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Karol Nawrocki win deals blow to Poland’s EU agenda

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Karol Nawrocki win deals blow to Poland’s EU agenda

Karol Nawrocki, Poland’s newly elected president, is expected to block Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU reform agenda and offer fresh impetus to rightwing populists across the continent.

In a narrow run-off victory on Sunday, Nawrocki — a historian and political newcomer representing the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party — defeated Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate backed by Tusk’s centre-right Civic Coalition, with a vote margin of less than 2 per cent.

Nawrocki’s win is likely to exacerbate tensions between the presidency and government, scuppering a judicial overhaul that Tusk had pledged in 2023 in return for Brussels releasing billions of EU funds that were frozen during a rule of law dispute with the previous PiS government.

Nawrocki, an amateur boxer and self-confessed football hooligan from Gdańsk who has never held elected office, is expected to be more combative than outgoing President Andrzej Duda, another PiS nominee who frequently used his veto rights to block Tusk’s bills.

“He will be much worse for Tusk than Duda,” said Adam Leszczyński, director of the Gabriel Narutowicz Institute of Political Thought, a government-affiliated think-tank.

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“He is much more extreme in his views and he is coming into this presidency with a lot of resentment, after really getting a very personal beating from Tusk and his allies during the campaign.”

Nawrocki’s win is a big defeat for Tusk, whose own return to power less than two years ago was hailed by many as a breakthrough that would restore Warsaw’s standing in the EU at a time when Russia was waging the largest armed conflict on European soil since the second world war.

But the presidential race has revealed how Tusk’s premiership has failed to paper over divisions in a highly polarised society, as radical candidates on both ends of the political spectrum fared better than expected in the first round, endorsed in particular by younger voters.

The Polish vote was also a rare victory for the Maga movement abroad, after rightwing politicians emulating US President Donald Trump were defeated in elections in Canada, Australia and most recently Romania. It came before other key votes in central Europe, with Eurosceptic billionaire Andrej Babiš hoping to return as Czech prime minister this autumn, as well as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Europe’s longest-serving prime minister, who is both a Trump and Russia ally and is seeking re-election next year.

“You now have inside the EU another leader determined to sabotage many things,” said Leszczyński. “Nawrocki shares Orbán’s mindset, but with more aggression and less [negotiation] skills.”

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While Nawrocki had only briefly met Trump in the run-up to the election, some of the US president’s top officials were dispatched to Poland for a Conservative Political Action Conference there last week.

Jarosław Kaczyński, the 75-year-old PiS founder and long-standing Tusk nemesis, handpicked Karol Nawrocki © AFP via Getty Images

US homeland security secretary Kristi Noem endorsed Nawrocki at that conference, calling on Poles to “elect the right leader” and describing his rival Trzaskowski as “an absolute train wreck”.

“You will be the leaders that will turn Europe back to conservative values,” Noem said.

Sunday’s result is also a personal victory for Jarosław Kaczyński, the 75-year-old PiS founder and long-standing Tusk nemesis who handpicked Nawrocki, 42, a relatively unknown figure who led Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance.

Nawrocki is set to provide “a more radical and uncompromising presidency than Duda’s, possibly leading to an even more far-right government . . . than PiS ever was”, said Piotr Buras, head of the Warsaw bureau of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

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Sunday’s result showed that “the far-right, anti-EU, pro-Trump forces are stickier and more entrenched than many observers assumed”, said Matt Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University.

“The fight pitting liberal internationalists against pro-Trump, pro-Orbán populists is being joined, and Poland is one of the more important battlegrounds in what is likely a generational struggle within the world’s leading democracies.”

Nawrocki’s campaign gained momentum after he sealed a pact with Sławomir Mentzen of the far-right Confederation party, who won nearly 15 per cent of votes in the first round. Their agreement included pledges to oppose tax increases and protect gun ownership rights — priorities designed to appeal to Confederation’s libertarian base.

Nawrocki’s victory came despite fierce criticism for a series of personal scandals and alleged ties to criminals — accusations he denied. Kaczyński said on Sunday that his candidate had successfully navigated “a Niagara of lies”.

