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The US had an exceptionally good inflation report. Now what?

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The US had an exceptionally good inflation report. Now what?

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Good morning. Yesterday, Unhedged wrote about Nvidia scepticism. Its shares promptly fell 5.6 per cent. Coincidence? Oh, absolutely. For the real reason the shares fell, read on.

I will be on holiday next week, and Unhedged will appear only on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, written by my brilliant colleagues. Email me anytime: robert.armstrong@ft.com.

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Inflation

We’re there. But will we stay?

Inflation — at least the way Unhedged likes to measure it — was not just cool but downright cold in June. Below is the growth in the core CPI index, on a monthly basis, annualised. June was below 1 per cent, and the three-month average is only a hair above 2 per cent. Huzzah!

The most important subplot in this uplifting story is housing inflation, which had been the most recalcitrant bit of the price index. It plummeted in June, finally confirming the message that more timely private measures have been sending for a long while.

Line chart of CPI shelter inflation, month-over-month % change, annualised  showing This is good, II

It is not quite time for the Federal Reserve chair to string up the “Mission Accomplished” banner across the bridge of the central bank’s aircraft carrier, however. One month is not enough. High inflation comes in waves historically and the monetary policy committee will, rightly, demand confirmation before changing monetary policy. And this month was probably exceptionally good. Preston Caldwell of Morningstar points out that three biggish volatile categories — airfares, hotel rates and used cars — fell sharply in unison. If they had been flat, the month-over-month reading would have looked a lot like May’s. That said, they weren’t flat, and May’s reading was very good, too.

In response, the futures market pushed the implied probability of a rate cut in September to 91 per cent, from 55 per cent at the start of July. Both short- and long-term Treasuries rallied, and the yield curve steepened slightly. But the really interesting response was in the stock market. Nvidia fell nearly 6 per cent and other chipmakers followed. Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon all fell by 2 per cent or more. Small-cap indices popped. A flight to risk, surely. But rate sensitivities are a crucial part of that. Here is a look at the performance of the S&P 500 sectors yesterday:

Bar chart of S&P 500 sector % price return showing Cyclicals up, tech down

The top performer, real estate, is a debt-dependent industry that has been crushed by high rates. Utilities are bond substitutes and therefore rate sensitive. The sigh of relief from both is predictable. The next three, materials, industrials and energy are capital intensive and cyclical. The three bottom performers, by contrast, have heavy exposure to the magnificent seven, where, as it turns out, some investors have been looking for a reason to take profits.

It is just one day, but this has the makings of a rotation in market leadership. The moves make me think that a significant part of the tech/AI rally has been driven by fear, not exuberance. Investors are looking for somewhere to hide from the inevitable, if delayed, damage done by high interest rates.

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That damage, or rather avoiding it, will be on the minds of Powell and his colleagues as they decide when to cut rates. The only parts of the economy to feel real pain to date are real estate, housing, construction and the most indebted consumers. But more pain may follow in the months to come; the yield curve remains very much inverted. The decisive signal will be the labour market. So now a familiar question takes on renewed relevance. Is the slowdown in the labour market post-pandemic normalisation, or the start of something more worrisome?

This debate will be fought between those who focus on levels and those who focus on the direction of change. The unemployment rate has risen from 3.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent since January, driven entirely by more people entering the workforce and seeking jobs. That’s a notable increase. But 4.1 is still a low level by historical standards. Similarly, job growth, wage growth and hires cool with almost every passing month, but are still fine by pre-pandemic standards. I would tend not to worry much about any of this, were it not for the inverted curve and softness in the employment sections of both the services and manufacturing ISM surveys.

It is a tough set of data to read in the shadow of the pandemic. But there is enough there to get the Fed thinking about the employment side of its mandate. The market looks about right on that September cut.

One good read

Aristotle in the office.

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Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy loses in Republican primary, does not advance to runoff

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Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy loses in Republican primary, does not advance to runoff

One observer of the current Senate race in Louisiana noted that Sen. Bill Cassidy could lose his reelection bid.

Annie Flanagan for NPR


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Annie Flanagan for NPR

Sen. Bill Cassidy lost Saturday’s Louisiana Republican primary according to a race call by the Associated Press.

Cassidy, who served two terms in the Senate, was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict President Trump after the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol. That vote put him at odds with Trump and his MAGA coalition, ultimately leading Trump to push Rep. Julia Letlow to run against Cassidy.

