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Tracking the Swing States for Harris and Trump

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The presidential race will most likely come down to voters in 10 states that remain competitive, according to the most recent ratings by the Cook Political Report.

Note: Nebraska and Maine each award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the top vote-getter in each congressional district. Nebraska’s Second District is rated as “Lean Democratic” by Cook Political Report.

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There are many combinations of states that could put either Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

If both candidates win all of the states in their solid, likely and lean categories, the race would come down to the six tossup states in yellow. Ms. Harris would need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win. Mr. Trump would need just 35.

Tossups

State Elec. votes 2020 margin 2024 polling

Michigan

15

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D +2.8

Harris +1.5 ›

Pennsylvania

19

D +1.2

Trump +0.1 ›

Wisconsin

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10

D +0.6

Harris +1.8 ›

Georgia

16

D +0.2

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Not enough polls

Arizona

11

D +0.3

Not enough polls

Nevada

6

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D +2.4

Not enough polls

The six states rated as tossups were all won narrowly by Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020. If the race comes down to these places, Mr. Trump has an advantage in the electoral math. He could win with just two electorally valuable tossup states — Pennsylvania and Georgia — while all of Ms. Harris’s paths to victory include at least three. If Mr. Trump loses Georgia but wins Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris would still need at least three other tossups (in addition to Georgia) to win.

Of course, some of the states currently rated as leaning or likely Democrat or Republican could also come into play.

Lean Democrat

State E.V. 2020

Minnesota

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Minn.

10

D +7.1

Nebraska 2nd District

Neb. 2

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1

D +6.5

New Hampshire

N.H.

4

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D +0.4

Lean Republican

State E.V. 2020

North Carolina

N.C.

16

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R +1.3

Likely Democrat

State E.V. 2020

New Mexico

N.M.

5

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D +10.8

Virginia

Va.

13

D +10.1

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Maine

Maine

2

D +9.1

Likely Republican

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State E.V. 2020

Florida

Fla.

30

R +3.4

Maine 2nd District

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Me. 2

1

R +7.9

Texas

Texas

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40

R +5.6

Note: Nebraska and Maine each award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one to the top vote-getter in each congressional district. Nebraska’s second district is rated as “Lean Democratic” by Cook Political Report.

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