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Ukraine has denied Russia a victory for four weeks. A grim new phase could be coming

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Ukraine has denied Russia a victory for four weeks. A grim new phase could be coming

It is tempting to view this small victory for Ukrainian forces as a shift of momentum within the battle for Kyiv: In higher instances, this suburb can be solely an hour’s drive to Khreshchatyk, the capital’s central boulevard.

Kyiv as soon as gave the impression to be the first goal of what the Kremlin should have envisioned as a swift regime-change operation. The capital has been rocked by explosions in current days, however it’s removed from encircled.

On the Azov Sea, the besieged southeastern metropolis of Mariupol — regardless of being surrounded and mercilessly pummeled, block by block, by Russian firepower — nonetheless eludes Russian management. Its defenders rejected an ultimatum to give up by Monday morning, thwarting a Russian effort to finalize a land bridge linking Crimea with the separatist republics of the jap Donbas area.

Practically a month after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian army has perceptibly shifted its messaging. The Russian army’s advances have been stymied, the Ukrainians say, forcing a shift in Russian techniques.

“Because of the lack of success of the bottom section of the operation, the enemy continues to actively launch missile and bomb strikes on essential army and civilian infrastructure utilizing operational and tactical plane, high-precision missile weapons and indiscriminate munitions,” the Common Workers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated in a press release Tuesday.

There’s loads of proof to recommend that the Russians are taking extra of a standoff method, launching salvos of missiles from exterior of Ukrainian airspace.

In a press release launched Sunday, Russia’s protection ministry stated warships within the Caspian sea launched Kalibr cruise missiles and plane launched Kinzhal hypersonic missile methods from the airspace over Crimea. These missiles focused what the Russians described as a big storage base for fuels and lubricants of the Ukrainian army close to the settlement of Kostyantynivka, within the southern Mykolaiv area.

Individually, the Russian army stated Kalibr cruise missiles have been fired from the Black Sea, focusing on a workshop for the restore of Ukrainian armored autos. Russian precision missiles additionally focused what Russia described as a Ukrainian army coaching heart close to the settlement of Ovruch, within the northern Zhytomyr area.

There is a component of PR to such expensive shows of firepower: Russia is eager to export a model of the Kalibr and it has touted the Kinzhal as having the ability to elude missile-defense methods.

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The UK protection ministry, for one, was dismissive of Russian claims in regards to the Kinzhal’s fight debut, saying its use was “extremely possible meant to detract from an absence of progress in Russia’s floor marketing campaign. Deployment of Kinzhal is extremely unlikely to materially have an effect on the result of Russia’s marketing campaign in Ukraine.”

Such assessments, nonetheless, give little solace to anybody on the receiving finish of Russian firepower. Dozens have been killed Friday in a missile strike on a barracks housing troopers in Mykolaiv, and Russian long-distance strikes have struck areas distant from the entrance traces: Not less than 35 individuals have been killed in strikes on March 13 towards the Yavoriv army coaching floor within the Lviv area of western Ukraine, not removed from the Polish border. Greater than 30 missiles fired from warplanes over the Black and Azov seas hit the bottom.

Nonetheless, Russia has to date not captured any main Russian metropolis within the offensive: neither Kharkiv within the northeast, nor Odesa within the southwest. Even Sumy and Chernihiv within the north, each of that are simply throughout the border from main army staging areas inside Russia, stay below Ukrainian management. And in Kherson, a medium-sized metropolis within the south below Russian management, Russian forces have confronted one other protracted drawback: Offended locals who collect day by day within the central sq. to inform Russian troops go dwelling. A type of rallies ended Monday with one man significantly injured after Russian troops used gunfire and obvious stun grenades to disperse the gang.

Army analysts fear about one other consequence of this rising section of the warfare: As Russian floor forces turn out to be slowed down and make little new progress, their leaders resort extra to the indiscriminate and punitive use of firepower towards Ukrainian cities.

A March 19 evaluation by the Institute for the Examine of Battle gave exactly that grim prognosis.

“If the warfare in Ukraine settles right into a stalemate situation, Russian forces will proceed to bomb and bombard Ukrainian cities, devastating them and killing civilians, at the same time as Ukrainian forces impose losses on Russian attackers and conduct counter-attacks of their very own,” the evaluation learn.