Cassidy’s bid for a third term was viewed as a test of Trump’s grip on the party–and of what voters want from their representatives in Washington. The primary pitted Cassidy, a veteran lawmaker, former physician and chair of the powerful Senate health committee, against Letlow, a political newcomer and a millennial MAGA loyalist.

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A detailed view of a hat that reads, Run Julia Run, is seen at a campaign event for Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) on May 6, 2026 in Franklinton, Louisiana.

A detailed view of a hat that reads, Run Julia Run, is seen at a campaign event for Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA) on May 6, 2026 in Franklinton, Louisiana.

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A former college administrator, Letlow won a special election in 2021 for the House seat her late husband, Luke, was set to assume before he died from COVID in 2020.

In Congress, Letlow sponsored a bill to collect oral histories from the pandemic and has focused on education and children. She introduced the “Parents Bill of Rights Act,” which would allow parents to review classroom materials like library books and require schools to notify parents if their child requests different pronouns, locker rooms or sports teams.

She also serves on the powerful appropriations committee and has embraced Trump’s agenda.

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Letlow, who came first in Saturday’s primary, will face Louisiana state Treasurer John Fleming in the runoff on June 27. Cassidy came in third.

The election result is a victory for President Trump who has put Republican loyalty to the test on the ballot so far this year in Indiana state senate primaries and in Cassidy’s race.

Another major test of Trump’s influence comes in Kentucky’s primary on Tuesday when Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, who has found himself at odds with the president, faces a challenger endorsed by Trump.

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Brass bands in Beijing make way for sticker shock at home as Trump returns to escalating inflation

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Brass bands in Beijing make way for sticker shock at home as Trump returns to escalating inflation

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump returned from the spectacle of a Chinese state visit to a less than welcoming U.S. economy — with the military band and garden tour in Beijing giving way to pressure over how to fix America’s escalating inflation rate.

Consumer inflation in the United States increased to 3.8% annually in April, higher than what he inherited as the Iran war and the Republican president’s own tariffs have pushed up prices. Inflation is now outpacing wage gains and effectively making workers poorer. The Cleveland Federal Reserve estimates that annual inflation could reach 4.2% in May as the war has kept oil and gasoline prices high.

Trump’s time with Chinese leader Xi Jinping appears unlikely to help the U.S. economy much, despite Trump’s claims of coming trade deals. The trip occurred as many people are voting in primaries leading into the November general election while having to absorb the rising costs of gasoline, groceries, utility bills, jewelry, women’s clothing, airplane tickets and delivery services. Democrats see the moment as a political opportunity.

“He’s returning to a dumpster fire,” said Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, a liberal think tank focused on economic issues. “The president will not have the faith and confidence of the American people — the economy is their top issue and the president is saying, ‘You’re on your own.’”

The president’s trip to Beijing and his recent comments that indicated a tone-deafness to voters’ concerns about rising prices have suggested his focus is not on the American public and have undermined Republicans who had intended to campaign on last year’s tax cuts as helping families.

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Trump described the trip as a victory, saying on social media that Xi “congratulated me on so many tremendous successes,” as the U.S. president has praised their relationship.

Trump told reporters that Boeing would be selling 200 aircraft — and maybe even 750 “if they do a good job” — to the Chinese. He said American farmers would be “very happy” because China would be “buying billions of dollars of soybeans.”

“We had an amazing time,” Trump said as he flew home on Air Force One, and told Fox News’ Bret Baier in an interview that gasoline prices were just some “short-term pain” and would “drop like a rock” once the war ends.

Inflationary pain is not a factor in how Trump handles Iran

Trump departed from the White House for China by saying the negotiations over the Iran war depended on stopping Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said.

That remark prompted blowback because it suggested to some that Trump cared more about challenging Iran than fighting inflation at home. Trump defended his words, telling Fox News: “That’s a perfect statement. I’d make it again.”

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The White House has since stressed that Trump is focused on inflation.

Asked later about the president’s words, Vice President JD Vance said there had been a “misrepresentation” of the remarks. White House spokesman Kush Desai said the “administration remains laser-focused on delivering growth and affordability on the homefront” while indicating actions would be taken on grocery prices.

But as Trump appeared alongside Xi, new reports back home showed inflation rising for businesses and interest rates climbing on U.S. government debt.

