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People are having fewer kids. Their choice is transforming the world’s economy
Ashley and Nick Evancho’s 3-year-old daughter, Sophia, plays with their dog in front of their home near Buffalo, N.Y. Ashley and Nick have decided to have only one child, a choice many people are making around the world. The trend is triggering an unprecedented shift toward rapidly aging and gradually shrinking populations.
Lauren Petracca for NPR
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Lauren Petracca for NPR
Families in the U.S. and around the world are having fewer children as people make profoundly different decisions about their lives. NPR’s series Population Shift: How Smaller Families Are Changing the World explores the causes and implications of this trend.
Ashley and Nick Evancho say raising their 3-year-old, Sophia, is one of the most joyous things they’ve ever done. “Watching my daughter run around in the yard is otherworldly for me,” Ashley said on a recent afternoon in their home in Grand Island, a suburb of Buffalo, N.Y.
But the Evanchos also made a decision that’s increasingly common for families in the U.S. and around the world: One is enough.
“I don’t need another one. I don’t want another one. I love having only one child,” said Ashley Evancho, who works as a financial planner.
Her husband, Nick, an Episcopal priest, agreed that big families make less sense in today’s economy. “It really stacks the chips economically against you,” he said.
Sophia and her mom play together at home. “I don’t need another one. I don’t want another one. I love having only one child,” Ashley Evancho told NPR.
Lauren Petracca for NPR
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Lauren Petracca for NPR
Worldwide, the number of children born to the average family has dropped by more than half since the 1970s, according to the latest United Nations data. Economists say having fewer children is the norm for many families, especially in relatively prosperous countries like the U.S.
The trend is leading to populations that are dramatically older, and beginning to shrink, in many of the world’s biggest economies.

“This demographic issue is poised to potentially remake so much of our society,” said Melissa Kearney, an economist at the University of Notre Dame.
Experts say a rapidly aging and gradually shrinking population in the world’s wealthiest countries could force sweeping changes in people’s lives, causing many to work longer before retirement, making it harder for business owners to find employees and destabilizing eldercare and health insurance programs.
Already, women in the 15 countries that account for 75% of global gross domestic product, including the U.S., are having too few children to maintain a stable population. Many of those nations have fallen into the “very low” category of “total fertility rate” identified by the U.N. as a serious concern.
“For the countries below 1.4 births per woman, we see much faster population decline and a pronounced shift in the population age distribution to the older ages,” said Vladimíra Kantorová, the U.N.’s chief population scientist. The rate of births per woman in the U.S. dropped to 1.6 in 2024, the lowest ever.
In China, Japan, Italy and South Korea, deaths already outpace births. Demographers say more high-income countries would face population decline, if not for high rates of immigration.
“We seem to be kind of watching a science fiction novel,” said Nicholas Eberstadt, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank in Washington, D.C.
According to Eberstadt, worker shortages, shrinking numbers of young consumers and a growing wave of elderly retirees relying on pension and health care systems could challenge basic assumptions about global capitalism. This trend is being heightened by the fact that people in the U.S. and many other countries are living longer. The global population of people age 80 or older will triple between 2020 and 2050, according to the World Health Organization.
“Turning the population pyramid upside down basically upsets the business model, the background music, that we’ve had in modern life for as long as we can remember,” he said.
In one U.S. town, plenty of jobs and few young workers
Some parts of the U.S. are already feeling the population shift as communities age and begin to shrink. In Franklin County, N.Y., where storefronts sit empty in Malone, the county seat, the population has declined by roughly 10% since 2010. Half the counties in the U.S. now have more elderly retirees than children, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.
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Brian Mann/NPR
In the U.S., the world’s largest economy, this trend has been building for decades. Families started shrinking in the 1960s, when the average American woman had between three and four children.
Now, according to U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Reserve Bank data, the typical woman will have one or two children in her lifetime, with a growing number of families opting for no children at all.
“I think it raises questions about do we want to be a more dynamic, forward-looking economy where people are optimistic about the future and about their ability to have kids?” said Kearney at Notre Dame.
With fewer children being born, population growth in the U.S. has already slowed. The population is expected to begin shrinking later this century, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections. Americans are also significantly older, with the median age rising from 28.1 in 1970 to a record high last year of 39.1.
Many communities, especially in rural America, already face serious demographic challenges.
“The decline here you see started a long time ago,” said Jeremy Evans, head of the Franklin County Industrial Development Agency in rural upstate New York.
Jeremy Evans heads the Franklin County Industrial Development Agency. In developing a new economic plan for his community, Evans concluded that population loss, especially the declining population of young people, is the top concern. In many parts of the U.S., elderly retirees outnumber children.
