The series now shifts to Dallas with the Celtics up 2-0 on the Mavericks. The Mavericks are 5-3 at home in the playoffs. They were 25-16 at home in the regular season. The Celtics are 6-0 on the road in the playoffs and they were 27-14 on the road in the regular season. The Mavericks should play better at home since young players and role players play better at home but the Celtics have played very well on the road also.

In NBA Finals history, 36 teams have started the series down 0-2. Of those 36, only 5 have gone on to win the series. The 1969 Celtics came back from 0-2 to beat the LA Lakers in Bill Russell’s last season. The 1977 Trail Blazers with Bill Walton came back from 0-2 to beat the Suns. The 2006 Heat with DWade and Shaq came back from 0-2 to beat the Mavericks.

The last two teams that came back from 0-2 in the Finals to win the Championship involved 2 players who are in this series. The 2016 Cavs with LeBron and Kyrie Irving came back from 0-2 to beat the Warriors. And finally, the 2021 Bucks with Giannis and Jrue Holiday came back from down 0-2 to beat the Suns. Also, in 2022, the Celtics were up 2-1 before losing the series in 6 games.

The Celtics as a team are 43-1 in series that they took an 0-2 lead. The one loss was in 2018 Eastern Conference Finals in Jayson Tatum’s rookie season. Of the 36 teams that took an 0-2 lead in the Finals, 33 of those teams won Game 3. This game is very crucial for the Celtics as it would give them a commanding lead in the series. Teams have gone down 0-3 in series 156 times and none have come back to win the series.

After playing in the first 2 games, Kristaps Porzingis is back on the injury list. There are narratives that the Celtics can’t win the title without Porzingis, but, they have had a lot of experience playing without him, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. The Celtics are 21-4 without Porzingis in the regular season and 12-2 without him in the playoffs.

The Celtics have faced teams that have had to play without their starts and for the most part, those teams played great and the Celtics struggled against them. Now, it is the Celtics turn to pick up the slack and win without one of their stars. They still have plenty of scorers and defenders on the team to get it done. Every player would need to pick up their energy and play a bit harder to make up for the injured center.

Porzingis came up limping after coming down awkwardly in the third quarter of Game 2. He tried to play through the injury but didn’t finish the game. After the game, we were told he was fine and would play in Game 3. However, on Tuesday, we were told he suffered a torn medial retinaculum. He is listed as day to day and will be a game time decision as to whether he will play in Game 3.

As he has been throughout the post season, Luka Doncic is once again on the injury list. He has been listed as probable with a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness almost every game in the first 3 rounds but has not missed a game yet. Before Game 2, he was downgraded to questionable with a chest contusion and was wrapped up like a mummy before the game but played the game and didn’t seem to be hampered at all by the list of ailments. He is expected to play in this game as well.

Probable Celtics Starters

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Celtics Reserves
Al Horford
Oshae Brissett
Sam Hauser
Svi Mykhailiuk
Payton Pritchard
Jordan Walsh
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman
Neemias Queta
Luke Kornet

2 Way Players
JD Davison
Drew Peterson

Injuries/Out
Kristaps Porzingis (lower leg) questionable

Head Coach
Joe Mazzulla

Probable Mavericks Starters

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Mavericks Reserves
Dante Exum
Josh Green
Tim Hardaway, Jr
Jaden Hardy
Maxi Kleber
Markieff Morris
AJ Lawson
Dereck Lively II
Markieff Morris
Dwight Powell
Oliver-Maxence Prosper

Two-Way Players
Greg Brown III
Alex Fudge
Brandon Williams

Injuries/Out
Luka Doncic (ankle/knee/chest) probable

Head Coach
Jason Kidd

Key Matchups

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  Jrue Holiday
  
  
  Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images
  

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  Luka Doncic
  
  
  Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images
  

Jrue Holiday vs Luka Doncic
Doncic finished Game 1 with 30 points, 10 rebounds, 1 assist and 2 steals while shooting 46.2% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc.He finished Game 2 with 32 points, 11 rebounds, 11 assists, 4 steals and 8 turnovers while shooting 57.1% from the field and 44.4% from beyond the arc. He is very tough to defend as he can shoot from pretty much anywhere on the court. The Celtics did a decent job of defending him in the first 2 games. They need to do their best to limit him in this game as well.

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  Derrick White
  
  
  Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
  

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  Kyrie Irving
  
  
  Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images
  

Derrick White vs Kyrie Irving
In Game 1, Irving finished with 12 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals while shooting 31.6% from the field and 0-5 on threes. In Game 2, he finished with 16 points, 2 rebounds, and 6 assists while shooting 38.9% from the field and 0-3 from beyond the arc. I expect him to play better in Dallas without the pressure of the Garden crowd but he still has to get through 2 very tough defensive guards. He played very poorly in the first 2 games of that 2016 series but came back to finish strong to help them to win the series, including a game winner in Game 7 so the Celtics can’t count him out.

Honorable Mention
Jayson Tatum vs PJ Washington
Washington was a big addition to the Mavs at the trade deadline. In Game 1, Washington finished with 14 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 assist while shooting 45% from the field and 0-3 from beyond the arc. In Game 2, he finished with 17 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 block. Role players usually play much better at home and so the Celtics need to be ready for a big game from him and keep him out of the paint and off of the boards. Tatum is due for a big game but if he continues to struggle on offense, hopefully he continues to play team ball and not force shots.