His comments that Boeing would sell 200 jets to China caused the company’s stock price to fall because investors had expected a larger number. There was little concrete information offered about any trade agreements reached during the summit, including Chinese purchases of U.S. exports such as liquefied natural gas and beef.

“Foreign policy wins can matter politically, but only if voters feel stability and affordability in their daily lives,” said Brittany Martinez, a former Republican congressional aide who is the executive director of Principles First, a center-right advocacy group focused on democracy issues.

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“Midterms are almost always a referendum on cost of living and public frustration, and Republicans are not immune from the same inflation and affordability pressures that hurt Democrats in recent cycles,” she added.

Democrats see Trump as vulnerable

Democratic lawmakers are seizing on Trump’s comments before his trip as proof of his indifference to lowering costs. There is potential staying power of his remarks as Americans head into Memorial Day weekend facing rising prices for the hamburgers and hot dogs to be grilled.

“What Americans do not see is any sympathy, any support, or any plan from Trump and congressional Republicans to lower costs – in fact, they see the opposite,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Thursday.

Vance faulted the Biden administration for the inflation problem even though the inflation rate is now higher than it was when Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 with a specific mandate to fix it.

“The inflation number last month was not great,” Vance said Wednesday, but he then stressed, “We’re not seeing anything like what we saw under the Biden administration.”

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Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 under Biden, a Democrat. By the time Trump took the oath of office, it was a far more modest 3%.

Trump’s inflation challenge could get harder

The data tells a different story as higher inflation is spreading into the cost of servicing the national debt.

Over the past week, the interest rate charged on 10-year U.S. government debt jumped from 4.36% to 4.6%, an increase that implies higher costs for auto loans and mortgages.

“My fear is that the layers of supply shocks that are affecting the U.S. economy will only further feed into inflationary pressures,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

Daco noted that last year’s tariff increases were now translating into higher clothing prices. With the Supreme Court ruling against Trump’s ability to impose tariffs by declaring an economic emergency, his administration is preparing a new set of import taxes for this summer.

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Daco stressed that there have been a series of supply shocks. First, tariffs cut into the supply of imports. In addition, Trump’s immigration crackdown cut into the supply of foreign-born workers. Now, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off the vital waterway used to ship 20% of global oil supplies.

“We’re seeing an erosion of growth,” Daco said.

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Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.

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Top Drug Regulator Is Fired From the F.D.A.

Dr. Tracy Beth Hoeg, the Food and Drug Administration’s top drug regulator, said she was fired from the agency Friday after she declined to resign.

She said she did not know who had ordered her firing or why, nor whether Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. knew of her fate. The Department of Health and Human Services did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The departure reflected the upheaval at the F.D.A., days after the resignation of Dr. Marty Makary, the agency commissioner. Dr. Makary had become a lightning rod for critics of the agency’s decisions to reject applications for rare disease drugs and to delay a report meant to supply damaging evidence about the abortion drug mifepristone. He also spent months before his departure pushing back on the White House’s requests for him to approve more flavored vapes, the reason he ultimately cited for leaving.

Dr. Hoeg’s hiring had startled public health leaders who were familiar with her track record as a vaccine skeptic, and she played a leading role in some of the agency’s most divisive efforts during her tenure. She worked on a report that purportedly linked the deaths of children and young adults to Covid vaccines, a dossier the agency has not released publicly. She was also the co-author of a document describing Mr. Kennedy’s decision to pare the recommendations for 17 childhood vaccines down to 11.

But in an interview on Friday, Dr. Hoeg said she “stuck with the science.”

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“I am incredibly proud of the work we were doing,” Dr. Hoeg said, adding, “I’m glad that we didn’t give in to any pressures to approve drugs when it wasn’t appropriate.”

As the director of the agency’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, she was a political appointee in a role that had been previously occupied by career officials. An epidemiologist who was trained in the United States and Denmark, she worked on efforts to analyze drug safety and on a panel to discuss the use of serotonin reuptake inhibitors, the most widely prescribed class of antidepressants, during pregnancy. She also worked on efforts to reduce animal testing and was the agency’s liaison to an influential vaccine committee.

She made sure that her teams approved drugs only when the risk-benefit balance was favorable, she said.

The firing worsens the leadership vacuum at the F.D.A. and other agencies, with temporary leaders filling the role of commissioner, food chief and the head of the biologics center, which oversees vaccines and gene therapies. The roles of surgeon general and director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are also unfilled.

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