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Trump faces a tighter race with Kamala Harris set to replace Biden, experts say

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Trump faces a tighter race with Kamala Harris set to replace Biden, experts say

US Vice President Kamala Harris holds a campaign event that is her seventh visit to North Carolina this year and 15th trip to the state since taking office in Fayetteville NC, United States on July 18, 2024.

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President Joe Biden’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for president has set the stage for a much tighter and uncertain race in November, according to some experts

Biden stepped down from the race Sunday as top Democrats pressured him to drop out following a disastrous debate performance and as Republican nominee Donald Trump was leading in the polls.

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The Democrats had been headed for a “landslide defeat” in November, but now, they stand a chance, said Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group.

“They’ve turned [this race] around, and President Biden has given the Democrats a fighting chance,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Monday.

Harris now finds herself on a glidepath to the Democratic nomination, though she will still need to win a majority of delegates ahead of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August. 

While some other contenders might throw their hat into the race, “it is very clear that Kamala Harris is the prohibitive favorite to become the nominee,” Bremmer said. 

If Harris wins the nomination, she would offer the Democrats a “total reset,” Steven Okun, founder and CEO of APAC Advisors, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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“If the Democrats can be unified, come out of this convention, speaking with one voice, energized, excited, then they have a good chance to win in November,” he said.

Allan Lichtman, a presidential historian who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, told CNBC’s “Capital Connection that Harris would be in a “strong position to win the upcoming election” in a match-up with Trump.

He will wait until the Democratic convention to make his official prediction.

Harris said in a post on social media platform X that she was looking to work to “earn and win” the nomination while uniting Democrats.

How Harris helps Democrats

According to experts that spoke to CNBC, Harris comes with a number of advantages in comparison to her former running mate. 

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While Republicans have been gaining ground on the economy, inflation, and immigration fronts, abortion is a salient issue where she will have an edge, Okun said. Harris has been outspoken on reproductive issues as the first women Vice President.

“The fact is that Biden and Trump are too old to be running and serving for another four years, and this is now the top vulnerability for Trump,” said Eurasia’s Bremmer.  

A recent poll showed that some 85% of the population believed Biden was too old to serve another four years. The same poll found that 60% of Americans thought Trump was too old.

Democrats have good chance of winning if they're united and speak with one voice: McLarty Associates

“You see a lot of enthusiasm for Harris, a younger, more vibrant, more energetic former prosecutor that could certainly perform extremely well on the debate stage,” Bremmer added. 

Bremmer pointed out that Harris also has some weaknesses. She “isn’t super likable as a retail politician … That’s been a vulnerability for her.”  There are also some risks associated with running as a woman — a daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father — in today’s America, he added.

On the other hand, she may be better-positioned than Biden to drive out certain key demographics, including “women, young people and black voters, Charles Myers, Signum Global policy Founder and CEO, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

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“It’s a whole new race. There’s a new candidate with an enormous amount of unity and enthusiasm behind her,” he said.

Greater uncertainty for markets 

Markets had increasingly been pricing in a Trump victory, with his presidency expected to bring in tax cuts and a stronger tariff policy. 

However, according to Myers, the race has been thrown into “complete disarray” with Harris set to give Trump a “real run for his money.”

“I’d be very wary and a bit cautious on assuming that Trump is just going to sail to victory,” Myers said, adding that the names and asset classes associated with a Trump victory could be perceived as having short-term risk. 

Kamala Harris might be better for business and M&A than Biden, says Jim Cramer

Trump has said that Harris would be easier to defeat compared to Biden. 

By the Democratic Convention, Harris would have picked a running mate and likely wrapped up the nomination, at which point the momentum could see her pull ahead in the polls, Myers said. 

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According to Okun, two likely frontrunners for Harris’s running mate are Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona, as they come from key swing states and are seen as more moderate.

If the Democrats are unable to unify factions within the party such as moderates and progressives, they will lose to a Republican party that is completely unified around Trump, he added.

CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

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US says Kuwait accidentally shot down 3 American jets

The U.S. and Israel have been conducting strikes against targets in Iran since Saturday morning, with the aim of toppling Tehran’s clerical regime. Iran has fired back, with retaliatory assaults featuring missiles and drones targeting several Gulf countries and American bases in the Middle East.

