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Tracking the Swing States for Harris and Trump
The presidential race will most likely come down to voters in 10 states that remain competitive, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report.
There are many combinations of states that could put either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all of the states in their solid, likely and lean categories, the race would come down to the six tossup states in yellow. Ms. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win. Mr. Trump would need just 35.
Michigan
15 D +2.8
Pennsylvania
19
D +1.2
Wisconsin 10
D +0.6
Georgia
16
D +0.2 Arizona
11
D +0.3
Nevada
6 D +2.4
Tossups
State
Elec. votes
2020 margin
2024 polling
Harris +1.5 ›
Trump +0.1 ›
Harris +1.8 ›
Not enough polls
Not enough polls
Not enough polls
The six states rated as tossups were all won narrowly by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. If the race comes down to these places, Mr. Trump has an advantage in the electoral math. He could win with just two electorally valuable tossup states — Pennsylvania and Georgia — while all of Ms. Harris’s paths to victory include at least three. If Mr. Trump loses Georgia but wins Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris would still need at least three other tossups (in addition to Georgia) to win.
Of course, some of the states currently rated as leaning or likely Democrat or Republican could also come into play.
Minnesota Minn.
10
D +7.1
Nebraska 2nd District
Neb. 2 1
D +6.5
New Hampshire
N.H.
4 D +0.4
North Carolina
N.C.
16 R +1.3
New Mexico
N.M.
5 D +10.8
Virginia
Va.
13
D +10.1 Maine
Maine
2
D +9.1
Florida
Fla.
30
R +3.4
Maine 2nd District Me. 2
1
R +7.9
Texas
Texas 40
R +5.6
Lean Democrat
State
E.V.
2020
Lean Republican
State
E.V.
2020
Likely Democrat
State
E.V.
2020
Likely Republican
State
E.V.
2020