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Franklin County, which lies near the U.S.-Canada border, has lost roughly 10% of its population since 2010. Some of that is due to young people leaving, but so few babies are born here that the local hospital closed its maternity ward three years ago.
According to Evans, there are plenty of good jobs, with an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, but not enough workers to fill them. “It became obvious: We have to make this the No. 1 focus,” he said. “Our No. 1 mission is [attracting] 18-to-39-year-olds,” he said.
But economists say recruiting young people will get harder nationwide as smaller families continue to transform the American population. Last year, the number of children in the U.S. declined slightly, while the number of seniors surged to 61 million.
Eberstadt, at the American Enterprise Institute, thinks the population shift could destabilize key U.S. programs that underpin the economy, including Social Security and Medicare.
“The way public finances are organized makes no sense if you’re heading into an aging, shrinking world,” he said.
Many experts told NPR the shift toward an older, smaller population with fewer working-age residents will accelerate, if the U.S. maintains strict new limits on migrants imposed by the Trump administration.
For America’s trading partners, a demographic cliff
A man walks past a Human Resources and Social Security Bureau office, with the Chinese characters for “Social Security” visible in the background, on Sept. 2 in Chongqing, China. China’s population of retirees is expected to surge by more than 200 million people by 2050.
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If this demographic earthquake were only reshaping the U.S. economy, researchers say it would already pose serious challenges. But rapid aging and population decline are hitting America’s biggest trading partners far harder and much faster.
“If you live in Europe or parts of Asia, this [population shift] is everything,” said Lant Pritchett, a visiting professor at the London School of Economics.
He noted that basic assumptions about capitalism and economic growth evolved when nearly every country was experiencing rapid population increases. Now that era is over.
“Hard to tell what’s going to happen when things that have never happened before happen. We just don’t have any examples of countries doing this successfully,” Pritchett said.
This population shift is happening fastest and on the largest scale in China, the world’s second-biggest economy. According to Pritchett, China’s working-age population will crash by 2050, losing more than 211 million workers.
On a recent morning outside one of Beijing’s busy shopping malls, it was hard to see the massive change underway here. But Mia Li, 20, who works in China’s struggling real estate sector, said she’s already feeling it.
“Housing prices will fall and the number of homebuyers will decrease as well,” Li said. She doesn’t have children and worries that motherhood would be expensive and risky. “Having children requires financial support, but if the economy goes down, how can you possibly afford to raise them?”
Xiujian Peng, an expert on China’s population at Victoria University in Australia, said the economic impact of the trend could be profound.
“Population will decline very fast,” she said, adding that vast areas of rural China, home to many of the country’s elderly, could face “a huge problem.”
Fears of a backlash as countries adapt to fewer children
Ashley and Nick Evancho prepare dinner as Sophia plays in the kitchen. Nick Evancho told NPR that big families often make less sense in today’s economy. “It really stacks the chips economically against you,” he said.
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Lauren Petracca for NPR
Some researchers, including Harvard University economist Claudia Goldin, think fears about shrinking families are overblown. Goldin described much of the concern as a political backlash against high rates of immigration and women’s empowerment.
Asked about economic impacts of an aging, declining workforce, Goldin said, “I am not worried about that. Scarcity is everywhere; trade-offs are everywhere. There is no optimal birth rate.”
But many economists believe nations, and companies, that hope to remain stable and prosperous through this transition need to begin adapting. Some may be able to compensate by attracting more migrant workers or boosting the efficiency of the labor force through education, automation and AI.
Experts: Small families here to stay
In Greece, the birth rate is so low that the population is shrinking and aging. On the tiny Greek island of Thymaina, schoolchildren commute by ferry to another island as a decreasing birth rate has led to school closures.
Ayman Oghanna for NPR
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Ayman Oghanna for NPR
Many countries are also rolling out programs designed to encourage a return to larger families. The Trump administration included a modest package of incentives in this year’s budget, including an expanded child tax credit and a temporary program offering $1,000 investment accounts to babies born during Trump’s current term.
Some governments are going much further. Last month, the Greek government approved a multibillion-dollar tax package aimed at slowing Greece’s rapid depopulation.
“This is an existential problem for us,” Greece’s minister of economy and finance, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, said in an interview with NPR.
But many experts are skeptical of policies aimed at boosting birth rates. Past programs have shown limited or no success, apparently because much of the trend toward fewer children is driven by improvements in society — from economic progress for women to declining teen pregnancies.
“One thing about [smaller families] is that it’s all accounted for by good things, which means it’s not turning around,” said Pritchett, at the London School of Economics.
Ashley Evancho reads to Sophia before bed.
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Lauren Petracca for NPR
Ashley Evancho, the financial planner and mom who lives near Buffalo, agrees families like hers aren’t likely to have more kids, even if governments offer incentives and benefits.