“All six aircrew ejected safely, have been safely recovered, and are in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” Central Command said.

“The cause of the incident is under investigation. Additional information will be released as it becomes available,” it added.

In a separate statement later Monday, Central Command said that American forces had been killed during combat since the strikes began.

“As of 7:30 am ET, March 2, four U.S. service members have been killed in action. The fourth service member, who was seriously wounded during Iran’s initial attacks, eventually succumbed to their injuries,” it said.

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Major combat operations continue and our response effort is ongoing. The identities of the fallen are being withheld until 24 hours after next of kin notification,” Central Command added.

This story has been updated.

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Satellite images provide view inside Iran at war

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Satellite images provide view inside Iran at war

Smoke rises over Konarak naval base in southern Iran on Sunday. The base was one of hundreds of targets of U.S. and Israeli forces throughout the country.

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Commercial satellite images are providing a unique look at the extent of damage being done to Iran’s military facilities across the country.

The U.S. and Israeli military campaign opened with a daytime attack that struck Iranian leadership in central Tehran. Smoke was still visible rising from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound following the attack that killed the supreme leader.

An image by the company Airbus taken on Saturday shows the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran's Leadership House in central Tehran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening wave of attacks.

An image by the company Airbus taken on Saturday shows the aftermath of an Israeli strike on Iran’s Leadership House in central Tehran. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening wave of attacks.

Pléiades Neo (c) Airbus DS 2026

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Israel and the U.S. have gone on to strike targets across the country. Reports on social media indicate that there have been numerous military bases and compounds attacked all over Iran, and Iran has responded with attacks throughout the Middle East.

U.S. forces have also been striking at Iran’s navy. In a post on his social media platform, President Trump said that he had been briefed that U.S. forces had sunk nine Iranian naval vessels. U.S. Central Command did not immediately confirm that number but it did say it had struck an Iranian warship in port.

An image captured on February 28 shows a ship burning at Iran's naval base at Konarak.

An image captured on Saturday shows a ship burning at Iran’s naval base at Konarak.

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Numerous satellite images show burning vessels at Konarak naval base in southern Iran. Images also show damage to a nearby airbase where hardened hangers were struck by precision munitions.

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Hardened aircraft shelters at Konarak Airbase were struck with precision munitions.

Hardened aircraft shelters at Konarak airbase were struck with precision munitions.

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And there was extensive damage at a drone base in the same area. Iran has launched numerous drones and missiles toward Israel and U.S. military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Many drones have been intercepted but videos on social media show that some have evaded air defenses and caused damage in nearby Gulf countries. In Dubai, debris from an Iranian drone damaged the iconic Burj Al Arab, according to a statement from Dubai’s government.

Buildings at an Iranian drone base at Konarak were destroyed in the strikes.

Buildings at an Iranian drone base at Konarak were destroyed in the strikes.

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Iran’s most powerful weapons are its long-range missiles. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards have hidden the missiles deep inside mountain tunnels. Images taken Sunday in the mountains of northern Iran indicate that some of those tunnels were hit in a wave of strikes.

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Following Khamenei’s death, Iran declared 40 days of mourning. Satellite images showed mourners gathering in Tehran’s Enghelab square on Sunday.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told NPR on Sunday that Iran will continue to fight “foreign aggression, foreign domination.”

A White House official told NPR that Trump plans to talk to Iran’s interim leadership “eventually,” but that for now, U.S. operations continue in the region “unabated.”

A large crowd of mourners fill Enghelab Square in Tehran on Sunday, following the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

A large crowd of mourners fill Enghelab Square in Tehran on Sunday, following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

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Video: What the Texas Primary Battle Means for the Midterms

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Video: What the Texas Primary Battle Means for the Midterms

new video loaded: What the Texas Primary Battle Means for the Midterms

The first battle of the midterm elections will be the U.S. Senate primary in Texas. Our Texas bureau chief, David Goodman, explains why Democrats and Republicans across the U.S. are watching closely to see what happens in the state.

By J. David Goodman, Alexandra Ostasiewicz, June Kim and Luke Piotrowski

March 1, 2026

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