War in Ukraine reaches pivotal moment that could determine long-term outcome, intelligence officials say

Three potential outcomes

Western officers are carefully watching three attainable situations that they imagine might unfold:

Then there’s what officers think about the least possible risk: Russia might redefine its battle goals, announce that it has achieved victory and try and engineer a near the combating. For now, that situation seems to be little greater than wishful pondering, sources say.

Western navy assist, he mentioned, “has to come back faster” if Ukraine’s allies need to stymie Russia’s territorial ambitions.

Western officers broadly imagine that Russia is in a extra favorable place within the east, based mostly solely on mass. Nonetheless, “Russian progress will not be a foregone conclusion,” mentioned one senior Biden administration official.

Because the entrance strains of the battle have settled right into a battle of attrition constructed round back-and-forth artillery fireplace, either side have suffered super casualties and now face potential manpower shortfalls. Russia has additionally suffered losses of as a lot as a 3rd of its floor power, and US intelligence officers have mentioned publicly that Russia will battle to make any critical beneficial properties with out a full mobilization, a politically harmful transfer that Putin has thus far been unwilling to make.

For now, the combating is centered on two sister cities on reverse sides of the Seversky Donets River, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Ukrainian fighters are virtually fully encircled at Sievierodonetsk.

Regardless that Western analysts imagine Ukraine stands a greater probability of defending Lysychansk, which sits on excessive floor, there are already troubling indicators that Russian is making an attempt to chop off the town’s provide strains by advancing from the southeast.

“In some ways, the destiny of our Donbas is being determined” round these two cities, Zelensky mentioned final week.

A desire for Soviet methods

US officers insist that Western arms are nonetheless flowing to the entrance strains of the combat. However native reviews of weapons shortages — and pissed off pleas from Ukrainian officers on the entrance strains — have raised questions on how successfully provide strains are operating. Ukraine has begged not just for heavy artillery but additionally for much more primary provides, like ammunition.

A part of the issue, sources say, is that whilst Ukraine is operating out of outdated Soviet munitions that match current methods, there have additionally been obstacles to transitioning its fighters to Western, NATO-compliant methods. For one factor, coaching troopers on these methods takes time — and takes wanted fighters away from the battlefield.

In some circumstances, in keeping with one supply conversant in US intelligence, Ukraine is just opting to not use the unfamiliar Western methods. For instance, regardless of receiving a whole bunch of Switchblade drones, some models desire to make use of business drones rigged with explosives which might be extra user-friendly.

In the meantime, there are a restricted variety of Soviet-era munitions nonetheless current elsewhere on the earth that may be despatched to Ukraine. The US is urging nations with older stockpiles to determine what they’ve obtainable to present Ukraine, however the punishing artillery battle is “wiping Soviet stuff off the face of the earth” for Ukraine and the allies supplying it, in keeping with a US official.

Though the US has a transparent image of Russian battlefield losses, it has struggled from the start to evaluate Ukraine’s combating energy. Officers have acknowledged that the US would not have a transparent image of the place Western arms go or how successfully they’re used as soon as they cross the border into Ukraine — making intelligence predictions in regards to the combating tough and coverage choices about how and when to resupply Ukraine equally tough.

The senior Biden administration official instructed CNN that the US is attempting to “higher perceive their [the Ukrainians’] consumption price and operational tempo,” when requested particularly if Ukraine is operating low on ammunition and weapons. “It is exhausting to know,” this particular person mentioned. It is clear that Ukraine is closely utilizing the artillery the US and different Western nations have offered, as a result of a lot of it strikes in and in a foreign country for repairs.

That blind spot is partially as a result of Ukraine would not inform the West all the pieces, Western officers say. And since the combating is concentrated in such a small space comparatively near Russia, Western intelligence companies do not have the identical visibility that they do elsewhere.

“As you get right down to the tactical stage, particularly within the location the place the vast majority of the combating is, it is additional away from us, nearer to Russia, and the forces are extra densely packed in very, very shut to one another,” the senior NATO official mentioned. “So it is tough to get granular image of the standing of combating sometimes within the east.”

It is also tough to foretell how Ukraine’s navy will carry out on this pivotal second as a result of as casualties have mounted, unexpectedly skilled civilian volunteers are being despatched into the combat, the NATO official added. Their efficiency underneath fireplace is an unknown amount.

“It is one factor to have individuals obtainable, however the query is, are they prepared for the combat? I feel you are going to see that as an element,” the official mentioned.

Predicting Putin’s subsequent transfer

In the meantime, US and different Western officers see no signal that Putin’s dedication to prosecuting the pricey battle has diminished.

“When it comes to the strategic goals that we choose Putin has vis-a-vis Ukraine, I do not see any indicators that these have modified,” the NATO official mentioned. “Putin nonetheless believes that ultimately he shall be profitable and can both bodily management or will acquire a type of political management over Ukraine in both vital half or ideally in entire.”

However even when Putin’s dedication stays ironclad, there’s a rising consciousness that the West’s won’t be.

Because the combating has dragged on, the price to Western governments has continued to rise. Some Western governments — together with america — have develop into involved that the stream of donated weapons to Ukraine has depleted nationwide stockpiles crucial to their very own protection.

“It is a legitimate concern” for america, the senior administration official acknowledged.

Then, in fact, there’s the sting of excessive power costs and excessive inflation. As these prices start to impression unusual residents, within the US and in Europe, and as media consideration begins to float from the day-to-day grind of the combating, some officers concern Western help for Ukraine might wane.

The spokesperson for the Ukrainian navy’s worldwide legion on Monday derided a “sense of complacency” amongst Ukraine’s navy patrons, saying the nation wants way more help whether it is to defeat Russia’s invasion.

“There is a sure sense of complacency that appears to have fallen over our Western companions that the arms deliveries that Ukraine has been already supplied with are one way or the other sufficient to win the battle,” mentioned Damien Magrou, spokesperson for the Worldwide Legion for the Protection of Ukraine, throughout a information convention.

“They aren’t! They don’t come close to something that may be near enabling us to defeat the Russians on the battlefield.”