“My opportunity cost, the opportunity cost to my career or my education [of having more children] is so much higher,” she said. “So the economy, the way it works, will probably have to fundamentally change.”
Reporting contributed by Jasmine Ling, NPR Beijing producer.
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Pregnant migrant girls are being sent to a Texas shelter flagged as medically risky
The Trump administration is sending pregnant unaccompanied minors to a South Texas shelter (above) flagged as medically inadequate by officials from the Office of Refugee Resettlement. The facility is run by a for-profit contractor called Urban Strategies.
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Patricia Lim/KUT News
The Trump administration is sending all pregnant unaccompanied minors apprehended by immigration enforcement to a single group shelter in South Texas. The decision was made over urgent objections from some of the administration’s own health and child welfare officials, who say both the facility and the region lack the specialized care the girls need.
That’s according to seven officials who work at the Office of Refugee Resettlement within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which takes custody of children who cross the border without a parent or legal guardian, or are separated from family by immigration authorities. The children remain in ORR’s care until they can be released to an adult or deported, or turn 18.
All of the officials asked not to be named for fear of retaliation.
Since late July, more than a dozen pregnant minors have been placed at the Texas facility, which is in the small border city of San Benito. Some were as young as 13, and at least half of those taken in so far became pregnant as a result of rape, the officials said. Their pregnancies are considered high risk by definition, particularly for the youngest girls.
“This group of kids is clearly recognized as our most vulnerable,” one of the officials said. Rank-and-file staff, the official said, are “losing sleep over it, wondering if kids are going to be placed in programs where they’re not going to have access to the care they need.”
The move marks a sharp departure from longstanding federal practice, which placed pregnant, unaccompanied migrant children in ORR shelters or foster homes around the country that are equipped to handle high-risk pregnancies.
The ORR officials said they were never told why the girls are being concentrated in a single location, let alone in this particular shelter in Texas. But they — along with more than a dozen former government officials, health care professionals, migrant advocates and civil rights attorneys — worry the Trump administration is knowingly putting the children at risk to advance an ideological goal: denying them access to abortion by placing them in a state where it’s virtually banned.
“This is 100% and exclusively about abortion,” said Jonathan White, a longtime federal health official who ran ORR’s unaccompanied children program for part of President Trump’s first term. White, who recently retired from the government, said the administration tried and failed to restrict abortion access for unaccompanied minors in 2017. “Now they casually roll out what they brutally fought to accomplish last time and didn’t.”
Asked if the administration is sending pregnant children to San Benito to restrict their access to abortion, HHS said in a statement that the allegation was “completely inaccurate.”
In an earlier statement, the department said that “ORR’s placement decisions are guided by child welfare best practices and are designed to ensure each child is housed in the safest, most developmentally appropriate setting, including for children who are pregnant or parenting.”
But several of the ORR officials took issue with the department’s statement. “ORR is supposed to be a child welfare organization,” one of them said. “Putting pregnant kids in San Benito is not a decision you make when you care about children’s safety.”
ORR’s acting director, Angie Salazar, instructed agency staff to send “any pregnant children” to San Benito beginning July 22, 2025, according to an internal email obtained as part of a six-month investigation by The California Newsroom and The Texas Newsroom, public media collaboratives that worked together to produce this story.
A copy of the July 22, 2025, email notifying ORR supervisors of the directive to send pregnant unaccompanied minors to a single shelter in San Benito, Texas. The move comes over objections from the government’s own health and child welfare officials.
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Several of the officials said a handful of pregnant girls have mistakenly been placed in other shelters because immigration authorities didn’t know they were pregnant when they were transferred to ORR custody.
Since the July order, none of the pregnant girls at the San Benito facility have experienced major medical problems, according to the ORR officials and Aimee Korolev, deputy director of ProBAR, an organization that provides legal services to children there. They said several of the girls have given birth and are detained with their infants.
But ORR officials interviewed for this story said they worry the shelter is only one high-risk pregnancy away from catastrophe.
“I feel like we’re just waiting for something terrible to happen,” one of the officials said.
‘Blown away by the level of risk’
There are dozens of ORR shelters or foster homes across the country that are designated to care for pregnant unaccompanied children, according to several of the ORR officials, with 12 in Texas alone. None of them could recall a time when all of the pregnant minors in the agency’s custody were concentrated in one shelter.
Detaining them in San Benito, Texas, doctors and public health experts said, is a dangerous gambit.
“It’s not good to be a pregnant person in Texas, no matter who you are,” said Annie Leone, a nurse midwife who recently spent five years caring for pregnant and postpartum migrant women and girls at a large family shelter not far from San Benito. “So, to put pregnant migrant kids in Texas, and then in one of the worst health care regions of Texas, is not good at all.”
