The Democrat the White House Fears the Most

This month, after The New York Occasions first reported that U.S. officers had been visiting Caracas to discover talks with oil-rich Venezuela, the diplomatic gambit drew an offended response from one senator specifically.

“The democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan individuals,” Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey mentioned in a blistering assertion, “are price a lot quite a lot of thousand barrels of oil.”

These had been harsh phrases coming from a member of the president’s personal social gathering, who was livid that he hadn’t been adequately consulted on the journey. However they had been emblematic of the extraordinary affect the New Jersey Democrat wields over a few of the most politically radioactive matters in U.S. international coverage, present and former lawmakers, officers and Senate aides say. The administration rapidly denied accusations that the Caracas journey was a part of an effort to search out new provides of power to interchange Russian oil or to undercut the Venezuelan opposition.

“There isn’t a dialogue between us and the regime,” Jen Psaki, the White Home press secretary, mentioned below questioning from reporters.

The episode is just the latest instance of how Menendez, who chairs the Senate International Relations Committee, is ready to outline the boundaries of what’s acceptable on topics from Iran to Venezuela. He’s plugged in with Washington-savvy pro-Israel teams and with the politically energetic Cuban- and Venezuelan-American communities in South Florida. Generally in sync with the administration and sometimes at odds with it, he’s all the time to be dealt with with a wholesome quantity of respect and concern.

“He’s anyone that you simply want in your aspect it doesn’t matter what, so that they’re very cautious,” mentioned Juan Cruz, who served as a senior director for the Western Hemisphere through the Trump administration.

Final 12 months, in a measure of the deference given to Menendez, the White Home allowed him to counsel who ought to and shouldn’t be invited to an occasion with President Biden. The three people Menendez nixed had been critics of the decades-old financial embargo of Cuba, which many on the left view for instance of a failed, right-wing coverage.

“Menendez has a really moralistic and rigid view on the usage of sanctions to punish and enhance human rights, no matter proof,” mentioned Christopher Sabatini, a senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham Home, a assume tank in London.

On the similar time, Menendez has been an important administration ally on a lot of Biden’s priorities, from clearing a path for dozens of appointees Republicans have tried to dam to fostering a bipartisan consensus on the Ukraine warfare. Prime administration officers seek the advice of with Menendez a number of instances a month. His relationship with Biden can be an unlimited enchancment over the tension-filled Obama period, allies mentioned.

“Chairman Menendez is a associate on our international coverage targets and this administration advantages from his counsel,” mentioned Adrienne Watson, a spokeswoman for the White Home’s Nationwide Safety Council.

In response to questions on tensions with the Biden administration, Menendez’s workplace pushed again onerous on the notion that he approached the job of chairman any otherwise than he had below earlier presidents of each events.

The subsequent showdown with Menendez: Iran

Menendez’s clout could quickly be examined anew if and when the administration unveils its long-awaited reset of the Iran nuclear deal.

In latest days, officers have briefed members of Home and Senate committees in regards to the standing of the talks in Vienna, and particulars of the 25-page settlement have begun to spill out in newspaper accounts.

One of many ultimate obstacles, in response to those that have attended the briefings, is Iran’s demand that the U.S. not designate the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps as a international terrorist group.

Doing so would imply little in a sensible sense as a result of different sanctions on the group nonetheless apply, proponents of a deal say. However the Biden administration would wish to expend valuable political capital defending the transfer at a time when it has little to spare.

“I’d wish to see what which means in observe,” mentioned Consultant Tom Malinowski, Democrat of New Jersey, who mentioned he was ready to see the textual content of an settlement. “However as soon as Iran will get the bomb, our skill to confront their different malign actions might be diminished.”

Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat of Connecticut, mentioned in an interview that he’d seen “bone-chilling” assessments of how shut Iran is to producing weapons-grade uranium. Others who’ve been briefed on the U.S. intelligence assessments say Iran may produce sufficient fissile materials for a nuclear weapon in as little as two weeks, escalating the chance that Israel may take army motion.

