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How the Nation Swung Back to Trump in 2024
Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, shifted red in 2016, blue in 2020 and back to red in 2024.
How the shifts are calculated: In 2020, Joseph R. Biden, Jr., won Pennsylvania by 1.2 percentage points. In 2024, Mr. Trump won the state by 1.9 points, as of Wednesday evening. The gap between those margins is the shift, which in this case is 3.1 points in favor of Republicans.
Other swing states
The four other swing states that have been called so far also moved to the right, sealing Mr. Trump’s second presidential win. In Georgia, Mr. Trump reversed two consecutive blue shifts.
Cities and suburbs
While Mr. Trump lost to Kamala Harris in many swing state cities and suburbs, he did so by a smaller margin than he lost to now-President Biden in 2020. In all but one example shown below, two blue shifts in 2016 and 2020 were followed by a red shift in 2024.
Philadelphia suburbs
4 counties
Mecklenburg Co., N.C. (Charlotte)
1 county
Wayne Co., Mich. (Detroit)
1 county
Detroit suburbs
5 counties
Atlanta and suburbs
16 counties
Rural-urban divide
Around the country, in counties where nearly all votes are in, the trend was similar. Support for Mr. Trump continued to increase in rural counties, while Ms. Harris lost ground in cities and suburbs.
Urban counties
97 counties
Suburban counties
510 counties
Rural counties
2,142 counties
Race and ethnicity
Mr. Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters in 2020. In this election, he continued to grow his margins in counties with large populations of Hispanic residents. There were also shifts to the right in counties with large populations of Black and Native American residents.
Hispanic-majority counties
86 counties
Native-American majority counties
17 counties
Black-majority counties
80 counties
Educational attainment
Mr. Trump’s margins widened over the past three elections in counties with large populations of residents without college degrees. But in this election, he also gained ground in counties with a high share of college graduates.
Less-educated counties
2,460 counties
More-educated counties
285 counties
Economic types
In 2024, Mr. Trump’s support in farming counties continued to grow. He also reversed Democratic gains in mining and manufacturing counties.
Farming counties
417 counties
Mining counties
206 counties
Manufacturing counties
480 counties
Age
Mr. Trump has generally been more popular with older voters, but his electoral performance improved across other age groups.
Younger counties
101 counties
Middle-age counties
521 counties
Older counties
323 counties
Across the country
In all 34 states where at least 95 percent of votes were in as of Wednesday evening, the vote margin for Mr. Trump had increased, even in places that historically favored Democrats.