The specialized obstetric care that exists in Texas is mostly available in its larger cities, hours from San Benito. And several factors, including the high number of uninsured patients, have eroded the availability of health care across the state.
Furthermore, Texas’ near-ban on abortion has been especially devastating to obstetric care. The law allows an exception in cases where the pregnant person’s life is in danger or one of her bodily functions is at risk, but doctors have been confused as to what that means.
Many doctors have left to practice elsewhere, and those who’ve stayed are often scared to perform procedures they worry could come with criminal charges. While Texas passed a law clarifying the exceptions last year, experts have said it may not be enough to assuage doctors’ fears.
Several maternal health experts listed the potential dangers for the girls at the San Benito shelter: If one of them develops an ectopic pregnancy (where the fertilized egg implants outside the uterus), if she miscarries or if her water breaks too early and she gets an infection, the emergency care she needs could be delayed or denied by doctors wary of the abortion ban.
Getting the care that is available could take too long to save her life or the baby’s, they added.
Adolescents are also more likely to give birth early, which can be life-threatening for both mother and baby. The youngest face complications during labor and delivery because their pelvises aren’t fully developed, said Dr. Anne-Marie Amies Oelschlager, an obstetrician in Washington state who specializes in adolescent pregnancy.
“These are young adolescents who are still going through puberty,” she said. “Their bodies are still changing.”
Pregnant girls who recently endured the often harrowing journey to the U.S. face even more risk, obstetrics experts said. Experts who work with migrant children say many are raped along the way and contract sexually transmitted infections that can be dangerous during pregnancy. Add to that little to no access to prenatal care or proper nourishment, and then the trauma of being detained.
“You couldn’t set up a worse scenario,” said Dr. Blair Cushing, who runs a women’s health clinic in McAllen, about 45 minutes from San Benito. “I’m kind of blown away by the level of risk that they’re concentrating in this facility.”
A history of problems
The San Benito shelter is owned and operated by Urban Strategies, a for-profit company that has contracted with the federal government to care for unaccompanied children for more than a decade, according to USAspending.gov.
Meliza Fonseca lives across the street from the San Benito shelter. She said she occasionally sees kids in the yard on weekends, “but for the most part, you don’t see them.”
Patricia Lim/KUT
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Patricia Lim/KUT
The main building, an old tan brick Baptist Church, occupies a city block in downtown San Benito, a quiet town of about 25,000. The church was converted to a migrant shelter in 2015 and was managed by two other contractors before Urban Strategies took it over in 2021.
On a fall day last year, there were no signs of activity at the facility, though children’s lawn toys and playground equipment were visible behind a wooden fence. A guard was stationed at one of the entrances.
“It’s pretty quiet, just like it is today,” said Meliza Fonseca, who lives nearby. “That’s the way it is every day.”
She said she occasionally sees kids playing in the yard on weekends, “but for the most part, you don’t see them.”
Reached by email, the founder and president of Urban Strategies, Lisa Cummins, wrote that the company is “deeply committed to the care and well-being of the children we serve,” and directed any questions about ORR-contracted shelters to the federal government.
When asked about the San Benito facility, HHS wrote that “Urban Strategies has a long-standing record of delivering high-quality care to pregnant unaccompanied minors, with a consistently low staff turnover.”
But the ORR officials who spoke with the newsrooms said that as recently as 2024, staff members at the shelter failed to arrange timely medical appointments for pregnant girls or immediately share critical health information with the federal agency and discharged some of them without arrangements to continue their medical care.
ORR barred the shelter from receiving pregnant girls from September to December of 2024 while Urban Strategies implemented a remediation plan, but the plan did not add staff or enhance their qualifications, the officials said.
Some of the officials said ORR’s leadership was provided with a list of shelters that are better prepared to handle children with high-risk pregnancies. All of those shelters are outside Texas, in regions where the full range of necessary medical care is available. Yet the directive to place them at San Benito remains in place.
“It’s cruel, it’s just cruel,” one of the officials said. “They don’t care about any of these kids. They’re playing politics with children’s health.”
‘A dress rehearsal’
Jonathan White, who ran ORR’s unaccompanied children program from January of 2017 to March of 2018, said he wasn’t surprised to learn that the new administration is moving pregnant unaccompanied children to Texas.
“I’ve been expecting this since Trump returned to office,” White said in an interview.
He said he views the San Benito order as a continuation of an anti-abortion policy shift that began in 2017, which “ultimately proved to be a dress rehearsal for the current administration.”
Scott Lloyd, the agency’s director at the time, denied girls in ORR custody permission to end their pregnancies, court records show. Lloyd also required the girls to get counseling about the benefits of motherhood and the harms of abortion and personally pleaded with some of them to reconsider.
“I worked to treat all of the children in ORR care with dignity, including the unborn children,” Lloyd told the newsrooms in an email.