By contrast, Trzaskowski, a former government minister and member of the European parliament, was seen as an experienced candidate who had only narrowly lost to Duda in the presidential election in 2020.

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But Trzaskowski struggled to escape Tusk’s shadow, particularly over his government’s failure to enact promised reforms, including reversing a near-total ban on abortion that was introduced under PiS and maintained in part because of disagreements within Tusk’s coalition, which includes some socially conservative lawmakers.

Tusk acknowledged his government’s shortcomings and issued a rare apology in the final mass rally in Warsaw a week before the run-off — a gesture analysts say came too late.

Opinion polls had shown Trzaskowski in the lead throughout the campaign, but Nawrocki caught up with his rival, narrowing the gap to just two percentage points in the first round. Sunday’s upset victory is set to embolden voices within PiS pushing for early parliamentary elections and could create fresh tensions within Tusk’s unwieldy ruling coalition.

Before the run-off, Tusk ruled out snap elections. But Dorota Piontek, a political scientist at Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, said there would now probably be “a play for early elections and the takeover of power by PiS and Confederation, which means a conflict with the EU and a weakening of Poland’s position”.

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Here’s What the New Virginia House Map Looks Like

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Here’s What the New Virginia House Map Looks Like

Virginians approved a new congressional map on Tuesday that would aggressively gerrymander the state in the Democrats’ favor, giving the party as many as four more U.S. House seats.

The new map draws eight safely Democratic districts and two competitive districts that lean Democratic, according to a New York Times analysis of 2024 presidential results. It leaves just one safe Republican seat, compared with the five seats the G.O.P. holds on the current map.

The proposed map was drawn by Democratic state legislators and approved by Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat. It eliminates three Republican-held seats in part by slicing the densely populated suburbs in Arlington and Fairfax Counties and reallocating their overwhelmingly Democratic voters into five congressional districts, some stretching more than a hundred miles into Republican areas.

Perhaps the most extreme new district is the Seventh, which begins at the Potomac River and stretches to the west and south in a manner that resembles a pair of lobster claws. Several well-known Virginia Democrats have already announced their candidacies and begun campaigning in the district.

Reid J. Epstein contributed reporting.

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Southern Poverty Law Center indicted on federal fraud charges

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Southern Poverty Law Center indicted on federal fraud charges

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche speaks as FBI Director Kash Patel listens during a news conference at the Justice Department on Tuesday in Washington.

Jacquelyn Martin/AP


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Jacquelyn Martin/AP

WASHINGTON — The Southern Poverty Law Center was indicted Tuesday on federal fraud charges alleging it improperly raised millions of dollars to pay informants to infiltrate the Ku Klux Klan and other extremist groups, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said.

The Justice Department alleges the civil rights group defrauded donors by using their money to fund the very extremism it claimed to be fighting, with payments of at least $3 million between 2014 and 2023 to people affiliated with the Ku Klux Klan, the United Klans of America, the National Socialist Party of America and other extremist groups.

“The SPLC was not dismantling these groups. It was instead manufacturing the extremism it purports to oppose by paying sources to stoke racial hatred,” Blanche said.

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The civil rights group faces charges including wire fraud, bank fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering in the case brought by the Justice Department in Alabama, where the organization is based.

The indictment came shortly after SPLC revealed the existence of a criminal investigation into its program to pay informants to infiltrate extremist groups and gather information on their activities. The group said the program was used to monitor threats of violence and the information was often shared with local and federal law enforcement.

SPLC CEO Bryan Fair said the organization “will vigorously defend ourselves, our staff, and our work.”

Blanche said the money was passed from the center through two different bank accounts before being loaded onto prepaid cards to give to the members of the extremist groups, which also included the National Socialist Movement and the Aryan Nations-affiliated Sadistic Souls Motorcycle Club. The group never disclosed to donors details of the informant program, he said.

“They’re required to under the laws associated with a nonprofit to have certain transparency and honesty in what they’re telling donors they’re going to spend money on and what their mission statement is and what they’re raising money doing,” he said.

