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Top US general in Europe says there ‘could be’ an intelligence gap in US that caused US to overestimate Russia’s capabilities
When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine final month, US intelligence assessed that the country-wide assault might result in Kyiv falling into Russian palms inside days. However Russia’s navy has been slowed down across the capital because the warfare has entered its second month, beleaguered by sustainability and logistics issues, together with an surprising stiff resistance from Ukrainian fighters.
Testifying at a Senate Armed Companies Committee listening to Tuesday, US European Command chief Gen. Tod Wolters was requested by Sen. Roger Wicker, a Mississippi Republican, if there was an intelligence hole that brought on the US to overestimate Russia’s power and underestimate the Ukrainian defenses.
“There may very well be,” Wolters responded. “As we have all the time finished prior to now, when this disaster is over with, we are going to accomplish a complete after-action evaluation in all domains and in all departments and discover out the place our weak areas have been and ensure we will discover methods to enhance, and this may very well be a type of areas.”
Whereas US intelligence was spot on in predicting Russia was planning to invade Ukraine — which the Biden administration aggressively launched to show international sentiment towards the Kremlin — the intelligence neighborhood didn’t assess the poor efficiency of the Russian navy.
The US and NATO allies have continued to assist re-supply Ukraine’s navy with weapons, together with Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles which have been used towards Russian forces. Whereas estimates range extensively, sources acquainted with the estimates say 1000’s of Russian troops have been killed within the battle. US officers say they’ve anecdotal proof of morale issues within the Russian navy.
At a Senate Intelligence Committee listening to earlier this month, Director of Nationwide Intelligence Avril Haines stated that the US intelligence neighborhood assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin was underestimating the possible resistance he would face from the Ukrainians forward of the invasion.”
“I believe we did nicely there,” she stated. “We didn’t do as nicely when it comes to predicting the navy challenges that he has encountered along with his personal navy.”
Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, the pinnacle of the Protection Intelligence Company, stated that US intelligence assessments earlier than the invasion have been based mostly on a lot of elements, together with that the Ukrainians have been “not as prepared as I believed they need to be.”
“Due to this fact, I questioned their will to battle. That was a nasty evaluation on my half, as a result of they’ve fought bravely and honorably and are doing the correct factor,” he stated.
Requested by Arkansas GOP Sen. Tom Cotton about assessments on how lengthy Kyiv would maintain out or how lengthy Ukraine might keep its air defenses, Berrier stated the intelligence neighborhood “made some assumptions about (Putin’s) assumptions, which proved to be very, very flawed.”
“His precise exercise as he acquired into this battle turned his operation type of on its head,” Berrier stated of Putin. “And what we have seen is a devolvement, if you’ll, of the operations that he has occurring now.”