Keys to the Game
Defense – Defense is always the number one key to winning games, especially in the playoffs. There is no truer statement than “Defense wins Championships.” In the playoffs, the Mavs are averaging 106.4 points per game (7th) while the Celtics average 110.7 points per game (2nd). The Mavs are 8th with a defensive rating of 111.3 while the Celtics are 3rd with a defensive rating of 107.8. When the Celtics struggle on offense, as they did in Game 2, they have to be able to stop the other team from scoring. The Mavs are likely to attempt more 3’s this game and the Celtics need to be ready to defend them tighter on the perimeter. The Celtics need to play tough, lock down defense for the entire game. The Mavericks have players who can put up a lot of points in a hurry if the Celtics don’t play tough team defense. Defense won Games 1 and 2 and is likely going to be what wins this series.

Rebound – Second to defense, rebounding is the key to winning. One of the few times I have agreed with Pat Riley was when he said “No rebounds, no rings.” Much of rebounding is effort and the Celtics have to put out extra effort to win the battle of the boards. When they work hard on the boards, it usually follows through to the rest of the game as well. The Celtics are averaging 43.8 rebounds per game (3rd) while the Mavs are averaging 43.1 rebounds per game (4th). In Game 1, the Celtics out-rebounded the Mavs 47-43 but they were out-rebounded in Game 2 43-41. The Celtics need to put out extra effort on the boards to keep the Mavs from getting extra possessions and second chance points and to give the same to themselves.

3 Point Shooting – Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. The Celtics are 1st in the playoffs with 16.5 three pointers made, while the Mavs are 3rd with 14.6 three pointers made. The Celtics are 1st with 42.5 threes attempted while the Mavs are 2nd with 39.5 threes attempted. The Celtics are 62-9 this season when they hit at least 15 three pointers. The Celtics struggled shooting the 3 in Game 2, shooting just 25.6%, but their defense was strong enough to get them the win. The Mavericks are likely going to make a concerted effort to run the Celtics off the 3 point line in this game. If the 3’s aren’t falling once again in this game, the Celtics need to go to the hoop and not shoot themselves out of the game. On the other hand, the Celtics need to work hard to limit the Mavs 3 pointers.

Maximum Effort for 48 Minutes – The Celtics have to play hard from the opening tip to the final buzzer. It will be important to get off to a strong start. Dallas is 8-2 when they win the first quarter and the Celtics are 11-0 when they win the first quarter. They have to play hard on offense and especially on defense with no let up. The Mavericks are the toughest team that they have faced in the playoffs and nothing less than full effort from every player every minute they are in will do. The Celtics need to be aggressive in defending, going to the basket and. especially in rebounding. The two games the Celtics lost in these playoffs were mostly due to a lack of effort, especially on defense. They can’t let the Mavs play harder than them if they want to win this game.

X-Factors
On the Road – The Celtics are playing on the road but both teams had to travel to get to Dallas. They need to keep their focus on playing the right way and not let the distractions of the road take away that focus. Over the past 3 years, Boston has gone 20-7 on the road in the playoffs. This is tied with the 91-93 Chicago Bulls for the best road record in the playoffs over a 3 year period. The Mavericks, especially the role players, are likely to play better on their home court and in front of their fans. The Celtics need to dig down deep and match the energy of the Mavs and continue to play Celtics basketball on the road.

Experience – Seven of the Celtics players have at least 5 games of Finals experience, including 4 of the starters plus Al Horford. Combined, the Celtics have 44 games of Finals experience. The Mavericks, on the other hand, have a total of just 23 games of Finals experience. Kyrie Irving has 13 of those 23 games with the rest of the team having just 10 games. This is the 2nd time in just 3 years that Tatum, Brown and Horford have been to the Finals. The Celtics need to use their experience and also to use the Mavericks’ lack of Finals experience to their advantage.

Officiating – The officiating can always be an x-factor. Every crew calls the game a little differently and teams need to adjust to how the game is being called. Will they call the game tight or will they let them play? The Celtics can’t let the officiating take away their focus and they have to adjust to the way the refs are calling it. In these playoffs, we have seen several games lost on bad calls at the end of games. The Celtics need to play hard and build a lead and not allow the refs to take the game away on a bad call at the end.

Official Report
Crew Chief – Marc Davis
Davis has a home win/loss record of 41-36 this season. He calls 51% of fouls on the road team and 49% on the home team. Boston is 8-2 in their last 10 games with Davis as the crew chief, including the May 1 win over Miami in the first round and May 13 win over Cleveland in Game 5 and Game 3 win over Indiana. Dallas is 8-2 in their last 10 with Davis, including 4/23 win over the Clippers, 5/22 and 5/30 wins over Minnesota. Boston is 55-56 all time with Davis as a ref and Dallas is 57-38 all time with Davis as a ref. Davis was voted the third worst referee in the league in a poll of the players, behind Scott Foster and Tony Brothers. Comments from players say he is arrogant and will sometime instigate things. He wasn’t bad in the Celtics 3 games so far in these playoffs.

Referee – James Capers
Capers has a home win/loss record of 29-29 this season. He calls 53% of fouls against the road team and 47% against the home team. The Celtics are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Capers including the 5/27 win over the Pacers. The Mavericks are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Capers, including including the 5/22 and 5/30 wins over the Wolves, 5/15 win over OKC and 4/23 win over the Clippers. The Celtics are 55-58 all time in games called by Capers while the Mavericks are 73-45 all time with Capers as a ref.

Umpire – Kevin Scott
Scott has a home win/loss record or 41-21 this season. He calls 51% of the fouls against the road team and 49% against the home team. The Celtics are 7-3 this season with Scott and this is their first game in these playoffs with Scott. The Mavericks are 10-0 with Scott as a ref in their last 10 games including 4/23 win over the Clippers, 5/15 win over the Thunder and 5/22 and 5/30 wins over the Timber Wolves. The Celtics are 28-23 all time with Scott as a referee while the Mavericks are 26-26 all time with Scott calling the games.

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