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The indictment includes details on at least nine unnamed informants were paid by the SPLC through a secret program that prosecutors say began in the 1980s. Within the SPLC, they were known as field sources or “the Fs,” according to the indictment. One informant was paid more than $1 million between 2014 and 2023 while affiliated with the neo-Nazi National Alliance, the indictment said. Another was the Imperial Wizard of the United Klans of America.

The SPLC said the program was kept quiet to protect the safety of informants.

“When we began working with informants, we were living in the shadow of the height of the Civil Rights Movement, which had seen bombings at churches, state-sponsored violence against demonstrators, and the murders of activists that went unanswered by the justice system,” Fair said. “There is no question that what we learned from informants saved lives.”

The center has been targeted by Republicans

The SPLC, which is based in Montgomery, Alabama, was founded in 1971 and used civil litigation to fight white supremacist groups. The nonprofit has become a popular target among Republicans who see it as overly leftist and partisan.

The investigation could add to concerns that Trump’s Republican administration is using the Justice Department to go after conservative opponents and his critics. It follows a number of other investigations into Trump foes that have raised questions about whether the law enforcement agency has been turned into a political weapon.

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The SPLC has faced intense criticism from conservatives, who have accused it of unfairly maligning right-wing organizations as extremist groups because of their viewpoints. The center regularly condemns Trump’s rhetoric and policies around voting rights, immigration and other issues.

The center came under fresh scrutiny after the assassination last year of conservative activist Charlie Kirk brought renewed attention to its characterization of the group that Kirk founded and led. The center included a section on that group, Turning Point USA, in a report titled “The Year in Hate and Extremism 2024” that described the group as “A Case Study of the Hard Right in 2024.”

FBI Director Kash Patel said last year that the agency was severing its relationship with the center, which had long provided law enforcement with research on hate crime and domestic extremism. Patel said the center had been turned into a “partisan smear machine,” and he accused it of defaming “mainstream Americans” with its “hate map” that documents alleged anti-government and hate groups inside the United States.

House Republicans hosted a hearing centered on the SPLC in December, saying it coordinated efforts with President Joe Biden’s Democratic administration “to target Christian and conservative Americans and deprive them of their constitutional rights to free speech and free association.”

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Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger Stressed Pragmatism, But Politics Hound Her

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Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger Stressed Pragmatism, But Politics Hound Her

On the night of her resounding win in last fall’s election for Virginia governor, Abigail Spanberger told her supporters that they had sent a message to the world. “Virginia,” she said in the opening lines of her victory speech, “chose pragmatism over partisanship.”

But even then it was clear that the first big issue of her term would be as partisan as it gets: a proposed amendment by her fellow Democrats to allow them to gerrymander the state’s 11 congressional districts.

The push to redraw the Virginia map was another salvo in a barrage of redistricting spurred by President Trump in a bid to keep Republicans in control of the House in this year’s midterm elections.

Virginians vote on Tuesday on whether to adopt the proposed map, and if the “Yes” vote wins, Democrats could end up with as many as 10 seats, up from the six they hold now. The redistricting battles of the last year would end up in something of a draw, with gains for Democrats in California and Virginia offsetting gains for Republicans in Texas, Missouri and North Carolina — unless Florida lawmakers decide in the coming weeks to draw a new, more Republican-friendly map.

Historically, redrawing of congressional maps has been done each decade after the U.S. census. But with Republicans holding such a slim majority in the House, Mr. Trump began by pressing Texas to redraw its maps, touching off the wave of gerrymandering

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Virginia Democratic legislators rolled out their redistricting plan last October, setting in motion the state’s lengthy amendment process just as the campaign for governor was entering its final weeks. At the time, Ms. Spanberger expressed support for the plan, though she emphasized that its passage was up to the legislature and then to the voters.

But even if her formal role in the process was relatively minor — Ms. Spanberger signed the bill setting the date for the referendum — the politics of the effort has loomed over the first few months of her term. Her support for the amendment has drawn accusations of hypocrisy from the right and complaints from some on the left that she has not been outspoken enough in her advocacy.