In the fall of 2017, the American Civil Liberties Union filed a class action lawsuit against Lloyd and the Trump administration on behalf of pregnant girls in ORR custody. The ACLU argued that denying the girls abortions violated their constitutional rights, established by the Supreme Court in its 1973 Roe v. Wade decision.
Not long after the lawsuit was filed, White said, he received a late-night phone call from Lloyd, who had a request. He wanted White to transfer an unaccompanied pregnant girl who was seeking an abortion to a migrant shelter in Texas, where, under state law, it would have been too late for her to terminate her pregnancy. White said that he believed following the order would have been unlawful because it might have denied the girl access to legal relief under the lawsuit, so he refused. The girl was not transferred.
Lloyd, who has since left the government, acknowledged making the request but said he didn’t think it was illegal.
The lawsuit was settled in 2020; the first Trump administration agreed not to impede abortion access for migrant youth in federal custody going forward. Four years later, the Biden administration cemented the deal in official regulations: If a child who wanted to terminate her pregnancy was detained in a state where it was not legal, ORR had to move them to a state where it was.
That rule remains in place, and the agency appears to be following it: ORR has transferred two pregnant girls out of Texas since July, though the agency officials said one of the girls chose not to terminate her pregnancy.
But now that Trump is back in office, his administration is working to end the policy.
‘Elegant and simple’
Even before Trump won reelection, policymakers in his circle were planning a renewed attempt to restrict abortion rights for unaccompanied minors.
Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s blueprint for a politically conservative overhaul of the federal government, called for ORR to stop facilitating abortions for children in its care. The plan advised the government not to detain unaccompanied children in states where abortion is available.
Such a change is now possible, Project 2025 argued, because Roe v. Wade is no longer an obstacle. Since the Supreme Court overturned the landmark decision in 2022, there is no longer a federal right to abortion.
Upon returning to office, Trump signed an executive order “to end the forced use of Federal taxpayer dollars to fund or promote elective abortion.”
Then, in early July, the Department of Justice reconsidered a longstanding federal law, known as the Hyde Amendment, that governs the use of taxpayer money for abortion. The DOJ concluded that the government cannot pay to transport detainees from one state to another to facilitate abortion access, except in cases of rape or incest or to save the life of the mother.
And now, ORR is working to rescind the Biden-era requirement that pregnant girls requesting an abortion be moved to states where it’s available. On Jan. 23, the agency submitted the proposed change for government approval, though it has not yet published the details.
Several of the ORR officials who spoke with the newsrooms said it’s unclear whether children in the agency’s custody who have been raped or need emergency medical care will still be allowed to get abortions.
“HHS does not comment on pending or pre-decisional rulemaking,” the department wrote when asked for details of the regulatory change. “ORR will continue to comply with all applicable federal laws, including requirements for providing necessary medical care to children in ORR custody.”
The day the change was submitted, an unnamed Health and Human Services spokesperson told The Daily Signal, a conservative news site, “Our goal is to save lives both for these young children that are coming across the border, that are pregnant, and to save the lives of their unborn babies.”
Experts who spoke with the newsrooms said it’s unclear why the government would concentrate pregnant children in one Texas shelter, rather than disperse them at shelters throughout the state. But they said they’re convinced that the San Benito directive and the anti-abortion rule change are meant to work hand in hand: Once pregnant children are placed at the San Benito shelter, the new regulations could mean they cannot be moved out of Texas to get abortions — even if keeping them there puts them at risk.
“It’s so elegant and simple,” said White, the former head of the unaccompanied children program. “All they have to do is send them to Texas.”
Mark Betancourt is a freelance journalist and regular contributor to The California Newsroom.
Mose Buchele with The Texas Newsroom contributed reporting.
This story was produced by The California Newsroom and The Texas Newsroom. The California Newsroom is a collaboration of public media outlets that includes NPR, CalMatters, KQED (San Francisco), LAist and KCRW (Los Angeles), KPBS (San Diego) and other stations across the state. The Texas Newsroom is a public radio journalism collaboration that includes NPR, KERA (North Texas), Houston Public Media, KUT (Austin), Texas Public Radio (San Antonio) and other stations across the state.
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Trump claims US stockpiles mean wars can be fought ‘forever’; Kristi Noem testifies before Congress – US politics live
Trump says US stockpiles mean “wars can be fought ‘forever’”
In a late night post on Truth Social, Donald Trump said that the US munitions stockpiles “at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better”.
He added that the US has a “virtually unlimited supply of these weapons”, meaning that “wars can be fought ‘forever’”.
This comes after Trump said that the US-Israel war on Iran could go beyond the four-five weeks that the administration initially predicted. The president also did not rule out the possibility of US boots on the ground in Iran during an interview with the New York Post on Monday.
