in the playoffs – seventh (out of 16 teams) in defensive rating at 111.1 with opponents connecting on 35.6% of their 3s.

Can the Mavs continue that trend against the NBA’s top 3-point team?

Tatum settling?

Boston generates great catch-and-shoot looks off ball movement, but takes its share off the bounce starting with Tatum. He has a frequency of 11.3 on 3s with zero dribbles and 9.9 on seven-plus dribbles.

He’s shooting 25% from deep in both cases.

Tatum has taken 274 shots in the playoffs with 100 coming from 3. He’s only made 29 of those 3s, but the All-NBA first team selection is a career 37.5% shooter from deep.

Being 6-8 with handles, Tatum could be just as much as a matchup problem for Dallas as Irving and Doncic will be for Boston. He’s attempting 7.9 free throws in the playoffs, the most of any player in the finals. An attacking Tatum is a problem, but it’s on him to consistently have that mentality.

Extra motivation

Brown is considered Tatum’s Robin.

No worries. The Celtics know how important he is, but not making All-NBA has Brown in even more of a show-and-prove mode.

Now, that can work in two ways. Brown can either come out and play his best basketball or try to do too much at the expense of the team and turning the ball over.

Winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP brings him some validation. Winning an NBA championship will add to that, but there’s a fine line between wanting to answer doubters and playing your role.

Brown’s approach to the series is just as important as how he plays in it.

Which role players will step up?

Holiday is the first name that comes to mind. He’s not only won an NBA title, but Holiday provides what is required of him to help the Celtics.

Defend one game. Score the next. Hit the open shot.

For Dallas, Daniel Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II are lob threats on offense, but they must defend the paint to the point the Celtics, particularly Brown, aren’t getting straight-line drives to the rim.

It’s not always about blocking the shot. Altering them is just as effective.

One more – Doncic time

He made All-NBA first team for a fifth consecutive time after leading the NBA in scoring this season at 33.9 points a game. Finished third in the MVP voting.

Hit the most exciting shot of the playoffs in Game 2 at Minnesota – an icy, mean-mugging stepback 3 over now four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, 7-footer Rudy Gobert, with three seconds left to complete a comeback win and give Dallas a 2-0 series lead in the Western Conference Finals.

The word ‘superstar’ is used too loosely these days, but Doncic is one of them in the league. He controls pace without having tremendous speed or quickness, facilitates, rebounds and delivers in the clutch.

The only thing he’s not is an NBA champion.

Doncic is four wins away from that surrounded by his best collection of teammates since coming into the NBA with the best version of Irving on a redemption tour to show how great of a player he is.

Boston isn’t going to give him the championship. Doncic is going to have to earn it.

That’s what the greatest ones have done. It’s on you, Luka. Make it happen.

Have opinion about current state of the Suns? Reach Suns Insider Duane Rankin at dmrankin@gannett.com or contact him at 480-810-5518. Follow him on Twitter at @DuaneRankin.

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