“The results of no deal are horrific,” Murphy mentioned. “And there’s no different sensible path to cease Iran from getting a nuclear weapon aside from diplomacy.”

The primary purpose the disaster has reached this level, advocates of a deal say, is Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the unique nuclear deal, which allowed Iran to maintain enriching uranium previous agreed-upon ranges.

However the Biden administration additionally moved too slowly to interact Tehran upon coming into workplace, fearing Menendez-led blowback on Capitol Hill.

“It didn’t wish to lose fence-sitters in Congress,” mentioned Ali Vaez, an Iran knowledgeable on the Worldwide Disaster Group.

Now {that a} deal is shut, administration officers are being cagey about whether or not they imagine Congress should be allowed to evaluate its phrases. Below a bipartisan regulation handed in 2015, the Iran Nuclear Settlement Overview Act, the administration should submit the textual content of any “new” settlement to congressional oversight.

Menendez, who opposed the unique nuclear settlement in 2015 and has criticized the present deal below dialogue, has signaled he’ll insist on the Senate having its say. In February, he teamed up with Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican of South Carolina, to suggest his personal diplomatic answer to the nuclear standoff.

“There isn’t a probability in bringing Senator Menendez on board, and the choice that he gives is unworkable for the administration,” Vaez mentioned. “I feel it’s a misplaced trigger.”

State Division officers warning that “an settlement is neither imminent nor sure,” as one put it. The administration can be nonetheless analyzing its authorized choices concerning congressional evaluate of a possible deal, which could not technically qualify as “new.”

If an Iran deal is put to a vote within the Senate, Menendez’s response might be essential. Republicans most certainly will uniformly oppose it. The administration can nonetheless afford to lose a handful of Democrats, as a result of solely 41 votes could be wanted to permit a revived settlement to proceed. However it may take some arm twisting to spherical up sufficient votes to win.

Ben Cardin, the hawkish Maryland senator, has already expressed considerations about delisting the Revolutionary Guards. Different influential Democrats on the Senate International Relations Committee, comparable to Chris Coons of Delaware, have mentioned little in help of a contemporary deal.

A defeat within the Senate may deal the president a dangerous blow on considered one of his signature international coverage initiatives, supporters of the talks warn. And given Iran’s speedy advance towards producing weapons-grade uranium, ought to diplomacy fail, the president might be going through the prospect of a brand new battle within the Center East on high of a grinding warfare in Ukraine.

If there isn’t a deal, Vaez mentioned, “I feel this may escalate in a short time and the specter of warfare will emerge as quickly because the spring.”

What to learn

Closing phase

We interrupt this program

It’s actually not uncommon for a senator questioning a nominee to interrupt. At one level through the Supreme Court docket affirmation hearings this morning, Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, did simply that, apologizing to Decide Ketanji Brown Jackson as he did so and explaining he had solely 4 minutes left.

However Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, took it to a different degree — one which made the interruptions themselves, not the content material of the questions and solutions, the principle characteristic of his line of questioning.

Throughout Graham’s trade with Jackson on Wednesday, she requested for permission to talk a number of instances, with Senator Richard J. Durbin, a Democrat and the chair of the Judiciary Committee, often hopping in to assist. When Jackson did communicate, Graham shook his head dismissively or fidgeted in his chair, attempting to leap in.

Towards the tip of his line of questioning, our colleague Catie Edmondson described “audible groaning and noises of protest from lots of the spectators” as Graham interrupted her. When his time was up, he left the dais.

Senator Ted Cruz, Republican of Texas, later tried to one-up Graham, refusing to cease speaking when his time was up. When he requested Durbin why he wouldn’t enable his final query, Durbin mentioned, “You wouldn’t enable her” to reply anyway.

And what was Cruz’s excuse for extra time? Durbin wouldn’t cease interrupting him.

Thanks for studying. We’ll see you tomorrow.

— Blake & Leah

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