“I rebuilt the military in my first term, and continue to do so. The United States is stocked, and ready to WIN, BIG!!!,” he wrote.
Key events
During his opening remarks, Senate judicicary committee chairman, Chuck Grassley, blamed Democrats for the ongoing shutdown Department of Homeland Security (DHS) but highlighted four agencies: the Secret Service, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), and the Coast Guard.
Democrats are demanding tighter guardrails for federal immigration enforcement, but a sweeping tax bill signed into law last year conferred $75bn for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which means the agency is still functional amid the wider department shuttering.
In a late night post on Truth Social, Donald Trump said that the US munitions stockpiles “at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better”. He added that the US has a “virtually unlimited supply of these weapons”, meaning that “wars can be fought ‘forever’”.
This comes after Trump said that the US-Israel war on Iran could go beyond the four-five weeks that the administration initially predicted. The president also did not rule out the possibility of US boots on the ground in Iran during an interview with the New York Post on Monday.
“I rebuilt the military in my first term, and continue to do so. The United States is stocked, and ready to WIN, BIG!!!,” he wrote.
The embattled homeland security secretary, Kristi Noem, will answer questions from lawmakers on the Senate judiciary committee today.
This will be the first time she’s addressed members of Congress since federal immigration officers fatally shot two US citizens – Renee Good and Alex Pretti – during a surge of law enforcement in Minneapolis. The actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) throughout the crackdown drew condemnation from both parties. Now, a funding bill to keep Noem’s department open remains stalled on Capitol Hill. Democrats have pushed for stronger guardrails on immigration enforcement agents, while Republicans have called many of their demands (like the need for officers to appear visible and no longer wear masks while patrolling and making arrests) non-starters.
Several Democrats have also called for Noem to resign or risk impeachment.
We’ll bring you the latest lines as things get underway.
Donald Trump is in Washington today. We will hear from him at 11am when he welcomes German chancellor Friedrich Merz to the White House for a bilateral meeting. We’ll bring you the latest lines from that summit, particularly the president’s first in-person meeting with a close ally since the US-Israel war on Iran began. The conflict enters its fourth day, with six US service members killed and 787 Iranian casualties since strikes started on Saturday.
Later Trump will meet with energy secretary Chris Wright at 2pm ET. That will be closed to the press but we’ll let you know if the opens up. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Tehran wanted to talk but it was too late, as the United States continued its military operation against Iran.
“Their air defense, Air Force, Navy, and Leadership is gone. They want to talk. I said “Too Late!” Trump said in a Truth Social post commenting on an opinion piece.
Jessica Elgot Donald Trump has criticised Keir Starmer again over the UK’s refusal to aid the offensive strikes on Iran, saying the “relationship is obviously not what it was”.
Starmer had issued his strongest rebuke yet of Trump’s action in Iran, saying the UK did not believe in “regime change from the skies” and defended his decision not to allow the use of British bases to conduct the strikes.
But the prime minister said the UK would allow the use of its bases for defensive action to protect allied forces and nations in the Gulf and Middle East who have been hit by a wave of retaliatory strikes after the US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Speaking to the Sun, Trump compared Starmer’s actions unfavourably with France’s support for the strikes and with the backing of the Nato secretary general, Mark Rutte. “He has not been helpful. I never thought I’d see that. I never thought I’d see that from the UK. We love the UK,” he said.
“It’s a different world, actually. It’s just a much different kind of relationship that we’ve had with your country before. It’s very sad to see that the relationship is obviously not what it was.”
Dharna Noor
A North Carolina congressional primary on Tuesday is an early test of datacenter politics – a fight increasingly shaping elections nationwide.
In the Durham-area fourth district, Congresswoman Valerie Foushee is seeking her third term against progressive challenger Nida Allam, a Durham county commissioner she defeated in 2022. The heated rematch comes against the backdrop of a major datacenter battle in the district. Allam has come out staunchly against a massive new proposed facility, and is supporting a federal datacenter moratorium. Foushee, meanwhile, said she does not personally support the new development, but that datacenter decisions should be left to local leaders, not federal ones.
Until mid-February, Allam’s campaign donations dwarfed Foushee’s, thanks to Pacs such as Justice Democrats and gun control activist David Hogg’s Leaders We Deserve. In the last two weeks, that picture has changed dramatically as major Pacs have raced to back the incumbent.
Chief among them is Jobs and Democracy, a Super Pac whose sole disclosed donor is Anthropic, the AI firm behind Claude. The group has spent about $1.6m on Foushee’s re-election campaign since February 21.
Though Anthropic has no known links to the local datacenter proposal, opposition to it has left some local residents especially skeptical of all political funding tied to big tech.