“There’s always going to be somebody who wants me to do something differently,” the governor said in an interview on Saturday at a rally in support of the amendment outside a home in Northern Virginia. “I will always make someone unhappy, and I will always make someone happy.”

Ms. Spanberger, a former C.I.A. officer and three-term congresswoman, won a 15-point victory in 2025 after running on a campaign focused on pocketbook issues. Centrism has been her political brand since she was first elected to the House in 2018, flipping a district that had long leaned to the right.

Now Republicans campaigning against the amendment have made Ms. Spanberger a prime target, deriding her as “Governor Bait-and-Switch” and highlighting an interview in August 2025 in which she said she had “no plans to redistrict Virginia.”

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“This was the perfect opportunity for her to show that she is the middle-of-the-road suburban mom that she portrayed herself as,” said Glen Sturtevant, a Republican state senator. He dismissed the notion that this was an effort that had been thrust upon her, pointing out that she had signed the bill setting the date for the referendum. “She is certainly an active participant in this whole process,” he said.

Republicans have eagerly highlighted recent polls suggesting that Ms. Spanberger’s honeymoon is over, though because governors in Virginia cannot serve two consecutive terms, public approval is less of a pressure point than it might be elsewhere. Some of her political adversaries have tied the drop in her ratings to her involvement in the campaign for the amendment.

But a number of factors are at play in those sagging poll numbers. Some on the right are irked by her support of standard Democratic priorities like gun control measures and limits to cooperation with federal immigration agents.

But some of the most vociferous criticism of her from Republicans, up to and including the president, has been for a host of proposed taxes and tax hikes in the legislature — on everything from dog grooming to dry cleaning — that she in fact had nothing do with. Most of those taxes, which were floated by various lawmakers, never even came up for a vote.

But Ms. Spanberger did not publicly hit back against these attacks until recent days, a delay that some Democrats say was costly.

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“She let other people define her,” said Scott Surovell, the State Senate majority leader.

Mr. Surovell’s frustration echoed a growing discontent among Democrats about the governor’s recent moves. For all the Republican criticism of her, some operatives and lawmakers said, Ms. Spanberger has not been aggressive enough in pushing for Democratic priorities, redistricting among them.

This criticism broke out into the open in recent days, after the governor made scores of amendments to bills that had passed the General Assembly. Some lawmakers and Democratic allies accused her of unexpectedly diluting long-sought goals like expanded public sector unions and a legal retail marketplace for cannabis.

“Our party base is looking for us to stand up and fight and advocate and deliver,” said Mr. Surovell, who represents a solidly Democratic district in Northern Virginia. “It’s hard to deliver when you’re standing in the middle of the road.”

In the interview, Ms. Spanberger insisted that she supported the purpose of many of the bills but had to make amendments to ensure that her administration could implement them.

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And she said she had been explicit in her support of the redistricting effort, appearing in statewide TV ads encouraging people to vote “Yes” even as an anti-amendment campaign has sent out mailers suggesting that the governor opposes the effort.

But she said she had never been in a position to barnstorm the state as Gov. Gavin Newsom did in the months leading up to the redistricting referendum that passed in California. Mr. Newsom is a second-term governor in a much bluer state, she said, while she only recently took office and has been “in the crush of their legislative session,” with hundreds of bills to read and examine in a short period.

“Those who may not be focused on the governing and only on the politics, they’re going to want me to do politics 100 percent of the time,” she said. “And for people who care about the governing and not the politics, they’re going to want me to do governing 100 percent of the time.”

Her preference, as she has often made apparent, is for the governing over the politicking. But she acknowledged that it is all part of the job.

Asked if she lamented that the highest-profile issue of her term so far was such a polarizing matter, rather than the cost-of-living policies she emphasized on the campaign trail, she said: “Any person in elected office wants to talk about the thing they want to talk about all the time, and that’s it. So I won’t say ‘No’ to that question.”

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