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“The Russians may hope to interrupt Ukrainians’ will to proceed preventing below such circumstances by demonstrating Kyiv’s incapacity to expel Russian forces or cease their assaults even when the Russians are demonstrably unable to take Ukraine’s cities. Ukraine’s defeat of the preliminary Russian marketing campaign could subsequently set circumstances for a devastating protraction of the battle and a harmful new interval testing the resolve of Ukraine and the West.”

Belarusian military could 'soon' join war in Ukraine, US and NATO officials say

Including to that gloomy forecast, Ukrainian officers have begun warning of a possible new entrance within the warfare, with the nation’s Common Workers saying Sunday the specter of an offensive from Belarus within the path of northwestern Ukraine was “excessive,” with out giving additional specifics.

Ukraine’s northwestern Volyn area borders Belarus to the north and Poland, a NATO ally, to the west. It may — theoretically — function a gateway for attacking forces from the north to method Lviv, a strategic metropolis in western Ukraine that may be a hub for each authorities logistics and aid efforts, in addition to a transit level for a lot of civilians seeking to flee preventing in different components of the nation.

Russia has already used Belarusian territory as a launching pad for its invasion, with Russian forces staging an offensive push towards Kyiv and central Ukraine from southern Belarus.

It is unclear if Belarus would actively be a part of the warfare. However the Ukrainian Common Workers is already warning that Russia is now wanting to usher in reserve forces to the borders of Ukraine.
If true, that speaks volumes. It attests to the excessive value the Russian army has already paid when it comes to lives — despite the fact that the Kremlin has not disclosed casualty totals since March 2. And it speaks to the political will of 1 individual — Russian President Vladimir Putin — to proceed expending blood and treasure in Ukraine.
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LA fires are still raging, but forecasters expect calmer winds in the coming days

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LA fires are still raging, but forecasters expect calmer winds in the coming days

An urban search and rescue team from Mexico combs through the ruins of a beachfront house searching for victims in the aftermath of the Palisades Fire in Malibu, Calif., on Tuesday.

Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images


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Valerie Macon/AFP via Getty Images

This is a developing story. For the latest local updates head to LAist.com and sign up for breaking news alerts.

Another day of fierce winds gusting to 65 mph in mountainous areas of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties in Southern California was expected on Wednesday, but weather more conducive to firefighting operations is expected soon.

The National Weather Service (NWS) issued another red flag warning for the area until 3 p.m. PST, cautioning of more of the windy and dry conditions that have fed raging fires for more than a week. The strong Santa Ana winds have helped push the deadly blazes through the Los Angeles suburbs, killing at least 25 people and leveling expensive real estate in Pacific Palisades and Altadena.

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All told, the fires have engulfed more than 40,000 acres (more than 62 square miles), according to Cal Fire.

“The good news is that for the last two days we’ve had no increase in acreage at the Eaton Fire and it remains estimated at 14,117 acres with 35% containment,” Los Angeles County Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said of one of the largest fires. 

The Palisades fire, which spans more than 23,000 acres, is just 19% contained, according to Cal Fire.

On Tuesday, meteorologists initially called for particularly strong winds that turned out to be lighter that expected, according to NPR member station LAist.

But a reprieve in the high winds was expected from Thursday into Saturday. NWS meteorologist Ryan Kittell noted that the service is worried about “one last [wind] enhancement” through Wednesday and that peak winds would be highest in Ventura County.

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Speaking at a news conference on Wednesday, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass had difficulty describing the devastation that has befallen her city.

“The massive, massive destruction. Is unimaginable until you actually see it,” Bass said. Even so, she said, it was time “to begin to think about how we rebuild.”

Since the fires broke out last week, responders from across the U.S., Canada and Mexico have come to the aid of Southern California. “Yesterday, I also had the opportunity to meet with our international partners from Mexico to express our heartfelt gratitude for their assistance. The outpouring of support from both near and far, I tell you, is absolutely remarkable,” LA Fire Chief Kristin Crowley said.

Of the 25 dead, 17 were killed in the Eaton Fire and eight in the Palisades Fire, LAist says. Officials said of the 13 still listed as missing, two bodies had been recovered but not yet positively identified.

More than 55,000 customers were without power on Wednesday in Los Angeles and Ventura counties, according to PowerOutage.us.

