All Eyes on Merrill Kelly as Diamondbacks go for Sweep in Boston

The Arizona Diamondbacks (74-56) will go for the three game sweep against the Boston Red Sox (67-61) Sunday at historic Fenway Park in Boston. First pitch is 10:35 A.M. Arizona time, 1:35 P.M. EST. The D-backs won the first two games 12-2 and 4-1, holding the normally excellent Boston lineup in check.

The Diamondbacks are 3.0 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and currently hold the top NL Wild Card spot, 1.5 games ahead of the Padres and 3.5 games ahead of the Braves. The Mets, who Arizona plays in their next series, are six games back of Arizona.

The Red Sox are 4.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the third AL Wild Spot with 34 games remaining.

Pavin Smith gets a start in left field, spelling Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Smith has played sparingly since getting recalled to replace the injured Ketel Marte on the roster. He’s 0-8 with two walks in two prior starts on August 19th and 21st.

Tyler O’neil is back in the lineup at left field for the Red Sox. He missed the first two games of the series with left fourth finger inflammation, an injury suffered during batting practice. He’s faced D-backs starter Merrill Kelly 17 times in his career, but has just one hit. That was a homer back in 2019.

Merrill Kelly RHP, 3-0, 3.63 ERA, 4.07 FIP in 34.2 IP

Kelly is making his third start since missing nearly four months with a left shoulder strain in the Teres Major muscle. He looked sharp in his first game back, going five innings against the Phillies, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks.

It was a different story in his second game. With his velocity all the way down to 89.6 MPH on his fastball, and his command not as sharp as usual, he gave up six runs on eight hits, two walks and a homer to the Rays on August 18th.

Speaking afterwards Kelly said the velocity loss wasn’t a big concern for him, as long as it does not stay down in that range. Velocity loss is often associated with shoulder injuries, but he has not reported any undue discomfort in the shoulder since coming back.

Tanner Houck RHP, 8-8, 3.01 ERA, 3.19 FIP in 152.2 IP

The 28 year old won’t wow you with velocity, as his sinker averages a solid but unspectacular 93.4 MPH. He throws his sweeper more than any other pitch (42%) compared to the sinker (31.6%). His out pitch against lefties is a splitter, with well above average vertical break.

Houck was a first round draft pick, 24th overall, by the Red Sox in 2017. He made his major league debut during the Pandemic 2020 season. A down year last year has been followed by the best season of his career so far. He’s thrown 18.2 innings over his last three outings, allowing six runs, five earned, 2.41 ERA.

Houck has a large reverse split, allowing just a .213 B.A. and .576 OPS against left-hand batters compared to a .255 B.A. and .659 OPS against right-hand batters.

Crawford has the fourth highest ground ball percentage in MLB, 55.8%. He keeps the ball in the yard, allowing just nine homers. His 0.53 home run per nine innings is also the fourth best in MLB. Houck’s 72% Quality Start percentage (18-25) ranks sixth best in MLB.

The D-backs bullpen has been very good this series. The only run allowed in six innings of work over the last two games came against Paul Sewald in the ninth on Saturday. That forced Torey Lovullo to get Justin Martinez warmed up during the inning, but he did not need to enter the game. Martinez has had a heavy workload of late and it would have been preferable if he did not need to warm up at all.

The Red Sox bullpen has been the worst in MLB since the All-Star break, with s 6.70 ERA. They have not pitched well this series, giving up nine runs in 7.2 innings pitched.