Thailand’s elevation of its youngest-ever prime minister last week averted an immediate crisis, but the new administration could rekindle old strains between the country’s most influential political family and its powerful royalist-military elite.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the 38-year-old scion of Thailand’s Shinawatra clan, was appointed premier last week following the sudden dismissal of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, by the constitutional court over an ethics breach.
Her election by parliament has preserved a shaky alliance between the Shinawatras’ Pheu Thai party and its historic rivals aligned with the royalist-military establishment at a crucial time for Thailand, as south-east Asia’s second-largest economy struggles to mount a recovery following the pandemic.
But analysts and political observers are questioning how long Paetongtarn, a political newcomer, will manage to remain in power. The conservative elite has repeatedly removed elected prime ministers through military coups and court verdicts.
“Although Paetongtarn will likely survive in the role for the near term at least, she faces considerable risk of ouster by the establishment,” said Peter Mumford, south-east Asia head at Eurasia Group.
Paetongtarn’s election capped a rapid ascent. The new premier, who has never held political office, is the youngest child of populist former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire telecommunications tycoon who was ousted in a 2006 coup and has dominated the Thai political landscape for the past 20 years. Thaksin’s sister Yingluck also served as prime minister before being deposed by the conservative elite.
Thaksin, 75, does not have an official position in the new government, but he has played an increasingly active public role since returning to Thailand last year from 15 years of self-imposed exile, and could wield more influence in his daughter’s administration.
A rejuvenated Shinawatra clan is unlikely to be welcomed by the royalist-military establishment, which has maintained its grip on power despite repeated election losses.
“While many anti-Thaksin conservatives will be angered by a Shinawatra running the country again, others likely wanted Thaksin to put his family on the line, perhaps feeling that it gives them more leverage over him,” Mumford said, noting “Thaksin’s penchant for meddling and overreaching”.
Paetongtarn has inherited a coalition government that was an unlikely marriage of convenience. Srettha, a former property tycoon and ally of the Shinawatras, was seen as a compromise between Pheu Thai and military-backed parties keen to block the progressive Move Forward party from power.
Move Forward, which won the most seats in last year’s election, had campaigned on a platform of wide-reaching reforms, including to the country’s notorious lèse majesté law. The party was dissolved this month by the constitutional court, which said Move Forward’s policies amounted to an attempt to overthrow Thailand’s political system as a constitutional monarchy.
The truce enabled Thaksin’s return from exile, where he was avoiding a prison sentence on corruption and abuse of power charges, but signals are rising that the fragile détente is fraying. Srettha was dismissed this month over the cabinet appointment of a former lawyer and Shinawatra ally who had been briefly imprisoned on charges of bribing a court official, a violation of the military-drafted constitution.
Thaksin was charged in May for allegedly insulting the country’s monarchy in 2015.
Paetongtarn’s premiership also faces its most likely challenge from the constitutional court, analysts said. Four Thaksin allies who have served as prime minister have been removed by the court in recent years. The court has also dissolved previous incarnations of Thaksin’s party and Move Forward, forcing them to reconstitute under new banners.
The country’s judiciary has become “part and parcel of the royalist establishment”, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University, citing the dissolution of election-winning parties and rulings favouring the elite. “What we are seeing is a judicial overdrive and there will be repercussions.”
Analysts said one threat to Paetongtarn could be a $14bn cash handout scheme, a campaign pledge central to Srettha’s ambitions to reinvigorate Thailand’s economy, which has, with an annual growth rate of just 2 per cent, lagged behind regional peers.
The plan would see the government give one-off payments of 10,000 baht ($290) to about 50mn low-income citizens via a digital wallet. But it has been repeatedly delayed by legal and financial obstacles, as well as opposition from the central bank, which favours structural reform to address weak productivity and an ageing population over stimulus measures to spur consumer spending.
Paetongtarn has said she will examine the policy to ensure it complies with Thailand’s fiscal discipline law, but economists say its prospects are increasingly dim.
Populist policies have doomed previous Pheu Thai governments. Yingluck was impeached by the parliament in 2015 for alleged mismanagement of a rice subsidy scheme, months after she was ousted in a military coup.
“For a political party to advertise populism can be a constitutional ‘no-no’,” said Paul Chambers at Thailand’s Naresuan University. “That’s what has bedevilled the Pheu Thai party.”