Anthropic brands itself as safety-focused, making headlines in recent days for refusing the Pentagon’s demand for unfettered use of its products, though its tools have since reportedly been used in strikes on Iran. The company has backed some state AI safeguards and last year helped defeat a federal ban on state AI regulations. George Chidi The marquee matchup for the open US Senate seat in North Carolina will begin to resolve into focus Tuesday, with a well-known former Democratic governor and a Donald Trump-endorsed but untested Republican appearing to lead the field.
In the Democratic primary, former two-term governor Roy Cooper is ahead in recent polling against the slate of other candidates who have never held elected office. Cooper is widely seen among North Carolina’s Democrats as their best chance at flipping a Republican-controlled seat, now held by retiring US senator Thom Tillis, a conservative who has turned hard against the Trump administration on its handling of healthcare, defense and the Epstein file disclosures.
For Republicans, Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair, leads the field in polling, with his closest competitor, representative Don Brown, in the single digits.
Polling in both primaries has been relatively scant and may have masked softness in conservative support for Whatley. About half of the Republican electorate remains undecided heading to voting booths Tuesday.
Whatley has Trump’s endorsement, but that hasn’t stopped the grumbling on the right.
“The president made a horrible mistake forcing Whatley on us,” said Brant Clifton, who publishes the Daily Haymaker, a conservative news site in North Carolina. Whatley has been closely connected to Tillis over the years, which sullies him among voters for whom Tillis has become unpopular, Clifton said. “Trump spends a lot of time talking about how bad Tillis sucks and expressing his anger at Tillis, but here he is. He’s got the RNC working to shove Mike Whatley down our throats, but Tom Tillis and his wife are responsible for elevating Whatley out of obscurity to the state Republican party chairmanship.”
Homeland security secretary Kristi Noem is expected to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee later today, with funding for her department still stalled due to Democratic objections to its aggressive tactics.
It will be the first time Noem has appeared before the committee since two people were killed by federal immigration officers in Minneapolis in January.
Noem, appointed by Trump last year, also may field questions on other matters including possible threats to the United States after the US attacks on Iran and reports of disorder within her department.
The former South Dakota governor has overseen Trump’s immigration agenda, including the deployment of thousands of masked federal agents to US cities, where they have swept through neighborhoods in search of possible immigration offenders and clashed with residents. Noem is scheduled to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday and the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee on Wednesday.
President Trump hosts Germany’s Friedrich Merz later today for his first visit with a foreign leader since joining Israel in strikes on Iran.
The long-scheduled White House meeting was supposed to focus on the war in Ukraine and rocky EU-US trade relations, part of a wider effort to salvage frayed transatlantic ties.
But Trump’s signal that airstrikes against Iran could go on for weeks has upended the global agenda, with Tehran striking back against US bases and allies in the region, AFP reported.
Merz, a harsh critic of the Islamic republic’s leadership, said Berlin shared the Iranian people’s “relief” that the “mullah regime is coming to an end”. Yet he declined to “lecture” the United States and Israel on the legality of the Iran strikes aimed at ending Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs.
Hello and welcome to the US politics live blog.
With all members of Congress across both houses due to be briefed today on the Iran strikes, the Trump administration has presented a shifting new justification for its war.
Secretary of state Marco Rubio, defense secretary Pete Hegseth and general Dan Caine will brief the full membership of the House and Senate on Tuesday, with a possisble vote on parallel war powers measures to follow.
It comes after House speaker Mike Johnson suggested on Monday that the White House believed Israel was determined to act on its own, leaving the president with a “very difficult decision”. The Republican was speaking following a classified briefing at the Capitol, the first for congressional leaders since the start of the conflict, a joint US-Israel military campaign that killed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The strikes have quickly spiraled into a wider Middle East conflict, leaving hundreds of people dead, including at least six US military service personnel.
Johnson said the attack on Iran was a “defensive operation” because Israel was ready to act against Iran, “with or without American support”.
“The commander in chief has said this is going to be an operation that is short in duration,” Johnson said. “We certainly hope that’s true.”
Politico is reporting that he Senate could vote as early as Tuesday on senators Tim Kaine and Rand Paul’s measure to limit Trump’s strikes, followed by a separate House vote on a resolution from Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna. The Democrats’ strategy of forcing votes on war power resolutions has been portrayed as a way for Congress to reclaim its constitutional powers to declare war but have, so far, all failed.
In other developments:
In his first conference since the joint US-Israel operation against Iran, Donald Trump laid out his administration’s objectives moving forward. This includes destroying Iran’s missile capabilities, annihilating their navy, preventing Iran from ever having nuclear weapons, and ensuring the country “cannot continue to arm, fund and direct terrorist armies outside their borders”.