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How to help and stay safe

Resources to help stay safe:

➡️ With fire danger still high, authorities implore you to follow evacuation orders

➡️ What to do — and not do — when you get home after a fire evacuation

➡️ Is smoke in your home? Here’s how to make an air purifier from a box fan

➡️Trying to stay safe in a wildfire? There’s an app that can help

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Ways to support the response and recovery:

➡️ Want to help fire victims? Here’s what experts say does the most good and places seeking volunteers

➡️ Wildfire donations and volunteering: How and where to help

➡️ Share: These are the steps fire victims need to take to make an insurance claim

The California Newsroom is following the extreme weather from across the region. Click through to LAist’s coverage for the latest.

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Pilots Battling L.A Fires Face Heat, Turbulence, and High-Pressure Risks

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Pilots Battling L.A Fires Face Heat, Turbulence, and High-Pressure Risks

Piloting a firefighting aircraft is sweaty, tiring work, Mr. Mattiacci said. The conditions that increase fire risk — hot days, high wind, often mountainous areas — also make for turbulent flying conditions. The aircraft fly at low speeds, increasing the turbulence, he added.

“You get pulled up out of your seat and your head bangs against the roof,” he said. In the hot conditions, pilots must keep just hydrated enough not to have to use the bathroom, on flights that can last up to five hours, he said.

There’s also a risk of flying into the thick, blinding smoke that wildfires send up, he said. The aircraft flying low to the ground — sometimes as low as the height of treetops — meaning there’s a significant risk of flying into power lines, radio towers and buildings.

“When we lose all visual reference, it gets a bit scary,” he said.

The stronger the winds, the harder it is to get close to the fire, as winds push the smoke around and obstruct visibility.

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The large air tankers in Australia drop retardant from an altitude of about 100 to 150 feet, he said, while smaller ones can fly even lower. The largest tankers — which can carry up to 9,400 gallons of fire retardant at a time, and have been used to fight the Southern California fires — drop from about 250 feet, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

Mr. Mattiacci said that he often feels pressure as he looks down from the cockpit at homes and structures under threat, knowing his job is to help save them. And if the fire retardant doesn’t land where it’s needed, he added, during a fast-moving fire, “there might not be another chance.”

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German economy shrinks for second consecutive year

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German economy shrinks for second consecutive year

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Germany’s economy shrank for a second straight year in 2024, underlining the severity of the downturn facing Europe’s manufacturing powerhouse.

The Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday that Europe’s largest economy contracted by 0.2 per cent last year, after shrinking by 0.3 per cent in 2023. Economists had expected a decline of 0.2 per cent.

“Germany is experiencing the longest stagnation of its postwar history by far,” said Timo Wollmershäuser, economist at Ifo, a Munich-based economic think-tank, adding that the country was also underperforming significantly in an international comparison.

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Confirmation that Germany is suffering one of the most protracted economic crises in decades comes six weeks ahead of a crucial snap election.

Campaigning has been dominated by the spectre of deindustrialisation, crumbling infrastructure and whether or not the country should abandon a debt brake that constrains public spending.

Friedrich Merz, head of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union who is likely to be Germany’s next chancellor, is campaigning on a reform agenda, promising to cut red tape and taxes and dial back welfare benefits for people who are not working.

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While private sector output contracted, government consumption rose sharply by 2.6 per cent compared with 2023.

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Ruth Brand, president of the Federal Statistics Office, blamed “cyclical and structural pressures” for the poor performance, pointing to “increasing competition for the German export industry, high energy costs, an interest rate level that remains high and an uncertain economic outlook.”

In the three months to December, output fell by 0.1 per cent compared with the third quarter.

Robin Winkler, chief economist for Germany at Deutsche Bank, said the contraction in the fourth quarter came as a “surprise” and was “concerning”.

“If this is confirmed, the economy would have lost further momentum by the end of the year,” he said, suggesting this was probably driven by “political uncertainty in Berlin and Washington”.

The Bundesbank said last month that stagnation was set to continue this year, predicting growth of just 0.1 per cent and warning that a trade war with the US would trigger another year of economic contraction.

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US president-elect Donald Trump has pledged to impose blanket tariffs of up to 20 per cent on all US imports.

Germany is struggling with a crisis in its automotive industry fuelled by Chinese competition and an expensive transition to electric cars, alongside high energy costs and tepid consumer demand.

Output in manufacturing contracted by 3 per cent, the statistics office said on Wednesday, while corporate investment fell by 2.8 per cent.

Germany has in effect seen no meaningful economic growth since the start of the pandemic, with industrial production hovering more than 10 per cent below its peak while unemployment has started to rise again after it fell to record lows.

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