In a heated Pentagon press conference, Pete Hegseth initially said that US troops wouldn’t be in Iran, but later said he wouldn’t get into details. “We’re not going to go into the exercise of what we will or will not do,” he said. “This is not Iraq. This is not endless … Our generation knows better, and so does this president.”
US Central Command (Centcom) said that six service members have been killed in action, and eighteen have been seriously wounded in the US-Israel war on Iran.
The US state department is urging Americans to “depart now” from more than a dozen Middle Eastern countries, following the US-Israel strikes on Iran. Hundreds of thousands of travelers are currently stranded in the Gulf states, as the airspace over some of the world’s busiest airports, such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi, closed over the weekend.
Kuwait air defences mistakenly shot down three US F-15 fighter jets flying in Iran-related operations, the US Central Command (Centcom) said on Monday. All six crew members ejected safely, were safely recovered and in stable condition.
In an appearance on Fox News, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran’s “ballistic missile program and their atomic bomb program” would have been “immune within months” if the United States and Israel had not struck the country this weekend.
Trump says US stockpiles mean “wars can be fought ‘forever’”
DHS secretary to testify before Congress
Trump rebukes Starmer over UK refusal to back strikes on Iran
North Carolina kicks off some of first midterm primaries for key Senate and House races
Noem to face questions over immigration enforcement and DHS shutdown
Trump hosts Germany’s Merz for talks eclipsed by Middle East war
Congress to be briefed on Iran strikes ahead of vote over president’s war powers
News
Supreme Court blocks redrawing of New York congressional map, dealing a win for GOP
The Supreme Court
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The Supreme Court on Monday intervened in New York’s redistricting process, blocking a lower court decision that would likely have flipped a Republican congressional district into a Democratic district.
At issue is the midterm redrawing of New York’s 11th congressional district, including Staten Island and a small part of Brooklyn. The district is currently held by a Republican, but on Jan. 21, a state Supreme Court judge ruled that the current district dilutes the power of Black and Latino voters in violation of the state constitution.
GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, who represents the district, and the Republican co-chair of the state Board of Elections promptly appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, asking the justices to block the redrawing as an unconstitutional “racial gerrymander.” New York’s congressional election cycle was set to officially begin Feb. 24, the opening day for candidates to seek placement on the ballot.
As in this year’s prior mid-decade redistricting fights — in Texas and California — the Trump administration backed the Republicans.
Voters and the State of New York contended it’s too soon for the Supreme Court to wade into this dispute. New York’s highest state court has not issued a final judgment, so the voters asserted that if the Supreme Court grants relief now “future stay applicants will see little purpose in waiting for state court rulings before coming to this Court” and “be rewarded for such gamesmanship.” The state argues this is an issue for “New York courts, not federal courts” to resolve, and there is sufficient time for the dispute to be resolved on the merits.
The court majority explained the decision to intervene in 101 words, which the three dissenting liberal justices summarized as “Rules for thee, but not for me.”
The unsigned majority order does not explain the Court’s rationale. It says only how long the stay will last, until the case moves through the New York State appeals courts. If, however, the losing party petitions and the court agrees to hear the challenge, the stay extends until the final opinion is announced.
Dissenting from the decision were Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson. Writing for the three, Sotomayor said that if nonfinal decisions of a state trial court can be brought to highest court, “then every decision from any court is now fair game.” More immediately, she noted, “By granting these applications, the Court thrusts itself into the middle of every election-law dispute around the country, even as many States redraw their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 election.”
Monday’s Supreme Court action deviates from the court’s hands-off pattern in these mid-term redistricting fights this year. In two previous cases — from Texas and California — the court refused to intervene, allowing newly drawn maps to stay in effect.
Requests for Supreme Court intervention on redistricting issues has been a recurring theme this term, a trend that is likely to grow. Earlier last month the high court allowed California to use a voter-approved, Democratic-friendly map. California’s redistricting came in response to a GOP-friendly redistricting plan in Texas that the Supreme Court also permitted to move forward. These redistricting efforts are expected to offset one another.
But the high court itself has yet to rule on a challenge to Louisiana’s voting map, which was drawn by the state legislature after the decennial census in order to create a second majority-Black district. Since the drawing of that second majority-black district, the state has backed away from that map, hoping to return to a plan that provides for only one majority-minority district.
The Supreme Court’s consideration of the Louisiana case has stretched across two terms. The justices failed to resolve the case last term and chose to order a second round of arguments this term adding a new question: Does the state’s intentional creation of a second majority-minority district violate the constitution’s Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments’ guarantee of the right to vote and the authority of Congress to enforce that mandate?
Following the addition of the new question, the state of Louisiana flipped positions to oppose the map it had just drawn and defended in court. Whether the Supreme Court follows suit remains to be seen. But the tone of the October argument suggested that the court’s conservative supermajority is likely to continue undercutting the 1965 Voting Rights Act.
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